Swing bowler Jackson Bird should replace spinner Jon Holland for the third Test against Sri Lanka following the success of Australia’s pacemen in the first two matches.
The home batsmen more often than not have looked at ease against Australia’s spinners in this series and the Colombo pitch is not expected to offer tweakers more assistance than the surfaces at Galle and Kandy.
Most debates about selection have revolved around Australia’s top six, with Mitch Marsh, Usman Khawaja and Joe Burns all in the crosshairs. As I argued on Sunday, Australia would be wise to stick fast with their specialist batsmen, who served them so well over their eight Tests home and away last summer.
The only change necessary is to drop Holland for Bird. The left-arm spinner battled on debut at Galle, where the Sri Lankan batsmen showed him no respect. While he did bowl with some nice loop and drift at times, Holland looked rattled by the aggressive batting he encountered and as a result lost the accuracy that helped him earn his spot.
Rarely did he look threatening, even against the lower order. Holland also was unable to offer his captain Steve Smith even a modicum of control, delivering just one maiden as he went at a whopping 5.3 runs per over from his 25 overs.
The reality, as harsh as it sounds, is that Holland may never again be considered for Test selection – his cards could be marked after this performance. That might not be fair but cricket selectors can be spooked when a bowler wilts under pressure the way Holland did.
Look at Simon Kerrigan, who many pundits and fans in England consider the best red-ball spin prospect in the country. He was 24 years old and earmarked as England’s next long-term Test spinner when he made his debut in the 2013 Ashes.
England bowled 152 overs in that match. Kerrigan only delivered eight of them, banished from the attack after being clobbered by Shane Watson. The left-armer finished with 0-53, conceding eight boundaries, and has never been seen again in any format at international level.
Although he has continued to perform solidly in county cricket, and incumbent Test spinner Moeen Ali has averaged more than 50 with the ball in the past year, Kerrigan doesn’t seem to be in contention for Test selection. There’s a sense that the Australian selectors have been similarly spooked by the way Fawad Ahmed struggled in the tour games he played in England and the Caribbean last year.
In Australia’s opening match of the Ashes tour of England last year, Ahmed went at six runs per over across his 26 overs against Kent, a division two County team. A few months earlier in the Caribbean, Ahmed returned match figures of 2-144 against the weak batting line-up of the West Indies Cricket Board President’s XI.
Despite being clearly the second-best spinner in Sheffield Shield cricket, after Steve O’Keefe, over the past three years, Ahmed was overlooked when O’Keefe went down injured at Kandy. His unsightly failures on the Caribbean and England tours likely played a major part in his non-selection.
Holland suffered the ignominy of his flop coming on the bigger stage of a Test match, and one which involved a humiliating loss for his team. This will live long in the memory of the selectors and could, wrongly or rightly, count heavily against Holland in the future.
There is no doubt that he should not be picked to play at Colombo. If the Sri Lankans feasted on him at Galle, which long has been a prosperous hunting ground for spinners, he will be even more vulnerable on the traditionally batting-friendly wicket at the Sinhalese Sports Club.
This ground has been the scene of some incredibly high scoring, including the 2010 Test between Sri Lanka and India in which 1478 runs were scored for the loss of just 17 wickets.
More recently, the Tests at SSC have been lower-scoring and fast bowlers have played a major part. In the last Test at the ground, between India and Sri Lanka in 2015, 27 wickets were taken by the quicks, compared to just 12 by spinners.
At Colombo, Australia must play to their strengths and select a third frontline quick to support Mitchell Starc and Josh Hazlewood.
The Australian new-ball pair have been superb over the first two Tests, combining for 24 wickets at an average of 15, having had the hosts at least two wickets down within the first six overs of each of Sri Lanka’s four innings.
Even more impressive has been the reverse swing that they and all-rounder Mitch Marsh have been able to conjure, sometimes as early as 25 overs into the Sri Lankan innings. That trio have not only troubled the hosts far more consistently than Australia’s spinners, but also have been able to build pressure with tight spells.
This is Bird’s specialty. He plays on the batsmen’s patience with his unerring line and length. While Australia’s batting manifestly is the problem, it won’t hurt to pick the best possible attack at Colombo.
Bird has earned the right to play ahead of the other reserve paceman, Nathan Coulter-Nile. The West Australian is a more dynamic bowler, yet is seemingly better suited to swifter, bouncier wickets like the ones on which he has learnt his trade at the WACA.
We may well have seen the last of Holland in the baggy green. But Colombo could offer Bird the opportunity to prove he can flourish in Asian conditions, in the process booking himself a spot on the Test tour of India in six months’ time.
Craig Swanson
Guest
I have been very impressed with our reverse swing. Josh hazlewood in particular. The big Tamworth quick is Smith's go to man whenever reverse swing is due. Starc has been the star wicket taker on this tour with his extreme pace on dead decks plus his clever variations. No two of his balls are the same which keeps the batsmen on their toes and forces errors. Hazlewood, though has been the rock of the attack. He rarely goes for more than 3 runs an over. So even if he is in a wicket taking glut at the moment, his miserly economy builds pressure on which others can thrive.
Craig Swanson
Guest
Totally agree about Lynn and spin. Dare I say it he is like a lot of players raised on the bouncy Gabba deck. Fellow Queenslander Joe Burns seems to have found the answer and that is to attack the spinner. Has not worked too well for him lately though.
Craig Swanson
Guest
Handscomb does not protect his off stump well enough and as you say does play back a bit too often. I did see improvements in his technique in Brisbane and Townsville in the A series.. So he has been working on his game. Should definitely be condidered for India as he is one fine player of spin. After the SL debacle we need as many of that species as we can find.
Craig Swanson
Guest
I will go along with that. CA is too scared to fly over a leggie so Smith should bowl himself. Infact he should have bowled far more in the previous two tests as when he landed them he looked dangerous wih his ability to turn a ball almost square.
Craig Swanson
Guest
Do we need four quicks on these spin friendly decks? I would be bringing in a wrist spinner who at least will prove to be a test for the Lankan batsmen as they have had an easy road so far agaist our moderate finger spinners. CA will not do this as it is admitting that they got the selections wrong in the first place.
Chris Kettlewell
Roar Guru
I'm not a big Shaun Marsh fan. He's been selected for any reason other than performance pretty much every time in the past. Only this most recent return to the test team has been on the basis of good first class results, and then he did reasonably well in the couple of tests he had. Of course, those were against the West Indies when everyone was doing well. He's certainly not a long term option, but I'm not sure Burns really is either.
Rocko
Roar Guru
Misguided column - the batting has been deplorable this series and Mitch Marsh cannot be carried.
Jacko
Guest
Maybe Smith should bowl himself a bit more than he does on this type of wicket
Broken-hearted Toy
Guest
The next wicket is likely to be the flattest of the series so our batsmen might perk up a bit. Smith needs to bowl his seamers more thoughtfully.
Broken-hearted Toy
Guest
But the Sri Lankans like playing spin and pace is our strength. This tour has only exposed that again.
Timmuh
Roar Guru
I see some people are bringing in Bird and S marsh and keeping Mitch Marsh. There would already be three seamers, which is enough and Sri Lanka have shown they are more vulnerable to the quicks than spin. Dropping Holland after one game is a bit rough, but the evidence suggests two spinners is playing to conditions, but also in favour of Lankan batsmen who handle spin in those conditions. If Bird comes in, is Marsh's bowling required? He's not a front line bowler, would using Smith and Voges sharing a part-time second spinner make sense instead? I guess there is nothing suggesting any of Burns, Khawaja, Voges will actually bat any better than M Marsh so I can see why he could be retained from that point of view (in addition to the selectors loving an all-rounder, regardless of ability and the weakness of the batting making depth more of an issue than it should be). Warner Khawaja S Marsh Smith Burns Voges Nevill Starc Lyon Hazelwood Bird It does mean a long tail, but the tail will be eleven players regardless of selection. Or bring in Henriques, whose record on the sub-continent is not great but better than some of the batsmen; and is probably a better batsmen for the conditions than either Marsh (and maybe Burns). Not having played FC cricket since November probably takes that out of the equation - but why tour him then?
BurgyGreen
Guest
Joe Burns has a big future. I don't think wr should drop a performing young opener because of one bad series in which everyone failed. Shaun Marsh on the other hand is well into his 30s with an inferior First Class and Test record. The selectors need to look beyond this single, dead-rubber match. We need guys like Burns to get as much subcontinent experience as possible.
armchair expert
Guest
GD66, that fast tracking was more about political grandstanding than cricket.
Tatah
Guest
Agreed! Exactly my team. If we absolutely had to win to level the series I might think of Bird over Marsh, but our batting is the problem and they need six batsman plus Neville and Marsh. If the wicket is as friendly as it seems to batsmen, and we still don't score runs, then I'd cancel the tour to India and see if we could come back into the fold in 2018 when we're ready.
Tanmoy Kar
Guest
Australian batting line-up looks brittle. They got hi-fi average playing in dead Australian pitches facing only pace bowling. Now they are in all sorts of trouble facing spinners in tricky pitches.
BurgyGreen
Guest
Maybe, but it's a mistake in my book. There are several batters under 30 years of age who have better records and had better 2015/16 Shield seasons. All of them deserve a go ahead of Head.
Ajay
Guest
Or maybe Head Is ahead of Handscomb. He has been called into australian squad. Now it is sure Head Is the top contender to replace Voges and Bailey.
BurgyGreen
Guest
I reckon that even with another batsman we wouldn't get close to posting competitive totals. You need someone in the top 5 to anchor the innings and it hasn't happened at any point in this series.
Liam
Guest
I have a suggestion. How about if we're dropping the debutante, perhaps we should, you know, instead of just swapping out a bowler for a bowler we move Voges, M.Marsh one down the order, and select another batsman to bat at 5? The overs that the other bowler would have bowled can be shared between Voges, Warner and Smith, all of whom aren't terrible on a turning deck. If the batting is so poor, but the bowling is going pretty well - and I think it's safe to assume that it is - then add a batsman to round out the order. You've still got the allrounder in should you need him in M.Marsh, and honestly Hazlewood is a better bowler than he's shown this series, as is Lyon. Funny, how in a series where our bowling is actually going pretty well two of the three set bowling slots aren't really smashing it down. Stoinis. Bancroft. Marsh. Ross. Handscomb. Hell, even give Cosgrove a test or two, if he can play against the turners. Anything for some runs.
Smell the fear
Guest
How does a bowler with a FC average of 37 get a baggy green ?