The Sydney Swans’ dismal qualifying final result was the red and white’s fourth consecutive loss in a finals match, dating back to the 2014 grand final.
Excluding that infamous horror showing against the Hawks in 2014, the Swans have subsequently kicked a combined 21 goals and 40 behinds in three finals against Fremantle, North Melbourne and the Giants, scoring seven goals in each match.
While the Swans have had a fantastic year and already achieved so much with their in-season rebuild, questions must be asked about the mental scarring the 2014 grand final continues to have on some of the playing group.
In that game, the Swans’ ‘bottom six’ were found wanting (although they did have plenty of friends). Gary Rohan, Jake Lloyd and Ben McGlynn are three that come to mind that had horror days.
And on Saturday, the pattern was eerily similar again. Except this time around, that cohort are more seasoned and settled in the side.
Gary Rohan is a blistering excitement machine, but come September his game-awareness seemingly disappears in the heat. He needs a strong final this weekend to take the next step.
Jake Lloyd continues to develop in a rebounding flanker role, but Saturday’s 26 possession game was marred by some clangers at pivotal moments. He is an up-and-comer that needs to rid himself of the ‘F’ pressure mantra.
On Saturday, much was made of the physicality of the Giants, and plenty will be analysing the actions of Steve Johnson and Shane Mumford in coming days, maybe even at the tribunal.
What was most impressive was how the Giants completely disrupted and pressured the Swans handball and carry game.
Despite the scoreline reading 39-37 at halftime, the Swans were getting absolutely pulverised.
By the game’s conclusion, Steve Johnson kicked 0.5 with two out on the full, and Jeremy Cameron scored 4.4. Had they landed some of those gettable shots, a 12-13 goal win was on the cards.
The Giants also drew out the Swans massive Achilles heel: a complete lack of class and depth with ball use by foot.
Buddy Franklin had a superb first half, but he was needed in the centre of the ground with his sublime left foot.
As much as they are a hardened physical midfield group, with the exception of Luke Parker and maybe Kieran Jack, the likes of Daniel Hannebery, Josh Kennedy, and Tom Mitchell lack penetration and consistency with their foot-skills.
The ‘fab five’ on the weekend had just 49 kicks amidst 80 handballs, a wonderful insight into the pressure on the ball these players had to endure.
There was no linked handball release to a midfielder running into space; it was complete suffocation.
With Buddy having to play as a quasi-midfielder, and with Kurt Tippett (who appears about as durable as a tissue box) again being waylaid, the forward structure simply fell apart.
Rohan and Isaac Heeney were left obtaining kicks on the halfback line and there was no target, let alone presence, in the rare moments the Swans took the ball beyond centre in the second half.
This week, the Swans are back on sure-footing at the Sydney Cricket Ground. Back forever – and thankfully so from a fan’s perspective too.
After the way they slipped and fell all over what continued to be an average (and that’s being kind) ANZ Stadium surface, that can only be a good thing.
However, the Crows are fresh off a training run against North Melbourne and boast a very solid 11-7 win-loss record against Sydney over the last 18 matches at the SCG.
The Swans took absolutely no chances in their NEAFL grand final on Sunday, also against GWS.
Jeremy Laidler and Toby Nankervis were late withdrawals from the team, and on this basis, the Swans have shown their hand as to who will replace the injured Callum Mills and Tippett.
Losing five finals in a row will not be a fantastic look, and will be a disappointing end to 2016.
The Swans will look to apply their own traditional SCG choke-hold to the Crows midfield to prevent their electrifying forward line, led by Eddie Betts, from taking control of the game.
The one positive is there is a major upside from Saturday’s loss: the Swans won’t be able to play any worse.
david graham
Guest
Ironmonger - I reckon you are right. Soft prep = lack of hardness. Now then. Adelaide didn't have a toughie last week did they? Giants were overly brutal and Mumford - that idiotic media threat about putting a Swan down was outrageous. Umpies should have rubbed out the fool for that one. Mummy was not a nice bloke. At the swans 2012 Lakeside oval he shunned supporters. When he went many were relieved. Not a true Bloods player. Just an arrogant conceited thug.
Buzzwah
Guest
The Swans need to harden up, got smashed up all over the ground. Also, hasn't been much mention of Franklin spraying two very kickable set shots. Had he goaled, would have provided telling momentum.
TomC
Roar Guru
It's fair to call it a neutral ground against GWS, who's home ground is in the same precinct. @anon, I agree with your post on the whole, but should Sydney lose to Adelaide it still won't prove there's a problem. 'Mental scarring' or whatever other vague mumbo-jumbo the proponents of this theory want to use is much less likely to be a factor than the many, many other factors that determine footy results, some of which you've identified.
Cat
Roar Guru
2015 in an Elimination final Sydney played NM at ANZ 2014 in a Qualifying final Sydney played Fremantle at ANZ 2014 in a Preliminary final Sydney played NM at ANZ 2013 in a Semi Final Sydney played Carlton at ANZ 2012 in a Preliminary final Sydney played Collingwood at ANZ So every year for the past 4 years that Sydney earned a home final it's been played at ANZ (grand total of Sydney finals played at SCG = 0) and yet somehow this was a 'neutral' venue and a some kind of surprise and unfair?
anon
Guest
It's an irrelevant stat. 2014 they lost to Hawthorn on their home deck. 2015 they went into the finals missing Kieren Jack, Luke Parker, Lance Franklin. 2016 they played GWS on a neutral ground. GWS had beaten Sydney by 7 goals in their prior encounter. If they lose this week there's a problem.
Ironmonger
Guest
Grubs...Johnson should have also been cited/reported/suspended for his continued high elbow when he is being tackled... I think Swans soft lead up to the finals was partly the reason for them being so off colour. Hopefully this has been the kick up the pants that will spark them into action. They need to become the Hunter and not the Hunted... Swans by 6 (goals).
JR Salazar
Guest
GWS are the new Hawthorn.
Rocko
Roar Guru
Heeney's first final and not everyone will fire. Was at the game and misery :-)
MG
Roar Rookie
There's another word that comes to mind instead of brutal. Who coached them in elbowing and dropping the knee into the kidneys?
MG
Roar Rookie
Hawks need to be very angry. How dear they steal our 2014 Grand Final game plan.
TomC
Roar Guru
Lloyd was fine on Saturday, but Heeney - who wasn't a Swan in 2014 - had a poor game. Actually Aliir wasn't all that great but that's another matter. He got caught in no mans land a lot in defence but I guess that's not clear on TV. Some players played well. Some players played badly. You're picking and choosing your examples in order to find a trend that doesn't exist.
Rocko
Roar Guru
Hawthorn GWS prelim would be brutal.
Rocko
Roar Guru
Tom - thanks - my point re Rohan and Lloyd was that in their development they should be now making meaningful contributions in the pressure of fiinals - 60-100 gamers, The young guys that have come into the group (Aliir Aliir, Papley and Hewett) generally held up ok.
TomC
Roar Guru
'...injuries towards the end of last season'. Ugh. Proof read, Tom.
penguin
Guest
The Giants were brutal, as they had to be. Full credit to Lenny Hayes as the midfield coach on their tackling, smothers and hard bumps. Losing Tippett and Joey was too much for the rest of our mids, who can't seem to have any influence when Joey goes down. Stevie Js act was as deliberate as you can imagine - late, high, with elbow raised. Should get 3 down to 2, but because Joey stayed out there, when he shouldn't have, will probably only miss one game. To me, GWS are the team to beat with no weaknesses and a hard edge. The only things stopping them maybe the GF week shenanigans and youthful over-confidence. Otherwise I think that it is there's to lose.
DingoGray
Roar Guru
The Swans plain and simply didn't handle the physical pressure of GWS or their run and carry style football. They looked slow. Horse and the Leadership group have some work ahead of them.
TomC
Roar Guru
This is a 'trend' based off three finals following the 2014 GF, the first two of which the Swans were battling some pretty bad injuries towards the end of last injury - it's not as if there are abundant, independent examples. Of course when a team gets badly beaten it's likely that their fringe players struggle. That's not eerily similar. That's expectedly similar. It's reasonable to question whether or not the Sydney team is effective enough with the ball to consistently stand up against good sides playing at their best, and therefore they find it hard in finals. But to take the flimsy circumstantial evidence and claim there's some sort of 'mental scarring' is completely facile analysis. Sydney didn't look very mentally scarred the two times they've played Hawthorn at the MCG since the 2014 grand final, both games won by the Swans.
pioneer
Guest
Sydney didn't deserve to win but they weren't helped by the pedantic umpiring on the day.
Rod
Guest
Well said Martin. I fear however that you might be too optimistic. When physicality is in play there seems no ability to respond. Mind you on ground contact appears to be totally ignored but a touch on the shoulder punished
Wayne Stringer
Guest
GWS took a leaf out of Hawthorn's book and crashed and bashed the Swans whenever possible even using the Rugby type second man fall on the player tactic in tackles.