By the bye: Brisbane, Fremantle, Geelong, GWS, Hawthorn, North Melbourne

Today we continue a look at how the AFL season has unravelled so far, in comparison to my own predictions made at the start of the season.

We’ve already covered 12 of the clubs, so let’s turn our attention to Brisbane, Fremantle, Geelong, Greater Western Sydney, Hawthorn and North Melbourne.

Brisbane

Pre-season right: “It was pleasing to see Mitch Robinson get some recognition up north, as he was unfairly maligned at Carlton. He’s a good player.”

Pre-season wrong: “This club has a chance to be seen in a more positive light six months from now than they are today.”

Ladder: 17th
Wins: Gold Coast
Losses: West Coast, North Melbourne, Geelong, Western Bulldogs, Sydney, Port Adelaide, Collingwood, Melbourne, Hawthorn, Carlton, Fremantle, West Coast

Where to start with the poor old Brisbane Lions?

The start of the season is the best place, where they were handed a draw that meant they were to play five of this year’s finalists in the first six rounds, in a year where the gap between eighth and ninth has probably never been greater.

You can argue that the Lions only had one winnable game in their first six matches, and they won it, against the Suns in a feisty Q-Clash. Neither team has won since then.

Brisbane performed respectably enough against the competition’s strongest sides in that opening run, despite missing Dayne Beams for the entire run and Tom Rockliff for a period, but it appeared to take its toll. From Round 7 on, the bottom has fallen out, and the Lions have lost all eight games by an average margin of 60 points, with six of those matches against non-finalists.

Melbourne fans were heard to bemoan a win of only 63 points against them. Richmond supporters wanted to raze the MCG after beating them by only 42 points.

Players have been in and out of the side, game style has gone from a focus on attack to retaining possession, but Justin Leppitsch has been shuffling deckchairs on the Titanic. Only one club has used more than Brisbane’s 36 players, so we’ve been getting a look at the list. Individuals have talent, but the whole is nowhere close to cohesive.

Is Leppitsch the man to take them forward? His coaching credentials can be questioned, given his mentor is Damien Hardwick, who left something to be desired in his time at the helm of Richmond. Rarely does a man under fire for as long as Leppitsch has been, go onto keep his job and have success.

Predicted wins: 2-3
Predicted ladder: 17th
All-Australian contenders: None

Fremantle

Pre-season right: “Neale is getting better and better. Tough, moves well, and keeps going all day on the inside and outside.”

Pre-season wrong: Predicted to finish second.

Ladder: 15th
Wins: Essendon, Brisbane, Port Adelaide
Losses: Western Bulldogs, Gold Coast, West Coast, North Melbourne, Carlton, Adelaide, GWS, Hawthorn, Richmond, St Kilda, Collingwood

It’s not even 100 days ago when Fremantle were considered among the top premiership fancies for 2016. The fall was so swift and brutal it feels like ages ago that it was even a story.

Ross Lyon accepted his fate early, and from about Round 4 or 5 every injury to one of his players, however minor, has been greeted with a push to have them out for the season, and then working back from there.

Of the 15 Dockers to have played 12 or more games to this point of the season, 14 of them were in Fremantle’s nominal best 22 at the start of the year, but the missing players have been vital – Nat Fyfe, Michael Johnson, Aaron Sandilands, Harley Bennell and David Mundy. Of those, only Mundy is back in the side, or likely to be.

The loss of Alex Pearce is unfortunate too, as the young defender with All-Australian potential would have benefited greatly from a full season learning his craft.

Connor Blakely and Lachie Weller have already won Rising Star nomination this year, and Darcy Tucker could snare one. Matthew Taberner continues to show promise and Hayden Crozier is reaping the benefits of his first extended run in the side along with a move to half-back.

Lyon has four more years on his contract, so has the time to propel his team back up the ladder, and it could happen quickly with some canny trading and a fully fit 2017 list. The list change at the end of the season could be extreme, and will be watched closely by all.

The future is both unknown and exciting at Fremantle.

Predicted wins: 4-5
Predicted ladder: 15th
All-Australian contenders: Lachie Neale

Geelong

Pre-season right: “Their midfield is powerful and their forward line potentially dangerous. They’re in the ball game.”

Pre-season wrong: “Is there a place for both Stanley and Smith in the side, given each is best suited to the number one ruck role?”

Ladder: third
Wins: Hawthorn, Brisbane, Essendon, Port Adelaide, Gold Coast, West Coast, Adelaide, GWS, North Melbourne, Western Bulldogs
Losses: GWS, Collingwood, Carlton, St Kilda

Most predicted Geelong to rise back up the ladder after recruiting Patrick Dangerfield, but few spoke about the idea of how much better he would be as a player at the Cats. Given he has improved his own game, which we can put down to his overall happiness, Geelong got more of a bargain than it looked at the time.

The Dangerfield-Joel Selwood combination has exceeded expectations, to the point that the Cats are deserved premiership favourites at this point of the season, even if they do have a disconcerting habit of dropping matches against lower sides. Lachie Henderson, another player traded in over the off-season, has proven his worth too and is getting better as the season goes on.

They only play three top eight sides between now and finals, with all of them taking place at Simonds Stadium, so they are in prime position to finish top two and not have to leave Victoria during finals.

The rest of the home-and-away season will be about finalising their best 22 while also giving the next half a dozen players enough game time to ensure they are AFL-ready come September.

Where does Mitch Clark fit in? Can Scott Selwood cement a spot when he gets his chance? Will Steven Motlop get dropped at some point as a pre-finals wake-up call? Can Daniel Menzel’s body hold up?

Five years after their last premiership, Geelong are right back at the pointy end of the race again.

Predicted wins: 17
Predicted ladder: first
All-Australian contenders: Patrick Dangerfield, Joel Selwood, Harry Taylor

Greater Western Sydney

Pre-season right: “GWS have played their best football when running the ball with young legs and slick movement. They’ll be looking for their second tier mids to make the transition to top level.”

Pre-season wrong: “Tom Scully is a decent player that will have a 200-game career, while never reaching great heights.”

Ladder: fourth
Wins: Geelong, Port, St Kilda, Hawthorn, Fremantle, Gold Coast, Western Bulldogs, Sydney, Essendon, Carlton
Losses: Melbourne, Sydney, Adelaide, Geelong

GWS are one of the on-field feel-good stories of 2016, but accompanied by off-field acrimony with questions of whether they have been gifted whatever success comes their way.

The Giants were set-up to become as competitive as possible as quickly as possible, and they have been able to harness the draft largesse sent their way by stockpiling young talent to the point of overflowing coffers.

They have complemented these draft picks with canny experienced acquisitions like Heath Shaw, Shane Mumford, Steve Johnson, Ryan Griffen and Joel Patfull, who were either unwanted by their previous clubs, dissatisfied there, or not wanted badly enough.

In the meantime, players poached from other clubs to help start-up the Giants, like Callan Ward, Tom Scully and Phil Davis, are key figures, both through leadership and on-field exploits.

It’s a heady mix that has come together in explosive style in 2016, and one that is likely to only get stronger.

If GWS need to fill a hole with experience, they can use Shaw, Johnson and Patfull as selling points as to how it will work, and with a high probability of success, why won’t we see veteran free agents move there?

Highly talented academy players are also feeding through the pipeline, which GWS receive for under the odds through combinations of draft picks. And how do they get these draft picks? By trading out some of the elite talent they have sitting in the NEAFL.

Jack Steele, Adam Tomlinson, Caleb Marchbank and Will Hoskin-Elliott will fetch a nice price at auction, with plenty of interested clubs to bid on them. The cycle will continue.

Oh yes, GWS will be casting a Giant shadow over the competition for some time yet as Ryan Buckland wrote a month ago, and it may well start this season if they can maintain their form through September, and if their lack of finals experience doesn’t tell when the heat is on.

Predicted wins: 16-17
Predicted ladder: second
All-Australian contenders: Toby Greene, Tom Scully, Heath Shaw, Dylan Shiel, Callan Ward

Hawthorn

Pre-season right: “The end will come for their day of constant contention, but it won’t be this year.”

Pre-season wrong: “Hawthorn can cover those that have left, but their depth is starting to look on the thin side.”

Ladder: first
Wins: West Coast, Western Bulldogs, St Kilda, Adelaide, Richmond, Fremantle, Brisbane, Melbourne, Essendon, North Melbourne, Gold Coast
Losses: Geelong, GWS, Sydney

Will they or won’t they?

That’s the question surrounding the Hawks, as they attempt to become ‘Fourthorn’ with a fourth consecutive premiership. I’m saying they won’t given they are on top of the ladder by fluke more than ability in.

Hawthorn are playing in fits and starts, which is unlikely to get the job done in September, and they will be found out along the way. They’re not as strong around the ball as they were and they’re not dominating possession or controlling the ball like they once did.

Nor are they attacking or defending as effectively, conceding more points in defence and scoring less than in attack. They’re about a four-goal worse side this season than they were last.

Of course, their finals experience is invaluable, and there will be players in opposition sides in September that have played less AFL matches than guys like Luke Hodge, Sam Mitchell, Jordan Lewis, Josh Gibson and Grant Birchall have played finals. It will count for something.

The Hawks are going to have to find improvement, though, and it’s going to have to come from the system rather than players, given there aren’t any standout best 22 players to come back in.

Predicted wins: 16
Predicted ladder: sixth
All-Australian contenders: Jack Gunston, Sam Mitchell

North Melbourne

Pre-season right: “Potential finalists again? Sure. Premiership threat? No.”

Pre-season wrong: “Scott Thompson doesn’t appear to be the force he was. Robbie Tarrant played some decent footy last year, but has his limitations.”

Ladder: fifth
Wins: Adelaide, Brisbane, Melbourne, Fremantle, Gold Coast, Western Bulldogs, St Kilda, Essendon, Carlton, Richmond
Losses: Sydney, Geelong, Hawthorn, Adelaide

North were the surprise packet of the opening nine rounds of the season, undefeated and sitting two wins clear at that point.

The knock was that they hadn’t beaten enough teams of substance, and their friendly draw wasn’t in evidence based on their percentage, which at the time was the fifth best in the competition.

All of those chickens have come home to roost for North, and they now occupy fifth spot on the ladder, which could turn into seventh if results go against them. It’s a more fitting region.

That said, the Roos have been struck by injuries to important players at just the wrong time over the last five weeks, which have seen losses to Sydney, Geelong, Hawthorn and Adelaide.

Shaun Higgins is a huge loss as their most creative player in the forward-half, Jarrad Waite’s form had tapered after a hot start but he is still the number one key forward, and Daniel Wells is starting to struggle for continuity.

Todd Goldstein appears to be carrying something, Ben Cunnington missed an important game and was half-lame in another, as did Andrew Swallow. Ben Jacobs is an important part of the midfield whose absence is being felt.

For a side that needs most things to go right to be a legitimate flag and top four contender, North are being found out when they’ve had things go wrong. They don’t have that Hawthorn-like ability to scrounge out four points.

It’s hard to see them coming up as anything but short once more, starting finals from the bottom half of the eight as they’ve done in the last two years.

Predicted wins: 15
Predicted ladder: seventh
All-Australian contenders: Robbie Tarrant, Daniel Wells, Jack Ziebell

Cam Rose’s predicted ladder after Round 23
1. Geelong
2. Greater Western Sydney
3. Sydney
4. Western Bulldogs
5. Adelaide
6. Hawthorn
7. North Melbourne
8. West Coast
9. Port Adelaide
10. Carlton
11. Melbourne
12. St Kilda
13. Richmond
14. Collingwood
15. Fremantle
16. Gold Coast
17. Brisbane
18. Essendon