Melbourne, Canberra, North Queensland and Brisbane can win the comp and Canterbury and Gold Coast can’t. So where does that leave Cronulla and Penrith?
They’re the two wild cards. It’s hard to predict where they stand going into the finals – and for very different reasons.
It wasn’t so long ago that the Sharks were on a sensational winning streak that stretched to 15 games, but they now enter the playoffs with the worst form of any of the top eight teams over the last five rounds.
Cronulla have lost four of their last five and have gone from playing for the minor premiership against the Storm on Saturday night to missing the all-important top two. They are now forced to travel to Canberra for a date with the Raiders, who have seemingly forgotten how to lose.
Could the Sharks be headed out the back door by halfway through the finals series, or will they stage a dramatic recovery that sees them still leapfrog the second week of the finals by beating Canberra and going straight to a grand final qualifier?
Right now, the likelihood is that in week two they will have to play for their survival, but based on their best form this season you’ve got to say they are at least still a chance of pulling it together again quicker than that.
Penrith, with some of the best young players in the competition, are often described as a team of the future. The question is: can that future arrive in the next few weeks?
This will be the first finals experience for each of their halves, Bryce Cartwright and Nathan Cleary. Cleary only made his first-grade debut this year and Cartwright, who made his debut in 2014, was out injured by the time the Panthers made the finals that year.
But, like Cartwright and Cleary, Benji Marshall and Robbie Farah were young players in key positions who were experiencing finals footy for the first time when Wests Tigers won the comp in 2005.
It’s a watching brief with the Sharks and Panthers in the first week of the finals. Now that we’ve switched to finals mode, we’ll know much more about what they’re capable of after we’ve seen them in action.
The Bulldogs and Titans don’t warrant much discussion when it comes to trying to work out who will win the premiership.
The competition table was lying when the Bulldogs were still in the top four with two rounds to go. (Click to Tweet)Now the truth has been told and they will enter the finals in seventh place, coming off the back of three straight losses.
Their style of play has no hope of getting them four straight wins against top-rate finals opponents.
The Titans lost their last two games, but still picked up the last available place in the finals because no other team was good enough to take the chance to go past them. Well done for getting there, but they are just making up the numbers.
Melbourne have had an interesting last four weeks, losing to Canberra, beating Manly, losing to Brisbane and beating Cronulla.
They’re in the top two, they’re extremely well-prepared by a great coach in Craig Bellamy and driven by two superstar players in Cooper Cronk and Cameron Smith, but the Raiders and Broncos each found legitimate ways of beating them. There was no fluke about it.
The Storm were impressive in beating the Sharks and can obviously still win the comp, but their aura is not quite as strong as it was five or six weeks ago.
Canberra have simply kept on winning. When a place in the top four opened up, they grabbed it, and when an unlikely top-two spot went on offer they were unflinching in taking that as well.
Now they’ve got a home game against an uncertain Cronulla and a win would mean that in week three of the finals they compete for a place in the grand final. Of course they can win the comp.
The Cowboys are a huge threat. A couple of times this season they looked like had just a bit of a premiership hangover, but it wasn’t there for long. In the last three rounds, they knuckled down with three straight wins to make sure of a top-four spot.
Last season, the Cowboys went to Melbourne at the preliminary final stage and beat the Storm. There is no reason they can’t beat them in Melbourne again, this time in the first week of the finals.
Brisbane’s best form this season is at least as good as any other team and better than most, but they paid a big price for a form slump because it made it very difficult for them to finish in the top four.
They recovered to win their last five games and although it wasn’t quite enough to get them back in the top four it has restored their rating as genuine contenders.
I’m going for the Broncos, Raiders, Cowboys and Panthers to win this week’s games and the Cowboys to win the comp.
Zenpai
Guest
Lol do you not realize we didn't want a Friday game? Melbourne storm sooks they don't get enough and THEN say they don't want it. We would of have had more days off if it was Friday or Saturday so you should be greatful, you'd love them to lose but it's just not going to happen
1st&10
Guest
Go you Raiders . As the cobwebs cont to grow in the Sharks trophy cabinet -- Comment from The Roar's iPhone app.
Squidward
Roar Rookie
Go support the PNG QLD cup team you turncoat
up in the north
Roar Rookie
It's simple really. 1: Titans don't have the depth . 2: Panthers are a year or two early. 3: Bulldogs have issues. 4: Broncos are starting to think about putting uncle Wayne into the old folks home. 5: Cowbies are starting to get a bit of a roll on. 6: Sharkz - I'm seeing a fish out of water 7: Raiders I just want to see sticky go into meltdown if he gets a bad result. Al la coach of Australia. 8: Storm I want to start a pool onhow many times Cam Smith takes out JT late. thats mine
Chris
Guest
Week 3 will be in Sydney
Chris Morrison
Guest
I will go Broncos, Sharks (wighton a huge loss to go with Austen), Storm and Penrith. Storm will win the comp.
Agent11
Guest
I think Ricky will put Rapana to fullback and bring Brenko Lee into the side. Santo barely has any first grade experience let alone finals. Will see what happens though...
Albo
Guest
A lot of confidence to have in a team that has lost its last three matches when a top 4 spot was on the line, and they looked lucky to even get that close in each game, now up against a team that has won 7 of 8 (with just a golden point loss), and who still seem to be improving ? I think it is Penrith who have had some break even luck. Despite not getting their earned home game , but up against a team well below par now for weeks. I expect Penrith to continue on their winning way, and then meet Cronulla somewhere in Sydney the following week, and then line up against the Storm in the Preliminary Final, where their run probably comes to an end as the Panthers just never beat the Storm in any era ! I see a Storm v Cowboys Grand Final.
Jara W
Guest
Geez no one will be able to say they didn't earn it if they pull it off. Need to beat the Top 3 favourites "on the trot". Sounds like a job for the Broncos!!
Kingcowboy
Guest
Albo agree with your assessment of big Matty Scott but JT to me has been really good the last couple of weeks. Morgan and Coote have to lift for us to beat the Storm. They have two great players in Smith & Cronk and one of the best coaches ever in Bellamy. Should be a cracker!
Albo
Guest
He may be one of the best ever, but right now, over the past few weeks he has been playing well below his best. Whether he is carrying injury, or his tonsillitis has knocked him around, or whether his body is worn out after another tough year, but he is below his best right now. This issue, along with the ongoing back problem for Matt Scott , I think make them a bit vulnerable to the Storm in Melbourne on the weekend.
Renegade
Roar Guru
So it wasn't tucked when he engaged contact.... Like I said look at the footage that the judiciary looked at, it's quite clear. Two completely different tackles.... Not going to say the judiciary system is consistent. But the Ennis call was right. 4 weeks for wighton seems excessive... Is that the potential suspension?
zim
Roar Rookie
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Crj6i_zUMAEzUZw.jpg:large You don't need any contact at all with the head at all for a shoulder charge. None. He should have had some sort of charge levelled against him. If contact with the head is all you are basing it off it's Wighton's head that hits Edward's head, not the shoulder. Both should have been charged and the fact that 1 got nothing and 1 got 4 weeks is an absolute disgrace.
Joe
Roar Rookie
What the Dogs need to do is take a good look at the Storm v Panthers game early in the season to see how to defend Cartwright and how to attack Peachy. Just get right up there in defence and shut him down and they have the players to do it because the Morris boys are pretty good defenders as is Reynolds, Mybe and Jackson. Shut down Cartwright and you have nullified a big part of the Panthers attack. Moylan is the other. Any sets close to the line move some of the big boys one out and run them at the Peachy. In fact they should run Jackson and Kasiano at Peachy all day to tire him out. Tries to Proctor and Bromich were the end result of this tactic when Storm played them.
MAX
Guest
Agree with you both. Rapana stopped the wilt agin Manly and yesterday WST never recovered from the kick off going out on the full. Boyd, Vaughan and Lee seem off the boil. Maloney, Townsend and Fifita will improve from their downers last week. Pressing the reality button,the winner of Storm v Cowboys is sitting pretty with Canberra the only danger. It may be noted that each has a reliable goal kicker.
Renegade
Roar Guru
That doesn't look like a behind the goal post shot.... Have a look at the footage that fox sports aired last night. If we're going off textbook, arm is away from the body when engaging contact and no contact with head.... Not a shoulder charge.
jamesb
Guest
In all likelihood, it looks like a Storm/ Cowboys GF. But for nostaglia, what about Canberra v Penrith GF. A replay of the 1990/91 grand finals. It's a long shot, but it may happen.
andrew
Guest
"they will lift for the semis" - assumes that their opponent won't? The dogs have been trying, their structure is just poop. There were several times on Friday night when graham took the ball at first receiver and gave it to Mbye for a hit up - If Farah was holding the Tigers back, Graham is holding the Dogs back. The only thing they have going for them is the extra few days to prepare and a bit more finals experience.
zim
Roar Rookie
http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/1733f58e154643630f498998993a7f5e?width=400 On someone that doesn't have the ball. No wrapping at all. It is the definition of a shoulder charge. No way ennis should not have gotten a charge.
danwain
Guest
Shocked that Wighton has been charged off the back of Ennis being let off, and Buettners explanation has only muddied the waters further. They really don't help themselves at all do they.... That hurts the Raiders, even think that Sharks may go in favourites now.