Just three matches remain before the 2016 NRL premiers are crowned, with this weekend’s two preliminary finals helping determine who will fight it out for the ultimate prize on the first Sunday of October.
The Melbourne Storm and North Queensland Cowboys return again, while the Canberra Raiders and Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks are back in the penultimate weekend of the season for the first time since 1994 and 2008 respectively.
It will be up to the Sharks to ensure that there is a Sydney representative in this year’s grand final.
However, it is the Storm and Cowboys who will start favourites in this weekend’s preliminary finals, and if they both win through, the trophy will leave New South Wales for a second consecutive year.
Here are the two preliminary final matches previewed in full detail:
Sharks [3] versus Cowboys [4]
Friday, September 23
7:55pm
Allianz Stadium
Last finals meeting: Cowboys 39-0 at 1300SMILES Stadium, second semi-final, 2015.
This season: Cowboys 20-14 at 1300SMILES Stadium, Round 1; Sharks 13-10 at Southern Cross Group Stadium, Round 14.
Only two wins separate the North Queensland Cowboys from becoming the first team since the Brisbane Broncos in 1992-93 to successfully defend a premiership in a unified competition.
The Cowboys’ 26-20 win over the Broncos in extra time last week saw them edge closer to yet another grand final, but to qualify they’ll have to venture to Allianz Stadium, a venue which has served as a finals graveyard for them in recent years, as they take on the Sharks.
Four of the Cowboys’ last five finals campaigns have ended at Allianz Stadium, with two in controversial circumstances, including an elimination final against the Sharks in 2013 in which Beau Ryan scored a seventh tackle try.
Twelve months before that, the Cowboys were also on the wrong end of controversy when a hand-of-God try awarded to Manly conspired against them in a 22-12 defeat.
Again, the Cowboys find themselves at the Moore Park venue with only the Sharks able to stop them qualifying for a third ever decider.
Shane Flanagan’s men will enter Friday night’s match on the back of a week’s break, earned by beating the Canberra Raiders 16-14 in their qualifying final at GIO Stadium last week.
They were able to win without captain Paul Gallen, who was missing due to a back injury, and without vice-captain Wade Graham after he was concussed in the opening minutes of the match and never returned.
Yet while the Sharks would love to qualify for their first grand final since 1997, they’ll still be haunted by last September’s embarrassing 39-0 defeat to the Cowboys in Townsville which showed they still have a long way to go.
That spurred them on to finish third at the end of the 2016 regular season, achieving a club record fifteen wins in succession between rounds 4 and 20, before coming to a halt with four losses and a draw in the final six rounds.
The form of several key players, including Gallen, Ben Barba, Michael Ennis, James Maloney, Jack Bird and Valentine Holmes was a factor in them becoming serious premiership contenders this year.
Twelve months on from their finals drubbing against the Cowboys, the Sharks now have the chance to turn the tables on the reigning premiers as they move closer to that elusive first premiership.
While Sharks fans are excited at the prospect of their first title after half a century of existence, unfortunately, they’ll be left disappointed by midnight on Friday, as the Cowboys should prove too strong here.
For the winner: a berth in the grand final.
For the loser: season over.
Prediction: Cowboys by 18 points.
Storm [1] versus Raiders [2]
Saturday, September 24
7:40pm
AAMI Park
Last finals meeting: Storm 30-18 at GIO Stadium, first qualifying final, 2003.
This season: Raiders 22-8 at GIO Stadium, Round 23.
A flaw in the NRL finals system makes it possible for teams one and two to meet before the grand final, and that’s exactly what will happen for the third consecutive year when the best two sides of 2016 face off at AAMI Park this Saturday night.
The Storm and Raiders proved to be the two most consistent teams over the course of 26 rounds, which makes it a shame that they are facing off on the last Saturday of September rather than the first Sunday of October this year.
Time and time again Craig Bellamy’s men have been tipped to regress since they won the 2012 premiership, with their “Big Three” of Billy Slater, Cooper Cronk and Cameron Smith all on the wrong side of 30.
Yet somehow, the club has defied its critics to remain in premiership contention and even without Slater, who played in Round 1 before his troublesome shoulder flared up again, managed to top the ladder for the first time since 2011.
Slater’s replacement, Cameron Munster, has deputised very well at fullback throughout the season and could even keep the veteran Maroon out of the side next year.
In fact, Munster is being groomed for the Queensland number one guernsey which he will almost certainly inherit from Slater when the 33-year-old eventually retires.
Only the Canberra Raiders stand in the way of the Storm’s first grand final berth since 2012, where they will shoot for their third legitimate title, with the Storm’s 2007 and 2009 titles revoked due to salary cap breaches.
Not since the glory days of 1994, when current coach Ricky Stuart was their halfback and former Queensland coach Mal Meninga was the club’s captain, have Raiders fans been this excited about their team’s chances of a premiership victory.
Ten consecutive wins helped the Raiders to a second place finish, before they lost their qualifying final to the Sharks, leaving their premiership hopes hanging in the balance.
Yet the Green Machine was able to bounce back, beating the Panthers 22-12 to reach the penultimate weekend of the season for the first time since the breakaway Super League competition of 1997.
Beating the Storm in Melbourne, where their recent record is good, would see the Raiders reach their first grand final since 1994 and just their sixth ever.
Reaching the decider would vindicate Ricky Stuart’s decision to abandon the Parramatta Eels at the end of 2013 and return to a club which was in crisis, having recently sacked Josh Dugan and Blake Ferguson.
The Roosters’ 2002 premiership coach took a while to instil some culture and discipline into the club he proudly represented as a player, first finishing second-last in 2014 and then finishing just outside the eight in 2015.
Now, the 49-year-old has the chance to take the Raiders class of 2016 into the grand final, which would bury all of the criticism he has copped in recent years.
However, it’ll be the Storm who will start favourites in their own backyard.
For the winner: a berth in the grand final.
For the loser: season over.
Prediction: Storm by 16 points.
Albo
Guest
Yep ! That's about my reading of it too , Mr X !
Lano
Roar Guru
that's the truth!!
Penrith Punter
Roar Guru
Sharks 20 Cowboys 18 Storm 38 Raiders 16
Clinen
Guest
Gal isn't quite the ball hog he used to be. Think he finally understands that there are other players in the team. For the Sharks he'll be a boost just by making tackles and carting the ball up. Sharks have missed their big men recently.
Edward Kelly
Roar Guru
I almost spilled my lime green milk when I read Storm by 16, seriously!
Harry
Guest
I think the big danger in this game for the Raiders is that they get sucked into a grinding game in the middle of the field as they did in the second half of the Week 1 game against the Sharks. It'll be tempting because they'll want to establish forward dominance over the Storm and play "finals footy". But having Austin back will be a huge bonus to them because his first instinct is always to spread the ball wide in the direction of Leilua and Rapana. Sezer was quoted in the media a couple of days ago saying that if they want to win, they have to keep playing an expansive style - as a fan that's great to hear, but they have to remember it during the game as well.
Avatar
Roar Guru
Under the old McIntyre system, teams one and two couldn't meet until the Grand Final, whereas teams three and four could (in 2005, third-placed Brisbane Broncos lost to fourth-placed Wests Tigers in the semi-final stage).
Fish
Guest
I agree TB, the Raiders have the game to unsettle the Storm. Their constant change in point of attack, and unpredictability will concern the Storm. Add that to the fact that the current best ref, in my opinion, has this match and does not condone too much wrestling and the recipe looks good for Sticky and his boys. Canberra's problem is mistakes, and give Storm too much possession and pay the penalty. If it is close toward the last five, i think the Storms experience will shine through and get them over the line, BUT, if the Raiders have a handy lead by half time, expect to see their confidence go through the roof and a rout may be possible. For mine, Storm by 10.
Fish
Guest
I am not sure having Gallen back is as big a deal as some are making out. Yes he gives them much needed leadership and experience, but he can tend to dominate his halves, making for a stodgy style at times. Can the Sharks carry a bloke that is at best 50%? Then again you could say the same about Scotty and the Cowboys. Difference is Gal has missed a lot of footy. The biggest asset the Sharks have is the referees. These two like a slow game, and the Sharkies play a nice little slow down and niggle style that is going to hamper the Cowboys. Key to this game for the Sharks is Fifita. If he is concentrating on footy and not grub tactics he may well break the game open. So much potential, unfortunately no brain to guide it, much like Dave Taylor. For the Cowboys it is their pack. They have to find a way to absorb the wrestle. Sharks are not as good at the turning the player factor as the Storm, but handy enough. Hit the line and drop, up for a quick play the ball. No need to look for an extra two meters, that will cost time by allowing opposition to get a third man in and turn you. If the Cowboys pack deliver fast play the ball, the Magic Man will do the rest. This will be a close game, and expect bad blood. Prediction Cowboys by 7, and Andrew Fifita to do something so stupid it costs his club a spot in the final.
The Barry
Roar Guru
Yeah - it's not a flaw at all. Top 2 would be on opposite sides of the draw all the way if they both won in week one. You can't guarantee 1 v 2 once one of them lose that first week. If that was in place we'd have week one replays of the Storm v Cowboys and Sharks v Raiders which is a worse result.
The Barry
Roar Guru
Some big wins tipped there. I think both games will be close. I'm tipping the Sharks to scrape home off the back of the Cowboys having played two very tough semi finals. But not with massive confidence given the Cowboys have Thurston. His effort in not just coming up with the game winning play or drawing the game levelling penalty but in directing and cajoling his team around the paddock in the last 15 minutes of normal time and extra time was amazing. I'm also going with the Raiders. I think the Storm would (and potentially will) beat the Cowboys and the Sharks but I don't think they match up well against the Raiders style. Having said that, the Raiders could choke themselves out of this one with errors against an unforgiving Storm side. This one will be fascinating if the Raiders get a couple of early tries and get out to say 12-0. Should be cracking games. This has been a brilliant finals series and last six weeks of the regular season. Good luck to all four teams and their supporters.
AJ Mithen
Expert
Spot on Geoff - It's also 1v2 in the AFL prelim on Friday when Geelong flog Sydney.
AJ Mithen
Expert
Cowboys by 18??!! Can you lend me some cash I can use to bet on that???
Clinen
Guest
18 and 16 point margins? Turn it up! Sharks by 6 Storm by 8
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Guest
Not sure its a flaw in the finals system that its 1 vs 2 on Saturday. The Raiders lost to the Sharks in the first week so they moved to the other side of the draw. If they'd beaten the Sharks they would have been playing the Cowboys on Friday night. Such fantastic match ups this weekend and you could present a case for all 4 teams winning. Toss of the coin jobs. The Sharks are well rested and have Gallen back but they are up against the best big and little men in the comp - Thurston and Taumololo. The Storm will start favourites at home but the Raiders will be confident having won 11 out of their past 12 and have won 3 out of the last 4 against the Storm played in Melbourne.