If you are trying to pick a premier a week out from the end of the season, I wish the absolute best of luck to you, because it is just about the impossible task.
A lot of the teams who are rated as contenders have been up and down like a yo-yo with their form and it makes you wonder who really should be the favourites?
The Melbourne Storm are the team most likely to turn it around, but they have gone down to Canberra and Brisbane while grabbing a win that was far from confidence-installing over the Sea Eagles in the last three weeks.
The Broncos and Cowboys are up and down – have been since Origin although the Broncos might be starting to look good, and the Cowboys did just win at Belmore.
The Raiders are going to be without key players by the looks of things and the Bulldogs – well what exactly are you supposed to expect from them?
It’s been 49 years for the Sharks so who knows how they are going to perform come September, particularly given their recent form.
I am genuinely confused as to who will win this premiership. What a couple of weeks it is going to be through September.
Are the Broncos back?
The Broncos travelled to Melbourne on Friday Night and it was seen as their big test after a couple of wins against lower-ranked teams following up from a bad losing streak.
No matter what you might think about the way the match panned out, or the way it was officiated the Broncos got the job done with physicality from the forwards and class through their backs.
Corey Parker and Sam Thaiday were great, as was Josh McGuire in leading the Broncos on their merry way rolling the Storm pack for the most part through the middle.
Ben Hunt and Anthony Milford, who are the keys to this Brisbane outfit, played brilliantly controlling things with their kicking game and turning on the creativity and flamboyancy when required – if they play like that to the end of the season the Broncos will be hard to beat.
The problem for them though, is that they still didn’t look to be at their best and will need to find some consistency in a hurry.
Still, a confidence-restoring win against a top two team won’t go astray for Brisbane.
Is there a problem in Melbourne?
The question that must also be asked from Friday Night’s game is ‘was it the Broncos or the Storm?’ The Storm are undoubtedly one of the best teams in the competition in the fact that they can dominate the middle as they please and then score points through Cameron Smith and Cooper Cronk, with youngster Cameron Munster chiming in at fullback.
The problem for the Storm though, is that hasn’t been happening. If they get outmatched physically, as they have done a couple of times recently, then they find it very hard to be the better team.
They have a real issue playing from behind, and that is down to Cooper Cronk who never really wants to divert away from structure and just play the percentages – when he was forced out of that comfort zone on Friday against a strong Brisbane pack who played with a huge amount of energy for 80 minutes, he looked way out of his comfort zone.
The bottom line is, if the Storm are going to match teams physically as they always have done yet can’t control the ruck, they need to play with a similar amount of energy to other teams and try match them for pace.
They won’t like it, but teams are slowly starting to work them out at the right time of season.
Canberra’s defence might be an issue
The Raiders are in some serious trouble on a couple of fronts. Despite how well the team has been playing, their defence looked very shaky on the weekend and it’s not the first time this season that has happened.
Up until now, they have been able to rely on points and a very strong attacking performance to carry them over the line against most sides.
When they took on Melbourne three weeks ago, it looked as if they had turned things around with their defence in what was a very strong effort, but they then proceeded to go out and concede 30 points to the Sea Eagles.
With both Blake Austin and Aiden Sezer struggling on the injury front, points won’t be as easy to come by which means their pack needs to stand up, play with energy and shut other teams creativity down if they want to go far in the finals.
But… Ricky Stuart must be coach of the year
There might still be a round of the 2016 season to go, but this is the first award I am ready to call. Ricky Stuart has to be coach of the season come the Dally M awards night.
He has done something very special to take Canberra from a team who were expected to maybe compete for the top eight and get bowled out of the finals very quickly to a team that is in contention for the top two and has to be genuinely considered a team that could take out the premiership.
I’m not sure how he has done it, but full credit to Ricky who has received his fair share of criticism over the years – most of it warranted.
I was wrong, the top eight isn’t quite locked in
Ok, so last weekend I sort of proclaimed the top eight was locked in even if the order isn’t. Well that prediction has gone south with the Gold Coast Titans losing to the Penrith Panthers and the Wests Tigers thumping the New Zealand Warriors.
The problem for the Titans who are on 27 competition points is that they have to travel to North Queensland and take on the Cowboys next week.
Lose and it all comes down to whether the Tigers can beat the Raiders next week at home. Not a proposition the Titans want to put themselves into.
Add to the fact that the Cowboys are still playing for a top four berth and you have a situation with the Tigers are almost favourites to slot themselves into eighth.
Whether it is the Titans or Tigers, it would be expected they will play the Cowboys, Broncos or Bulldogs in the first week of the finals away from home and what a mighty challenge that would be.
Andrew McFadden can’t be coach of the Warriors in 2017
The New Zealand Warriors have gone out of the 2016 season without putting up a fight or raising a shout – more of a whimper really.
They have had so much to play for in the last three weeks, but have simply failed to rise to the occasion – and it’s not a matter of luck or something outside their control.
It’s all about the effort the Warriors are putting on, and simply put it hasn’t been anywhere near good enough to contest the matches they have had, which is particularly poor considering the back-loaded home schedule they had.
In fact, they have leaked 111 points in the last three weeks which resembles a side sitting on the bottom of the ladder, not a team battling to make the top eight.
Not good enough, and if McFadden can’t get them up for games of this nature then he has to go. He has made baffling selections throughout the season, and simply isn’t the man for the job in Auckland.
That is The Roar‘s NRL Talking points from the weekend that was. Thoughts Roarers? What did I miss?
Follow Scott on Twitter @sk_pryde
bexdog
Guest
In other words, don't give up on the dogs just yet.
Albo
Guest
Spot on jamesb ! You would have to give the Panthers some hope of a first final win ( 6th v 7th elimination) probably against the Dogs whose form has been dodgy of late. Then into the second week possibly against the loser of Raiders v Sharks , and again you couldn't completely dismiss them, as the Panthers led both of them away from home till late in these games earlier this year, and the Panthers have progressed a lot since those times of when Soward was running their show ! They have nothing to lose, as no-one expects to do it this year. So they won't be overawed. Their one bogey team is the Storm, who they can never beat in any era. Avoiding them may be the key to the Panthers chances into September.
Harry
Guest
Well said, Dave. I remember also reading a story here or somewhere else a few weeks ago which criticised the Raiders front rowers for not making enough metres - which made no mention of the fact that this was probably because the job of making metres up the middle of the field is shared across the board in this Raiders team, from front rowers all the way through to fullback. Despite plenty of evidence to the contrary from 25 rounds of football so far this season people are still judging the Raiders by reference to the painfully predictable style of rugby league played by most (but not all) teams in the NRL - hit it up the middle with the forwards for 5 tackles, pass it to a halfback or five-eighth to kick a bomb for the outside backs on the last. The Raiders don't play in a conventional way, and thank god for that.
JVGO
Guest
I can't see why they won't. Didn't they beat the Cowboys at Leichhardt and the Raiders look to be without both their halves? Tigers are a definite chance.
steveng
Roar Rookie
Its a Sharks v Raiders GF with the Raiders as the premiers and Stuart coach of the year.
The Barry
Roar Guru
* should be Cronulla, Cowboys and Storm in line 3-4...bring back the edit option!
The Barry
Roar Guru
The "is there a problem in Melbourne?" comment is pretty funny. For the first two months most punters wanted to call the competition off and play the GF between the Broncos and Cowboys. Then the wheels fell off the Broncos and it was only Cronulla, the Cowboys and Sharks that could win the comp. Then the Cowboys wheels fell off and it was between the Sharks and Melbourne. After their winning run the wheels fell off the Sharks and it seemed the Storm were the only team without wheels...but now after two losses in three weeks, we should be asking questions about the Storm and whether they've been worked out? I don't think the last six months will count for much in the premiership race this year - it rarely does. But this year more than most I think it will be about the team that gets it together for four weeks. But it is funny how quickly teams chances are written off - and come back into contention again...
Long Black
Roar Rookie
I too was at the game and the offside call is way off the mark. Both teams were very fast in advancing from the roll ball, no one team was more offisde than the other. The difference was the Broncos were winning most of the on-the-ground contests.
Fish
Guest
On coach of the year. What are the qualifications? and why is it determined so early? I ask this for a few reasons. Firstly there is no denying Stuart has finally solved the frozen Capitals cryptic puzzle, and may well deliver on so much promise, but does it compare to The incredible effort of Brad Arthur? or Neil Henry? I would even like to throw in Jason Taylor, why? Because he has had to overcome a massive white ant to his coaching and is now delivering what he always new his side could deliver. This would all be debatable if the season ended at the end of the regular season, but what if it ended after the grand final? What if North Queensland achieved something that many think is impossible in the modern game? What if they did indeed delivered back to back premierships? Would this count Paul Green into the mix? I think it should. Not since the beginning of the nineties when Brisbane had a near full strength Origin side has it been done. Things have changed a hell of a lot since then, as far as player retention and the sheer competitiveness of the league is concerned. Not even the dubious Storm reign could deliver such an accolade. So why do we have to announce coach of the year before the final curtain, because surely as far as coaches are concerned a premiership is the only thing they can truly be judged on. Why else are they there if not to deliver a premiership? This is the true yardstick for coaches but we never include this in the criteria.
Dave
Guest
"With both Blake Austin and Aiden Sezer struggling on the injury front, points won’t be as easy to come by" Were you watching on the weekend when they ran in 8 tries without Austin? Anybody who has been paying any attention to the Raiders this year would note that their points have not been coming through the halves. It's a matter of getting the ball into the hands of the outside men in space, which Sam Williams and Elliot Whitehead did rather adeptly on Saturday. I'd wager that Sezer and Austin have the fewest try assists between them of any halves pairing with the exception of the Knights. And yet, the Raiders are the best attacking side in the competition by a distance. I think defence is the bigger issue. While obviously all you need to do is score more points than the opposition, should the attack faulter, I don't trust them to keep the other team out for extended periods.
Alex Green
Roar Guru
If the Sharks beat the Storm and take the minor premiership then surely Flanno deserves coach of the year over Stuart. Flanno probably should've got it last year over Bennett for taking a team from the spoon to narrowly missing top 4.
Lovey
Guest
Though it is the linesmen who are responsible for off-side, and they should be able to keep up with the pace. They should have better view to judge than most of the crowd, the TV commentators, even the bunker. Listening to "don't start me" Gould always going crook about individual decisions is not fun. It seems to be his default position. A classic was a recent claimed try, and he and Johns immediately said no way, the player got nowhere near the ball. The ref ruled that way but sent it upstairs. Then they saw the initial replay and they changed their tune completely. You know, wow how did he get to that stuff. The bunker finally (not fast enough for them) correctly detected a knock-on, and now it was "the game is not played in slow-motion". 180 degrees.
The Barry
Roar Guru
Whether or not Storm players were gambling on the outcome is more of a concern...
Crosscoder
Roar Guru
I would hope we have a grand final with plenty of flair in attack,plenty of 2nd phase play.Take you pick from the following :-Cowboys,Raiders,Sharks,Broncos ,Penrith and to a lesser extent the Storm. Broncos have been there and won,ditto Cowboys,ditto Storm.Give it to the "young guns" Sharks,Raiders and Penrith .There will be more running on display ,than by a herd of frightened wildebeest.
jamesb
Guest
Penrith are a good chance of progressing to a prelim final. Potentially they play the Bulldogs in week 1. And then potentially play either Canberra or Cronulla in week 2. Bulldogs have flaws in the 6,7 and 9. Canberra missing Austin and suspect defence, while the Sharks will have a huge weight of pressure to carry. Sure, Penrith themselves ain't perfect either, but the semi final draw for the Panthers is doable.
Agent11
Guest
There's 5 team all with a strong chance of winning the premiership - Storm, Cowboys, Sharks, Raiders, Broncos. Panthers are the only team with a shot but I don't think they are quite ready yet, they still have too many silly errors in them.
Sleiman Azizi
Roar Guru
I'm wondering if it won't be a Sharks vs Cowboys Grand Final.
Psychodelia
Guest
Greedy, Jim Jam, Cowboys got it last year, Broncies turn this time. 10 years TOO long. Go the mighty Broncos!
Benedict Arnold
Roar Rookie
It's ridiculous to assume that the commentators were betting on matches just because you disagree with what they were saying. I was at the game friday and, believe me, the pace was so fast ashley klein was out of his depth. He made several calls and blew several penalties for both sides that were never actually there. The broncos were off side for most of the game but good on them for exploiting the referee. It was probably the wake up call the storm needed and the much needed confidence boost for the broncos to get a litmus test for where their form is at in comparison to the other top teams.
Muzz
Guest
Storm v Sharks GF Sharks Premiers.