The Roar’s AFL expert tips and predictions: Round 23

Well, the final round of the home-and-away season has arrived! And it’s a huge week for those of us who have fallen way too far behind in our tipping comps.

As for mine, I’m five tips behind the pack here and just about conceding the win to whichever of Michael, BJ Conkey or The Crowd pulls it off in the remaining weeks.

Still! That doesn’t mean we can’t have some fun.

» The Roar’s comprehensive guide to the 2016 AFL Finals

We’ve got two very promising matches this week in Adelaide vs West Coast and North Melbourne vs GWS. I wrote a bit yesterday about how crucial these games are for determining the finals series ahead.

The notable thing about the Crows vs Eagles match is that both sides are now going to be missing a star player – Rory Sloane accepted a one week ban on the Crows side, while Nic Naitanui is out due to an ACL for the Eagles.

My suspicion is that Naitanui will prove the bigger blow and the Crows will get the win, especially given that it’s at their home turf of Adelaide Oval.

As for North Melbourne vs GWS, well that’s a game that has a lot of emotion after North yesterday announced the forced retirements of four veteran players including games record holder Brent Harvey.

This may be the quartet’s last chance to play in Victoria – though, it also may not – but regardless of how the fixture pans out, there’s no doubt that there’ll be a significant response of some kind from North Melbourne to these developments.

Will it be a positive one? I sure hope so, because I’m tipping them.

We’ve got four matches involving top-eight sides versus non-top-eight sides this week – they are Geelong vs Melbourne, Sydney vs Richmond, Hawthorn vs Collingwood and Fremantle vs the Western Bulldogs.

There feels like a little upset potential in any given game there, but I suspect that having so much more on the line will give the top eight sides the impetus to get the wins that they should.

That leaves us with three dead rubbers between teams who are going nowhere – Essendon vs Carlton, Gold Coast vs Port Adelaide, and St Kilda vs Brisbane.

These teams are all out of the running now this year and their final matches of the season will be all about looking to finish the year on a good note.

Carlton, Port Adelaide and St Kilda look the best placed of the let to achieve that, but these matches could easily go either way depending on who lifts for the occasion and who puts the cue in the rack.

One last Lock of the Week? It’s actually rather difficult to say, but I’ll go with St Kilda over Brisbane.

Michael di Fabrizio
West Coast are on a winning run but there’s a fair bit at stake so I don’t see Adelaide letting the Eagles get this one.

Things are ticking over quite nicely for the Crows, though the loss of Rory Sloane does leave a gap to be filled in the midfield.

That said, if we’re on the topic of gaps needing to be filled, the name Nic Naitanui instantly enters the conversation. You’d think Sam Jacobs would be primed for a big evening.

Throw in the venue – and cast your mind back to a time not that long ago when venue was everything for West Coast – and my tip has to be with the Crows.

Geelong’s hosting of Melbourne has a bit of a danger game vibe about it. The Cats have been prone to dropping games like this.

After the letdown of last week, it will be interesting to see how Melbourne go without the pressure of needing to win. Throw in the Paul Roos farewell factor and I’m on board with an upset. Let’s go the Dees.

And while we’re at it, let’s pick North Melbourne to upset GWS.

The Kangas may well be galvanised by this week’s news and perhaps Saturday presents the opportunity to secure what could be one last win for some club heroes.

BJ Conkey
Losing Nic Naitanui for a whole year is a big setback for the Eagles and it’s given their premiership hopes a hit.

Adelaide at home are always tough to beat, even with Rory Sloane’s suspension. I think they’ll just fall short of the minor premiership though to Sydney. The live ladder will be fun to follow during the Swans game if Adelaide win well.

The bombshell news about the departure of four club legends will either inspire or crush North Melbourne in their game.

My hunch is Brent Harvey and company will be extra motivated knowing this game could be the Victorian farewell that came sooner than any expected.

GWS may have bounced back with a convincing win over Fremantle but if they are put under pressure it will be interesting to see how they react, especially if the game is tight at the end. Kangaroos in an emotional win for mine.

I can see Hawthorn coming out all guns blazing in this game, knowing they’ll have a week off to recover and get ready for the time in the season they’ve owned in the past three years.

With GWS hot on their heels, the Hawks will still need a solid performance to secure a top four spot.

Collingwood have been in much better form the last two weeks but they’ve struggled at the MCG this year.