Why Queensland will win State of Origin Game 3

A whitewash looms for a refreshed New South Wales side. For Queensland, it’s a further chance to cement a unique and remarkable legacy that’s been building since Johnathan Thurston and Cameron Smith first pulled on the maroon jumper.

Game 2 was simply the opposite of Game 1. Both teams came to play, having been particularly guarded, even by Origin standards, in the series opener.

There were intercept tries, winger tries, a great chase from Tyson Frizell that will go down as one of the great ‘almost’ moments of Origin, halves playing games with opposition defences, and enough twists to make both teams believe anything was possible.

Origin football at its best, in stark contrast to the dire hitup-fest that was Game 1.

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Sadly for NSW, with Adam Reynolds’ early departure from the match, it was a case of two against one. Johnathan Thurston and Cooper Cronk were magnificent, and Cameron Smith earned man of the match plaudits for a masterful display of control from the base of the ruck.

What to take out of two deeply contrasting examples then, and how does is all apply to the final Origin of 2016?

I don’t see another 6-4 game at ANZ Stadium this time around. There was a bit of rain around Sydney over the weekend, but the last two days have been dry and sunny, with tomorrow dry but chilly. It could be down as low as nine degrees by the time the game kicks off, which could be a rude shock to Queenslanders travelling from their base on the Gold Coast (then again, NSW do train out of the similarly lovely Coffs Harbour).

So let’s ditch all this talk about wet-track, dry-track, and focus on what matters – who’s going to play better football tonight?

Queensland are a well-oiled machine. Arguably, they’ve weakened their team by including Nate Myles, who’s coming in on limited game time, but he is a seasoned performer and has the temperament required for Origin. He makes no mistakes, runs educated lines and will tackle as long as he’s on the field.

I don’t think he’ll spend long out there though. Josh McGuire will likely play more minutes from the bench than Myles does as a starter, and Jacob Lillyman will also see a lot of action.

If those three, along with Matt Scott, hold parity against what is a very good NSW forward pack, they’ll have earned their post-match XXXX.

Where the Maroons have the distinct advantage is around the edges, where Darius Boyd, Johnathan Thurston, Cooper Cronk and Cameron Smith have been terrific.

It’s not that these guys do anything particularly flashy, but the execution of all the plays is a level above what NSW are capable of producing right now – when you’ve played 20-odd games together at representative level, you’d expect them to execute better than James Maloney and Jack Bird.

The team that New South Wales have selected scares me. Laurie Daley has brought in players who will be prototypical rugby league examples in the future.

Jack Bird and James Tedesco don’t fit a traditional style of any position, which is perhaps why Bird’s been shopped around from the halves to the centres at club level. What they both do is run particularly well, are big for the position they play, and can break tackles through the ferocity of their play. Both are also good defenders, with Tedesco’s positioning in defence a step above the man he’s replacing, Matt Moylan. That immediately means fewer headaches for Laurie Daley when Cronk, Thurston and Smith have the ball in their hand close to the line.

But you can’t expect excellent players to gel within 80 minutes. As a Queensland fan, selections like these do make me worry about next year, but the focus for this match will be on who can deliver their outside backs the better quality ball. And nine times out of ten I believe the answer to that question to be Queensland.

Put Josh Dugan up against Greg Inglis, Michael Jennings up against Justin O’Neill, or compare the wingers, and I don’t see any upper hand for either team.

If NSW get a roll on in the forwards then they hold the distinct advantage, possessing big bodies who also can use footwork and deceptive pace to bully their Queensland opponents.

But at 1, 6, 7 and 9, Queensland are a dominant prospect.

For that reason, they will win Game 3 and take out a hard-fought, entertaining series in a whitewash.