The Wallabies are tired. They are playing a game of high-intensity collisions after being in too many collisions this year, against high-intensity tacklers.
If they keep running into Englishman at medium speed and with tired bones, they will not score enough tries to win the third Test, even if they have 80 per cent of the possession.
Eight of the top ten Super Rugby ball carriers (by number of carry) are Australian. Carrying the ball a hundred times or more in Super Rugby involves sustaining considerable G-forces.
Five of those are Wallabies who just tried to dent the fortified English line for two futile Tests, including 121-carry Sean McMahon, who is tasked with ramming through Chris Robshaw and Billy Vunipola at close range. Also, Tevita Kuridrani (112 Super Rugby carries) will attempt to run over Mike Brown and the English wingers.
Coach Michael Cheika is using the Pink Floyd attack game plan: ‘Run’. Or maybe it is the ‘Runny Nose’ attack.
Running is fun. But it usually ends in a tackle, and if the carrier is tired or sore, often that tackle ends in a turnover or stagnation. Building phases from 50-60 metres out is exhausting.
The problem with this plan is Cheika’s runners are tired, their bodies are sore, and players like Michael Hooper have played 960 minutes of Super Rugby this season. (That means Hooper has played every minute of every Waratah game).
Scott Fardy is running with the ball as if it outweighs him; he is barely galloping for five metres before falling meekly to the turf, the ball lost. But he has played 922 hard minutes for the Brumbies.
Dean Mumm’s carries make Fardy’s look impressive. ‘Paper’ and ‘bag’ come to mind. But Mumm has played more than 900 minutes of Super Rugby, too.
The average Super Rugby loose forward runs 5,000 metres a match, in distances that are typically 14 metres, 15 metres, or maybe 18-20 metres. At the end of each of those runs is usually a tackle, a clean, a carry, or a breakdown. These impacts have G-forces, and when they are not running (at a scrum or lineout or restart), they are pushing or lifting or trying to catch and landing from a height.
We know this is tiring, from common sense. But we can look at the running patterns of first and second half in Super Rugby and note the drop off. The average forward in Super Rugby runs 2,539 metres in the first half, but ‘only’ 2,251 metres in the second half. (Loose forwards run more, but the drop off is the same).
The average full sprint for a forward in the first half is 20 metres – the average full sprint in the second half is closer to 16 metres. (The duration in time of a full sprint falls by 0.3 seconds; minimal but meaningful).
Backs are able to maintain speed in the second half better, but they still tire as the season wears on, and they go into a dead sprint 11 times a game on average, with the majority of their high G-force impacts being in the first half. It seems that backs are able to avoid high impact collisions more as the game wears on.
Israel Folau and Dane Haylett-Perry ran more than almost anyone in Super Rugby (142 and 143 time, respectively). Yes, Folau is seldom hit hard in the tackle because he has great body control and elusive movement, but getting hit well over a hundred times in a few months by the likes of Eben Etzebeth and Brodie Retallick.
Forwards average ten ‘impacts’ per minute; backs have seven per minute.
Cheika is asking the players with the highest number of carries, the highest number of minutes, the highest degree of wear and tear, to run into a white wall of tacklers.
Small wonder that it has not worked well, yet.
Eelboy
Guest
Agree 100%. He shows no diplomacy skills when talks to refs. His line out throwing is inconsistent & was lucky not to be penalised more often as he throws a lot of cheap shots.
AlexG
Guest
"they seem unable to chase a kick with any real conviction" Learning to chase kicks-in-play effectively is a learned skill. Its a matter of training, drills and knowing your game plan. It is about 2% natural ability, and 98% rehearsing. The designated kickers (there should be at least three) AND the rest of the team all need to work on the same drills. You can train monkeys to do this. The kickers need to have a reasonable amount of ability, but these players exist. Foley, Genia, Beale, Cooper, Giteau, Mitchell. There are plenty more also. Its not lack of players, but selecting them, and most of all, training them and the team to work together. This skill was neglected under Deans, neglected under McKenzie, and now it seems its being neglected under Cheika as well.
RB
Guest
love to see this data as well!
lassitude
Guest
Robbie Deans verbalised a statement early in his tenure of ‘playing what was in front of you’. Yes. And he got bagged from all comers in the Oz press and blogs who said "we have no idea what he's talking about" !! I was amazed. It appeared that some of the players didn't get it either. If you can't grasp the idea immediately how much longer is the path to actualization ? It's like the great McQueen era of real smart play had already been flushed in 7 years - how could that happen ?
lassitude
Guest
Bring back real rucking ? Yes please. It won't happen though for a number of reasons. One of them is simply that NZ rugby will shoot so far ahead it mind as well not play anyone else !! Rucking was an NZ construct that was, in particular, honed and developed in Otago and Southland and spread to the rest of the country. It did get traction in Scotland though so they might enjoy it's re-introduction. Reducing rucking was one way to bring the A.Bs back to the field - and even that hasn't worked very well in the middle term.
RB
Guest
Vunipola was averaging 12 carries a game in Six nations and in the premiership which matches McMahon at both his 'club' level and at the higher international level.
wardad
Guest
Cheers Carlos ,man oh man I must have been way fitter than I realised back then ! When our Welsh Warrant Officer PTI berated me for hating running he said " what are you going to do lad if your out numbered 100 to one and the enemy come charging over the hill ?" ......." not run away and win a VC Sir ?!" LIke you say though us forwards dont need to run like gazelles to do our job ,better to be able to keep going doing the heavy work like pack horses !
RB
Guest
Tiredness could be a reason. Would not the English be tireder still? They have played way more rugby and due to Northern season for a way longer period without a break.
RobC
Roar Guru
Six points would make me chant. Alas, no!... Thus the rant.
moaman
Roar Guru
Carlos I presume you are talking about G Henry? Would love to read a piece on that meeting and what was discussed,how he came across etc....
Nambawan
Guest
These days there is far more one out bash and barge running in union than there is in league! So called 'pick and drive'plus head down barging one pass off the ruck has become monotonously prevalent in union. To this observer of both codes only Kiwi teams have backs and forwards with class ball playing skills.
moaman
Roar Guru
Carlos I enjoy the Super comp but regard it as another step to International rugby which I love. So I am not one of those that grumbles when a Keiran Read sits out the first 3 games etc. It's all for the greater good as far as I am concerned. The NZRU has seemed to be aware of player-burnout and tried to implement methods to deal with it since well back in the mid 2000s at least. More diligent students of the game will no doubt know more about it than casual observers like me.
taylorman
Roar Guru
Oh? So one one hand the NH sides are the only ones that can use the potential excuse that they may be exhausted due to non stop play since the World Cup, yet at the same time, it's not acceptable to accept the Wallabies my be fitter, a natural conclusion of the above. Can't really have it both ways Neil. I mean is this English team exhausted, or fitter?
Carlos the Argie
Roar Guru
Totally agree, Moaman. It seems that the "rest" period the All Black players get before or during the S18 actually pays off. The NZ public and TV audience may hate it but it results in better AB performance. As I said before, Henry said that managing rest was his most important issue. Hansen is not changing this.
moaman
Roar Guru
Ray Why? Should they players not have the right to sing or not sing according to their own wishes? I would love to hear your thoughts on this Ray.
moaman
Roar Guru
Harry We have seen in the 3N and 4N series prior to the last two WCs that NZ and RSA both chose to rest and rotate key players whilst Oz ( from memory ) did not. I think NZ, at least, has long recognised that these top players simply cannot run at near peak for 8-9 months of the year without something giving. The Australian players get flogged; maybe if they took the opportunities to rest key players they could also build some depth and experience below them? It was remarkable that the Wallabies made it to the WC Final last year when you think about it. But results in Super/June this year show that the bubble has burst.
moaman
Roar Guru
Matt Dunning played 10,Don?
Harry Jones
Expert
I took a look at the English squad's players' relative workload (for convenience, I looked at minutes, carries, and tackles, as well as how back-to-back their minutes were). Robshaw has played less minutes, carried far less, and had more breaks than his Aussie loosie opponents.
HiKa
Roar Rookie
140th anniversary of Custer's demise this Saturday. You may be interested in the historical context given by the following piece: http://dailykos.com/stories/1541553
Carlos the Argie
Roar Guru
Wardad, of course 20 minutes for a 5K is a good time. The world record is around 12 minutes and change. But the guys that run that time don't look like props or locks. I used the 20 minutes time because it requires pretty darned good running technique and fitness. There are some published studies, Harry used one, that measures running by players. And it seems that indeed they run between 5 and 6K per match. However, the most important statistic is the proportion of time running at each speed. Backs run longer time and distance at faster speeds. Forwards tend to run at slower speeds, naturally. These statistics have helps prepare the fitness of players for the game. And remember that running isn't everything (Sorry Harry!), they have to hit, jump, push, etc., and this takes enormous degrees of energy too. Combining running fitness with power is the "art" of fitness preparation for rugby.