Hawthorn vs Western Bulldogs: Finals Forecast

The team ranked first in contested possession differential plays the team ranked last in contested possession differential. That is one of many interesting wrinkles in a very live semi final between the Hawks and Dogs.

Tonight’s game has already been pitched as a battle between the eggheads and the non-eggheads. The Age’s Rohan Connolly wrote on Wednesday that should the Hawks win tonight, the “debate” on contested possession as being the be all and end all metric for success would be largely put to bed.

Fortunately for us all, that debate was put to bed long ago, at least in the more informed segments of the media.

Contested possessions are important, because they are by definition possessions won in situations where the ball is in dispute. Win more contested possessions, and you are creating more opportunities to get your system going; you are also stopping your opponent from getting their system going. If that sounds important, it’s because it is. But it is also only part of the story.(Click to Tweet)

Need a helpful anecdote? Last weekend, Hawthorn lost the contested possession count by more than 50, yet lost after the siren. The caveman statistical-driven thinking Connolly built his criticism around would say the Cats should have destroyed their old enemy. Instead, it was an indicator of the different styles of play of both sides. Hawthorn are much more centred on defending on the outside and forcing turnovers, rather than throwing numbers at the contest. When the Hawks turn the ball over, they don’t give it back. And where the Hawks turn the ball over – in their forward half, through referred pressure and a tightly defined forward press – is important, too.

As Connolly said in his piece, Hawthorn coach Alastair Clarkson was quoted earlier in the year as saying that the Hawks don’t give a stuff about contested possessions. Like every single discussion using numbers, and indeed most discussions about the game we love, that statement is far more nuanced than many in the media will have you believe.

The game is between the teams ranked first and last in contested possession differential though, even if there isn’t some cosmic meaning lurking beneath the surface. Last weekend saw both sides use their relative strengths to great effect.

Footscray hustled and bustled their way to a victory over a weak and puny West Coast team, who other than a 15 minute patch in the first quarter looked completely overawed. That was testament to the Dogs’ pressure and willingness to commit numbers to the ball, a trait which has quickly become their trademark alongside their finely crafted defensive structures.

The Hawks, by contrast, used their ability to control the ball to counter the heft and aerial powers of Geelong, and it almost came off. Hawthorn lost the contested possession count by an insane 52, but had almost 80 more possessions of the uncontested variety. During the game it was clear that both Alastair Clarkson and Chris Scott were backing their respective systems in, which was what made it such a riveting battle.

Unfortunately, that’s not going to be the story this evening. The Hawks and Dogs played a topsy-turvy game in Round 3, which was the start of Hawthorn’s streak of six wins in games decided by less than two goals. This close shave came about as a result of Dogs’ captain Robert Murphy’s ACL injury in a 2-on-1 marking contest, which resulted in a mark and goal to James Sicily.

The game itself was in Luke Beveridge’s palm all day: the Dogs’ defensive structure and ability to keep the ball scrambling forward still feels like a direct counter to Hawthorn’s outside game, and so it proved. Hawthorn kicked and marked, but couldn’t create any drive, while the Dogs were able to counter punch and create enough scoring opportunities to at first stick with but then run over the Hawks.

It was played at the Docklands, where the Dogs have been a goal-and-a-half better on defence than across all other grounds. In their two games at the ‘G, the Dogs held Collingwood and Melbourne to 53 and 82 points respectively – we can’t infer too much from a sample of two games. The Hawks, by contrast, are almost undistinguishably the same at the MCG versus other grounds at both pointy ends.

Hawthorn proved last weekend that they are still an excellent football team, capable of exerting their influence on games even if they have lost some of their aura of invincibility from recent years. The Cats exploited the Hawks in the air and in their back half; the Dogs will try and exploit the Hawks through the middle of the ground.

It feels like a simple game to call. If the Dogs are able to bring the heat they applied to West Coast last week, there is a massive chance that Hawthorn can’t create enough opportunities to go to work on the outside. A break even through the middle of the ground, or a Hawthorn victory, will see the Dogs struggle to keep up.

The Dogs average contested possession differential in losses during the home-and-away season was +8.1, while in wins it doubled to +17.1. Their biggest victories of the year have come in games where they have smashed their opponents at the break down. One assumes Clarkson knows this, as he would have anticipated Geelong’s moves last week. The issue this week is it is unclear that the Hawks have a reliable counter.

It could be the driver behind Clarkson’s comments on Thursday that this would be a tough, physical encounter. I see Hawthorn’s clearest path to victory as turning this into a rock fight – place more emphasis on winning the ball in tight, and matching the Dogs’ numbers through the middle.

Indeed, Hawthorn’s move to bring in the extra midfielder at the selection table suggests this could be where their thinking is at.

If you think that means I’m picking the Dogs, you’d be correct. This is going to come back and bite me really hard, but I suspect tonight we will witness the end of Fourthorn. The Dogs did everything but beat Hawthorn in Round 3, and minced the Eagles with a commitment to a system that can also serve them well this week.

There was undoubtedly an element of “nobody believes in us” with the Dogs last week; everything from here is upside. Hawthorn are still shooting for immortality, and we can bank on a response in keeping with this.

But match ups matter, and this is not a good match up for Hawthorn. I…I’m picking the Dogs in a tight one, that could reprise the back and forth encounter from Round 3. Let’s say by six points, for fun. Feel free to jump all over me when this fails, and the Hawks win by ten goals.

That’s my Finals Forecast, what’s yours?