Tying a bow on the AFL's also-rans for 2016

The AFL season is over, long live the AFL season. Finals are on the mind for eight teams, but what about for the rest of the competition?

There’s plenty on the minds of the losers, and not all of it is bad.

It turns out that we knew who was playing in September after Round 6. Remember when Cam Rose wrote that article spruking that the best teams were already in the top eight? And we all looked at him like he was crazy? The man knows his football.

The barbed wire fence between the best and the rest was built as early as it has ever been in the modern era. The earliest that all eight finalists were locked in prior to this year was 2010, and that was in Round 11. We knew September combatants after just 27 per cent of the season.

There were some scares along the way, mostly centring on the eighth spot that North Melbourne mortgaged in 2015. At first it was Port Adelaide, who were like moths to a flame. Then it was the Saints, who came oh-so close. And finally it was the Demons of Melbourne – evidently Paul Roos hasn’t been able to exorcise the lot of them in his three-year tenure. At every juncture, the incumbent prevailed.

What it did mean, though, was most clubs at the bottom part of the ladder have had 2017 on their minds for months. At least that’s the conclusion I’m drawing from the blizzard of trade rumour activity which took hold in early August. Many a deal looks set to be of the pre-ordained type, and many a deal looks set to be done at the expansion club table.

Finals are still eight days away, so let’s not talk about those teams yet (that’ll come next Wednesday, in the form of a very long column, the kind that editor Patrick Effeney told me he would revoke my credentials for writing). Instead, let’s have some fun with the teams pining for September action, and do so using a matrix chart. (Click to Tweet)

The last time we did this was around the time this whole ‘the finals are set’ narrative began, and we compared how a team was performing relative to expectations versus what they had to gain or lose from trying to win for the rest of the season.

This time, let’s change up the dimensions a little: on the horizontal we have how a team has performed in 2016 versus expectations, and on the vertical we have how a team can be expected to perform in 2017 as we sit here today.

A team’s 2016 performance is a combination of three things: how they went relative to the rest of the bottom ten, how they went compared to their own pre-season expectations, and a subjective fudge factor to make this more fun. A team’s 2017 performance is also a combination of three things but three other things: their +/- on Pythagorean wins, their odds of making the finals according to major online bookies, and a second, unrelated fudge factor that is precision engineered to make this more fun.

Here is each team’s position in the AFL also-rans matrix for 2016.

And here’s some early thoughts on the seasons of each of the bottom ten. These aren’t meant to be exhaustive – we’ve got plenty of time between now and the last week of March next year to cover off the more substantive issues.

Essendon Bombers
The Bombers did about as well as any fair-minded person would have expected: three wins, a percentage with a six handle, and a handful of heavy defeats to the top rated sides in the competition.

There were some positives amidst the losses, though. New head coach John Worsfold had his team bought into a clear system of defence and ball movement very early on, which no doubt contributed to the avoidance of many batterings. Essendon uncovered some young talent that would otherwise have spent more time on the vine, including Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti and the nearly-discarded Orazio Fantasia. Darcy Parish would have likely played 20 games with or without the unique circumstances Essendon found themselves in, but he and Zach Merrett were turned to as central cogs for this midfield. They both did really well. Their top ups were certainly more miss than hit on the field, but in Matt Dea the Bombers have found at worst a very handy back up to their key position stocks; they could also hold on to James Kelly for another year or two.

As to where they go next, there is more uncertainty here than with any other team in the bottom half of the ladder. Yes, they will have most of their WADA-banned players back for the start of pre-season, but a year out of the game is a year out of the game. They should be good, and will certainly better than they were this year just passed, but you’d be mad to pick them as a finalist.

Brisbane Lions
The Lions weren’t expected to contend for finals this season, but they also weren’t expected to join a very exclusive club.

Brisbane were inept defensively, conceding an average of 131 points per game – literally double what the Sydney Swans conceded, and four goals more than the 17th-best defence at Essendon. On the way there, the Lions conceded 100 points in 18 of their 22 games, and the other four saw scores of 90 or more. Brisbane won three of those four, in what were their three wins for the season.

The biggest positive for the Lions were the 56 games they managed to get on the clock for their young key position prospects (Josh Schache, Harris Andrews, Daniel McStay and Eric Hipwood). The negatives were everywhere: injuries, bad form, off-field rifts, and the continuation of administrative malpractice – all of which culminated in the removal of Justin Leppitsch as head coach.

Next year, with a new coach and a young list, will likely end with the Lions kicking around the bottom of the ladder once again. There’s a decent enough team here if you squint a little – the midfield is full of B+ talent which should perform better than it has shown over the past couple of years. Schache and co. have shown strong signs that they will develop into very good key position players, and HQ, finally, looks set to intervene and get the club’s administration on the right track.

Fremantle Dockers
This season was a cataclysm for Fremantle. We talked about them around the middle part of the year, mostly looking for the positives in the playing list and charting a course to contention. At that point, they hadn’t won a game, and they ended up winning four of their last 12 matches, including their last over the weekend.

As a reminder, the Dockers lost Nat Fyfe, Aaron Sandilands, Michael Johnson, Harley Bennell and Alex Pearce to season-ending injuries in the early part of the season (Bennell didn’t play at all). That amplified a problem which showed as early as Round 1, in that the Dockers tried to play a more expansive game style with a team of players mostly unable to do so.

For a team expecting to contend, this year can be considered nothing short of a catastrophe. But in the crisis came opportunity, and the Dockers were able/forced to get games into their youngsters in a way they hadn’t in recent years. In doing so, Fremantle found Connor Blakely, Lachie Weller, Darcy Tucker and Sam Collins as viable best 22 players, and showed that in Matthew Taberner and Michael Apeness, there are the bones of a key position stable up forward. They’re just missing one or two players, currently playing for other clubs.

Depending on who you ask, the rebound will be swift (captain David Mundy) or somewhat less swift (coach Ross Lyon). I’m in the latter’s camp, and I expect the Dockers will have both eyes on Lyon’s contract end date of 30 November 2020 as their next window of contention.

Gold Coast Suns
It was another year of poor performance for the elder expansion team, in a season that was driven into the ground by injury once again. Since Gary Ablett went down with a season-ending shoulder injury in Round 16, 2014, the Suns have won 11.5 of their 49 games, and have struggled to break out of a jog.

Their 2016 started full of promise with three straight wins, but it quickly unravelled from there as the Suns went on a ten-game losing streak. They’ve also ended the year with five consecutive losses, albeit three of those by single-digit margins.

For most of their existence, the Suns have looked a good midfielder or two, or three, short, and so it was this season.

Unfortunately for the Gold Coast – and really, for the AFL at large – that situation won’t be remedied in the short-term. Blue-chip talent in Dion Prestia, Jaeger O’Meara and even potentially David Swallow, the latter two who have had careers wrecked by injury, is headed out the door. They’ll join Harley Bennell, Charlie Dixon and a host of other very good to excellent players who started at the Suns but saw fit to leave.

I wrote earlier in the season that it would be unfortunate for the first story of the Gold Coast Suns to be one of ‘what ifs’. It is now almost certainly their fate.

Carlton Blues
Could Carlton’s season have worked out any better if they tried?

To start the year 6-5 was almost unthinkable, and in hindsight wins against Collingwood and Geelong are certainly meritorious. Everything was coming up Brendon (Bolton), and the Blues were the darlings of the first half of the year. We checked in on them during the bye period, busting the myth regarding the team’s youth status along the way.

That proved the turning point – not my article, but the holding back of young players – and from midway in the season, the Blues won a solitary game. They also lost four of their last ten by two goals or less, including against West Coast and Sydney in back-to-back weeks. Their draw certainly got tougher, but like the good operators they’re becoming, Carlton appear to have steered into that skid and come out with the fifth-best set of picks in 2016.

That’s pretty much the best the brass at Carlton could have hoped for, right? Avoid the wooden spoon, win some games, show some ticker in a number of close losses, and show off some of the youngsters. Mission accomplished.

Like last year though, the Blues’ real season is just beginning. Another big turnover of the list should be in prospect, as Carlton continue the mammoth task of rebuilding their playing stocks – and, let’s be honest, the club. Both are off to a decent start.

Richmond Tigers
Richmond had a slightly less-bad version of Fremantle’s season: hopes of contention, a couple of new additions, a rash of injuries, a collapse in the game plan, and a near-total flameout from there.

It didn’t end in depression like out west, but eight wins, six of them against Essendon (twice), Carlton, Brisbane, Fremantle and Gold Coast, is not ideal for a team that had ambition.

Richmond’s 2017 shapes as fascinating. There’s little doubt about the playing stocks, particularly at the top of the list, but they lack a football identity – indeed, they shape shift in games, or congeal into a puddle of indecision and risk aversion. According to reports, there has been a near-total clean-out of the assistant coaching ranks. That must indicate the target is firmly on the head coach’s back should there be another bad season with this playing group.

Collingwood Magpies
As forecast in the pre-season, we saw glimpses of Nathan Buckley’s fully formed vision for Collingwood in 2016. They were fleeting, as a 9-13 record would suggest, and the Pies slumped to their fifth-straight season of descent from an almighty high in 2011.

There were plenty of positives, particularly towards the back end of the year as it became clear the Pies are sorted through the middle of the ground. While Patrick Dangerfield is almost certainly the recruit of the summer, this guy isn’t too far behind.

We still don’t know how good their attacking lines are, because most of their first-choice players missed large portions of the season, but we know where their attention must lie in the next off season or two: defensive personnel.

Collingwood’s defence needs a serious injection of talent. Fortunately, there’s plenty of defenders set to be on the market, so the deals will be there for the Pies to make.

Next year must be the start of Collingwood’s rise, and I suspect it will be – if they can sort out their back six.

Melbourne Demons
There was a bit of Charles Dickens about Melbourne’s 2016 season. There were times where it looked as if the Demons had finally conquered… their demons… and there were times, such as the weekend just passed, where it was clear there was still plenty of work to be done.

A 10-12 season, Melbourne’s best since 2006, is nothing to sneeze at, particularly for a team that looked almost a carbon copy of the 2016 Brisbane Lions just three years ago. Paul Roos has worked wonders with the club both on and off the field, and the team’s recruiting staff should be nominated for an Order of Australia for services to Australian football, such is the scale of the challenge they have not just overcome, but have wiped from our memories, in recent years.

As recently as a fortnight ago, it looked like Melbourne could sneak into the top eight. It turned out to be a fleeting moment, as the Dees lost their attacking flair demonstrated in the first half of the year in their final two games. That’s fine, and doubly so when you consider they trotted out one of the most consistently young teams in the league in 2016.

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times. One would think there’s a greater prospect of good times ahead than there has been at any stage in recent memory for Melbourne.

Port Adelaide Power
Ugh, where to begin. Coming into the season, the biggest question mark hanging over Port Adelaide was how they were going to fit their three tallest players into the same team. It turns out they got a combined 26 games out of Charlie Dixon (18), Matthew Lobbe (eight) and Patrick Ryder (zero), and for much of the season played an undersized key defender as their primary ruckman. Go figure.

It was symbolic of Port’s season in many respects: confusion and a muddled identity. There was a time, albeit early in the season, that the Power looked set to join the likes of Richmond and Fremantle as contenders on the scrap heap. At times, Port Adelaide looked like a tour de force, capable of finishing any team in a quarter of furious attacking play. At other times, they couldn’t stop the Fremantle Dockers from getting a run on.

They avoided the bottom six in the end, but a second straight season out of the promised land, and with a full season performance that saw them earn 11-and-a-bit Pythagorean wins, surely amplifies the pressure on the coaching staff heading into 2017.

The bones of a good team are all here, there is no doubt about that. They have their superstar: Robbie Gray smashed planets for most of the season, on his way to a ridiculous stat line. He recorded 26 disposals, 4.8 tackles, 4.6 inside 50s, six clearances, 13.7 contested possessions, 400 metres gained, 8.2 score involvements and 1.3 goals per game off of his own boot. They are not dissimilar to Nat Fyfe’s 2015 report card.

It isn’t panic stations for the Power; they have a young list (now that Jay Schulz has moved on, Justin Westhoff is their oldest player) and plenty of their most important cogs are in the bottom third of the AFL’s age profile. The question is not necessarily whether Ken Hinkley, whose tactical innovation has been absorbed into the playbooks of every switched on coach in the league, can put together a gameplan that makes best use of his side’s considerable talents. Hinkley has been around the traps, and has six months on the sidelines to work on it.

Yes, that is important, but what looms as more important is whether the club’s administrators, particularly their high-profile chairman, emboldened by one-and-a-bit seasons of prominence, have the patience to deal with another year of middling performance. I suspect they do not.

St Kilda Saints
In the end, it was two away blow-out losses, to West Coast and Adelaide, that saw the Saints miss an unfathomable trip to September. Wipe a Round 8, 103-point loss to West Coast, and a Round 11, 88-point loss to Adelaide off of their balance sheet, and the Saints eke over the line against North Melbourne by half a percentage point.

Missed it by that much.

The Saints fulfilled the pre-season promise to play a frantic, high-pressure brand of football. It served them well against teams of all shapes and sizes, as wins against Geelong and the Western Bulldogs, and close losses to Hawthorn and early-season-North Melbourne attest.

There is plenty to like, but there is also plenty to be cautious about. St Kilda won 12 games, sure, but those wins include double ups against Carlton and Essendon, and all 12 victories occurred in Melbourne. Finishing ninth will likely mean the Saints have a much tougher draw than they were granted in 2016, and their win tally doesn’t mesh with a percentage of 95.7 per cent.

For all of the young talent, Nick Riewoldt and Leigh Motagna in particular remain among the team’s best contributors.

On the plus side, the Saints played this season without any semblance of key position defender talent, and will have Jake Carlisle and Hugh Goddard patrolling their defensive 50 in 2017. Their off-season looms large as they look to build upon very solid foundations set over the past two seasons.

The real season begins now…ish
Finals football is great, and we’ve been made to wait an extra week for it this season. If the tea leaves are correct, we’ll be made to wait for it next season, and the season after that, too. For all of the negatives elements of this decision, one positive is that it gives us time to reflect on the year for those teams that aren’t going to be playing for the big prize in the month ahead.

There’s plenty of time for long post-mortems – the kind which many clubs no doubt began a month or two ago when it became clear September was a step too far in 2016. For now, how are you feeling about your team’s season? And how are you placed for 2017 and beyond?