Injury has once again robbed us of an excellent on-paper match up, as our lone top eight play off for Round 19 moves from mouth-watering to somewhat middling.
Still, the Cats have been up-and-down, and the Dogs have done some interesting things at the selection table. Let’s get to it.
First up, permit me to yank out my soapbox. Mitch Wallis and Jack Redpath suffered season-ending injuries in Round 18; Wallis breaking both bones in his leg and Redpath injuring the ACL in his left knee for the second time.
These are not good things.
However, I do sense that the football media, so keen to up antes, may have gone too far this time. Reports of Wallis’ injury in particular, and the impact on his teammates, were described like someone had died in the middle of Etihad Stadium. Take this passage from an article published across News Limited, written by Tim Hodges who was working with the ABC’s Saturday night team.
Hodges was down in the rooms, and witnessed this all first hand – a tough task, undoubtedly. But this is, well, I think it speaks for itself.
A football club was in shock, as a broken star couldn’t be helped for his torture.
The more ambulance staff attempted to move the trolley he was on, the more the anguish.
These were haunting sounds, which will live with these young Dogs forever.
And that’s when Gerard [Whately, who was hosting the ABC’s post game coverage] threw down to the rooms.
Amid the silence, screams and tears, there was the horror.
It was gut-wrenching.
And watching grown men cry – including injured captain Bob Murphy, who himself has been through so much – was truly devastating.
The tears were contagious.
Wallis was eventually moved towards the ambulance and taken away. His family beside him mortified.
Now, I love my football as much as anyone. Like equating footballers with diggers going to battle, it just doesn’t sit right that the reporting of Wallis’ injury has taken on something of a histrionic tone. It carried on into the lead up to tonight’s game, and it spread to a different outlet.
Anyway that’s my two cents. Injuries suck, but let’s have some levity.
The absence of Wallis and Redpath, as well as some additional niggles picked up by Dogs’ players on Saturday night, mean they travel 30 minutes down the road to Geelong missing a host of their first-choice players. Indeed, their back six, the rock of coach Luke Beveridge’s strangling defensive structures, is missing five of it’s starters: Robert Murphy, Dale Morris, Matthew Boyd, Matt Suckling and Marcus Adams (who emerged as critical at the start of this season).
Morris, Boyd and Suckling are new injuries, which have turned a game that looked well within the grasp of the Dogs to one where they may struggle to keep up with their opponent. Skilled Stadium’s narrow wings suit Beveridge’s structures better than their usual home at Etihad; the Dogs kept Geelong to 72 points in Round 16 last season, their second lowest tally at the ground behind North Melbourne (67) and Fremantle (60).
Interestingly, the Cats and Dogs have both played their opponents well at their respective home grounds: both Geelong and Footscray have allowed the opposition to score 70.6 points per game when playing at Kardinia Park and Etihad, respectively. That’s almost four goals beneath the league average score this year. Both sides like to press up, and have the narrower fields that make this tactic successful.
As something of a counter, the Dogs have gone small, with a forward line that looks quite similar to the style Hawthorn have been trotting out in 2016. Tom Boyd is the lone big man, to be flanked by a fleet of midsized and small forwards, in what could be seen as a direct counter to Geelong’s taller, slower defensive unit.
The Dogs like to throw their midfielders around too, so we could expect to see Marcus Bontempelli spend a bit of time inside 50.
For the Cats, Lachie Henderson’s second successive week on the sidelines with concussion is, in this game, probably more a help than hindrance. Adding Henderson to a backline already boasting Tom Lonergan, Harry Taylor and Jake Kolodjashnij would have been too big, and doubly so given the Cats remain intent on squeezing Rhys Stanley, Zac Smith and Mark Blicavs into the same team.
In their drive to find their most effective forward set up, the Cats have dropped Shane Kersten, despite Kersten putting in a decent year to date. It’s hard to argue with a 12-5 record, but as we get closer to September, the Cats will be wanting to have a system in place that can keep pace with Hawthorn, GWS, Adelaide, West Coast and arguably Sydney (who have a lower Offensive Efficiency Rating than the Cats, but who have played three games in conditions not amenable to scoring).
With the Dogs’ absentees, tonight might represent the best opportunity the Cats will have to try a few new things against an opponent that it will potentially face at the pointy end of the year.
One area where the Dogs might think they’re a chance of sticking with the Cats is in the midfield. The Western Bulldogs play through the middle like Collingwood, St Kilda and Carlton played against the Cats as their main mode of operation: swarming numbers in tight, with an emphasis on creating something of a scrap. Stopping Patrick Dangerfield and Joel Selwood is proving impossible, but the rest of Geelong’s midfield is vulnerable to this style. It is, at the very least, something to watch out for early.
Otherwise, this is looking like a sound victory to the Cats – a shame given it was by far match of the round this time a week ago. The key question will be whether the Dogs can break Geelong’s press and expose their lumbering forward line with their more nimble group. I don’t see it, so I’ll pick the Cats by five goals.
That’s my Friday night forecast, and my Friday night soapbox for good measure, what’s yours?
justinr
Guest
Cats by 29
Pope Paul VII
Guest
scroll
DingoGray
Roar Guru
Yeah can't argue anything here Ryan. However the week the Bulldogs of had, I really hope Geelong turn up thinking they only need to go through the motions (they do have a small tendency) and the Doggies have the Footy GODS smiling on them this week. I don't think too many people would begrudge them this week.
mattyb
Guest
One of the greatest JohnDee and who cares about Geelong, I'm referring to the events of this week and this year surrounding the doggies going into this extremely tough match. Show a bit of cheer and warmth and be more joyful. For me personally I think it would be one the greatest events on the history of this earth yet I'm well aware others wouldn't look upon it that way. Saying it would be one of the greatest victories in the history of AFL/VFL football though is entirely fair.
TomC
Roar Guru
Spot on with the puncturing of the footy media, Ryan. Some perspective is needed. And also your assessment of the contest is sadly true. The top handful of teams are so close this year that four or five players missing from one side tips the balance from an even contest to a foregone conclusion. It sucks for the Dogs. They've had a few more injuries at key points than the other teams around them and consequently have lost games they might have won otherwise against the Roos and Saints. Arguably the GWS game might also have been in play with a bit more luck. This might have been their year, but right now they seem to be slipping out of contention.
JohnDee
Guest
Greatest victories in the history of the game? Get your hand off it. This Geelong side has lost to Carlton, Collingwood and St.Kilda this year, neither are overly great teams this year. If the Cats come out and play the way they did against those sides, anything is possible.
JohnDee
Guest
Geelong lost to Melbourne last year at Skilled Stadium on Corey Enright's 300th game, anything is possible!
mattyb
Guest
The doggies are still a chance tonight. While they have been so spirited and brave right through the season with injury after injury after injury it has got to the point that they now have nothing to lose. If the doggies can miraculously get up tonight it will be one of the greatest victories in the history of the game. A victory tonight will help these young players in the future and give them enormous confidence,there are some terrific genuinely young players taking the field tonight and although nearly all of them have much more development to go some are already at a very competent level. Have to sadly agree Ryan also that the media got a tad carried away last week.
Jack
Guest
Love to see the Dogs win, but I cant see it
Pope Paul VII
Guest
At least your blokes are getting some sympathy. ( they are shockers, particularly poor Wallis ). North's horror run was assisted by in game injuries and then by more injuries, to go with the pile of long terms. Forget that. Every man and dog was into them saying "I told you they're pretenders". Yet none of these prophets of joyful doom will attribute the impact of mass injuries. WB's disaster was the third mid-match multi-injury debacle. Joining the Colliewobbles and North. Both of which are now recovering. The other mobs should grateful and maybe a little apprehensive because they are only a misstep or two away from disaster.
paulywalnuts
Guest
"Dogs…well they have more endurance" Generally better teamwork too, you'd have to say.
Pumping Dougie
Roar Guru
WOOF WOOF!!
Doc Disnick
Roar Guru
Some good old fashioned trash-talk — I love it! ....look everyone knows Cats are better than Dogs, no point debating this really. In the wild, Cats are generally faster, stronger and more agile. Dogs...well they have more endurance, that's about it. Kind of like tonight really! GO CATS!
Pumping Dougie
Roar Guru
True Rick. We were only missing 7 of our best 22 last time we played you, this time we're missing 10. But we still have The Bont and The Package, so look out!
Paul W
Guest
And that was at Etihad, Simonds Stadium on two beloved club stalwarts milestone games is a huge ask.
Pumping Dougie
Roar Guru
I hope so Perry, but missing half of our best 22 is a big ask. We had a much stronger side five weeks ago and Geelong dominated from the opening bounce. Still, that was our worst performance of the year and stranger things have happened.
Paul W
Guest
Six knee reco's in two years (counting Prudden & R Smith). Apart from long term injuries to JJ, Dahl, etc.
Brian
Guest
Libba, Clay Smith, Redplath, Wallis, Muprhy - that's an awful lot of serious injuries in under 2 years
Brian
Guest
Actually Ryan from memory your pre-season tip for Geelong was in the 4th-6th vicinity and it looks spot on right now.
Paul W
Guest
I think the reaction, or some say over reaction, to Mitch Wallis &; Jack Redpath's injuries have come about because injuries have been unrelenting this year and probably reached the tipping point on Saturday night. It's mainly our back six who have been cut down this year, but we have very few established KP players and to lose another one in Redpath just as we were trying to see if Boyd and Redpath in the same forward line would work for us is another big blow. Given this was Redpath's 3rd knee also added to the outpouring of emotion for him too. Boyd will be expected to ruck a fair bit so there'll be plenty of times when we have one or no talls up forward. This will mean the media will be all over Boyd if he doesn't have an acceptable game as a forward when he's already spent a big chunk of the game around the ground. Minson should have been selected. The Wallis injury is just horrific, it's not just a run of the mill broken leg and Dogs supporters understand the long road ahead for Mitch. It took Jake Stringer at least 3 years to reach his physical potential after a literally identical injury. This is the fear we all had for Mitch. Of course we know of Nathan Brown's (who was never the same after), Voss & Barlow breaks and it felt like a veil of hopelessness descended on the club. To add to all this many of us think Libba was not right to go last week and have the same fears about Stringer tonight. We need to get games into Dahl, but he'll also probably be underdone. Hopefully Bev can get the boys minds back on the job, but I think tonight is just a holding pattern game for us to then come back and have a good run at the rest of the season, but Cats by plenty tonight.