The Rugby Championship is upon us, and with it comes the return of the big question each week. Just a bunch of guys from different dots on the southern hemisphere riffing about the game we love one sizeable question at a time.
But the 2016 edition of the Big Question is a little different in that I’ve finally completed the SANZAAR set. I’ve had a Kiwi and a South African for some time, and both Digger and Harry are back again, but we’re very pleased to welcome an Argentinean voice to the discussion.
You all know him as ‘Nobrain’, though his contributions in these parts – most recently his wonderful interview with young Pumas hooker Julian Montoya – show that his moniker is a long way from the truth. Regardless, we’re thrilled that ‘Nobes’ agreed to join the panel, and we look forward to his perspective and insight throughout The Rugby Championship.
The Crowd, fresh from a Super Rugby tipping triumph, will once again have their say and see if their recent tipping success translates to the international arena.
The Big Question for week one: If the 2016 Rugby Championship is New Zealand’s to lose, who of Argentina, Australia, and South Africa is best placed to challenge? (from Brett)
Nobrain: “Wow! What did I get myself into?
“Thank you all very much. It is an honour to share this panel with such distinguished rugby connoisseurs.
“To answer the big question, it is worth remembering that since the new TRC format was created in 2012 – thus allowing Argentina to become part of it – the All Blacks have lost only on two occasions and tied just one.
“Before I continue let me say that each time the All Blacks lose is an upset. The only tie occurred in the first game against the Wallabies in 2014. The defeats happened in the last match of the same edition against the Springboks, and also the last game against Australia in the short version of 2015.
“Therefore, if we follow the preceding pattern I have to say that the ‘Boks are most likely to take a victory. However, the lately and mysteriously quiet Wallabies can come up with a nice surprise this weekend. The men in black have the tendency to start slowly and increase their intensity and velocity towards the middle of the tournament (where they have three games at home).
“They will gradually but slightly slow down when they get to South Africa after their journey through Argentina.”
Harry Jones: “¡Bienvenido hermano Nobes!
“The kinder, gentler, less-fearsome ‘Boklings have the best chance of challenging the still-mighty and never complacent All Blacks. Not because my new, soft Springbok heroes are better than the old, hard guys. And not because ‘Toetie’ Coetzee has transformed anything or anyone, except to play nicer.
“The only reason is the Wallabies begin with their Bledisloe bully buddies, whilst the Boks host the Jaguares-turned-Pumas on the banks of the Crocodile River, not far from malarial wetlands in Mozambique, and have time to gel before facing New Zealand. Nelspruit is just the place to try to sneak up on the competition.”
Diggercane: “Welcome Juan my brother, Haere Mai, looking forward to your insight this fine International season.
“In short, I really have no idea about the big question. Potentially I am still suffering from the effects of celebrating the ‘Canes ‘by plenty’ maiden triumph but it’s a good question and I am not sure how to weigh it all up.
“Is it a good thing the Wallabies and Pumas have had plenty of time to prepare? Possibly, but then I would have thought having the majority of the squad playing knock out rugby would be better. Will the Lions’ performance add some motivation and confidence to the Springbok camp? I guess that comes down to what Coetzee looks to implement and how quickly it becomes cohesive.
“For me, I would have to say the Wallabies. With a number of experienced players bolstering the squad, what I can only imagine will be a highly motivated squad considering the June results and playing in Sydney, it would be my assumption the Wallabies are the best placed to challenge, especially considering they get first crack at it before the All Blacks have had a chance to go around for 80 minutes. A win in Sydney would make for an interesting second leg in Wellington considering the Cake Tin does not possess the same ‘fortress’ status as Eden Park, though only by about 14 years.”
Brett McKay: “Yes, welcome indeed, Nobes, and you’re already off to a wonderful start.
“I too was thinking it might be South Africa who are best placed to mount the challenge, but looking at the draw, it might actually be the Wallabies after all.
“The ‘Boks aren’t playing New Zealand at Ellis Park, surprisingly, and are only playing the one game at altitude, against the Wallabies in Pretoria. Argentina host South Africa in Salta and the All Blacks at the River Plate in Buenos Aires, before their historic ‘home’ match at Twickenham against the Wallabies.
“So if the Wallabies can get the win this weekend in Sydney, they would fancy their chances for the remaining games. New Zealand in Wellington next weekend would perhaps be the biggest hurdle, though happily, the third Bledisloe Test, at Eden Park, isn’t part of The Rugby Championship. Stranger things have happened!
Nobrain: “Michael Cheika is setting everything up for an ambush. His players are rested physically and mentally. Australia will win by a minimum difference.
“Allister Coetzee will have his hands full with a well rested and highly focused Argentine team. If he expects the Pumas to play like the Jaguares he might find himself swimming in turbulent waters. But if I go for the ‘Boks I do not think I will get more interviews. I have to go with the Pumas. They will win by a very small margin against a rested but rusty team in a sloppy game.”
Harry: “Michael Cheika is all at sea. His diagnoses of the reasons for the horrors of the English Invasion on Aussie soil seem facile (more aggro), and his base game still looks murky and mismatched to personnel. New Zealand by plenty.
“The ‘Boks will cruise, but we are not a great team, yet. Not even good, really. South Africa by some.”
Diggercane: “All Blacks just because, while I will back the Springboks at home”
Brett: Australia to win in Sydney, mostly out of desperation – both the Wallabies’ and my own. We both have to get off to a strong start in our respective competitions with ‘statement’ results in the first game.
And then South Africa in Nelspruit, of which the Mbombela Stadium looks an absolute picture! What a great looking stadium, a slightly smaller scale Suncorp in Brisbane is how I’d describe it.
The Summary
The Verdict
Pretty emphatic for The Crowd in the end, with New Zealand and South Africa taking the votes pretty comfortably.
Brett McKay
Expert
The Crowd has had their say, thanks for all the responses once again..
Nobrain
Guest
Tnxs Matias, I will attempt to represent us well.
taylorman
Guest
Agree there Brett, Bench now looks decided 'specialist', particularly in the backs. Savea, Perenara, and Cruden all specialists so it seems not a lot of thinking going on there. Either that or they expect Crotty and Feks to both get through 80 ok...which they probably will, both young and fit. But it does look front heavy- counting on the game to be decided more in the first 60 rather than the last 20, mainly due to Barretts selection. Hes still a concern to me- I dont think hes even had an average overseas start and good performance let alone a good one, and these old hands will know how to get to him- Hooper might be assigned that role specifically. So not totally sold on Barrett yet. This aint the Canes, or a NZ paddock, both 'to date' requirements for a good Barrett start.
Carlos the Argie
Roar Guru
Reminds me of the time I asked Cruden in Chicago if BBBB was his room mate that didn't alert him to leave for the airport. Crude was not amused. Gave me the evil eye.
Carlos the Argie
Roar Guru
Well, your daughter photobombs with BBBBB. It is worse when your then girlfriend and now wife gets all giggly chatting with Dan Carter and Richie. And then she tells me she LOVES rugby! LOVES, loves, loves. Whatever. Anyway, to me the interesting issue with this RC is player development. The first year after RWC11, the ABs brought a few new players to their group. Coles, Barrett, Rettalick and a few others who became incredible stars. Now, they have to reconstruct their team in quite a few positions. They are mixing old blood with new blood. Some will work and some won't. However, the Wobblies appear to have a different strategy. They are bringing their dinosaurs. It may work this weekend, but if you look a little longer, this is not the way to go.
Carlos the Argie
Roar Guru
I am not being pedantic. I did not read the title as a tongue in cheek statement. I am a stickler for "correctness" when using algebra or statistics. Which doesn't mean I am all for political correctness, perish the thought! Otherwise, how would I tease the English? I do find that the understanding of algebra and statistics is extremely poor. The search for patterns where none exists is a yuuuge problem for humanity. Even above, pundits were searching for patterns where the sample sizes were minuscule. Just give your opinions, don't justify them with presumed patterns. It is more honest.
Zack
Roar Rookie
A more interesting survey should be about which of the 4 teams will finish 4th. I'm picking the Pumas...
Marius Ciliers
Roar Guru
Glad to see some Argie beef on the panel NoBrain. As always good Question and predictions guys. Match predictions: 1. New Zeeland by 7-11: And besides having insane quality players on-field,they have great composure and even better big game mentality than the ausies. The ausies are going to come out flying. With bruising effect,but I suspect the team hansen has fielded will pull a Canes Lions rush defense on the Ausies,with emphasis on disrupting the auz breakdown with lightning speed and precision, dismembering the gaps and hitting that gainline with force. Getting into strike range,building the scoreboard along with confidence. Tactical presicion I believe is what will win the Kiwi's this match. From the general game plan and strategy down to the different areas like breakdown,set piece,line outs and kicking. With everyone,playing machine like, just taking that Auz onslaught,not yielding ground. Like the movie 300 where they brace for the initial attack,hold it,ajust and strike back. Brace,hold it,ajust and strike back. This I believe will have a taxing toxic effect not only on the physicality of the australian players,but mentaly as well. They will clam up heads down,chuck the game plan,revert to default and try and club their way with in-effective brutality,speed and clueless kicking This will play right into new zeelands hand and the game will be wrapped up with the 23 men and 10 mins to spare. Those last 10 minutes will be a brutal auz onslaught. But it will be a bridge too far. 2: South Africa by 13. I love the Argies. Very very much. And was very saddened at the fate of the Jaguares this year. But the Jaguares aren't the Pumas. Different coaching staff and plenty of time after the June break to sort out the niggles,discipline and fitness. I have faith in them. But I do feel however that a ray of wishfull Light has fallen on the Bok camp and AC. The inclussion of both Goosen and Habanna,starting next to Combrink,mapoe,de allende,janties and faf de klerk will be too powerfull a combination for the Pumas. Being a battle for the breakdown as the Pumas are front row force to be reckoned with,the likes of Louw,etzebeth,whiteley,lood and redelinghuys with strauss in for good measure and hopefully tendai joining the fray,may provide just enough time for quick ball for faf. And then if jantjies can keep his cool...it will be all she wrote. But the Pumas aren't dumm. Not by a long shot. Should they tacticaly kick,dominate the breakdowns scrums and rucks. Get in the Boks faces. It will become an adhoc Bok team neither here nor there with an Argie team licking its chops. As for which team has the best chance at flogging the Kiwi's.. Australia. By far.
Harry Jones
Expert
Bok team announced... Goosen at 15 as Willie gets the chop. J Kriel as the outside back replacement. The pack has Redelinghuys and Oupa and Lood in it; good bad and ugly. PSDT as reserve--might see Eben-Lood-PSDT on at the same time! Two Kriels on bench; fast Boks in last 20:00. Louw keeps the OS spot deservedly; but I wish Notshe had got a gallop against the Pumas pre-AB/WB. There's plenty of boot in this squad, and mongrel, and speed. Balance and combos are key... Hoping de Allende rediscovers his pass.
Matute
Roar Rookie
Guau! Excelent news! An Argentine in the panel. Congrats NoBrain for the convocation. For the questions. 1. Who can win AB. No one. Not this year :-( 2. The results of the week-end. AB of course and Pumas, i guess. Last year we did it, why not this year?
Harry Jones
Expert
Who broke his nose? McCalman?
Harry Jones
Expert
Digger There are depths To plummet to And then there's Photo bombing Your daughter With BBBBBBBB HAHAHAHA
Harry Jones
Expert
Goat is the big topic on the Roar this week.
Digby
Roar Guru
I will try Akari but I fear I will be dining out on it for a while yet ? The avatar is my daughter getting a picture with BBBBB, I am in there way at the back photo bombing which I was not popular in doing ?
Harry Jones
Expert
Thanks for putting this together, BMcK. I was almost succincter than thee.
ClarkeG
Guest
Kaino I imagine is the first call for lock cover and Smith in my opinion is the realistic centre cover although I would not be surprised if the ABs see Naholo as cover here, an idea that I'm not that comfortable with.
Sqn Cdr The Lord Flashheart
Guest
Fekitoa can cover 12 if Crotty goes down. Heck Ben Smtih could cover from 10 up IMO!
Akari
Roar Rookie
The WBs were easily my first choice as the Boks are in rebuilding mode with a new coach and players and with the Pumas having to re-start with an away game against the Boks. They then have to fly all the way back home with their opposition and then play against the Boks again. It will be really tough for them. This may give the Boks an early start with 2 wins on the trot. My thoughts on the WBs have wobbled a bit given the selections of players out of position and the bench. I am just not sure whether Cheika will make the same selections for next weekend's test at the Cake Tin if, as I suspect, the WBs lose by whatever margin on the weekend.
Who can challenge the All Blacks? Well going by the series in June nobody.
Brett McKay
Expert
Being reported from the Wallabies presser that a broken nose is what's kept McMahon out of the 23...