Sharks vs Cowboys: The definitive NRL finals stats preview

The Cowboys come to Sydney having played out brutally tough extra time footy in the heat.

To be the first side since 1993 to win back to back titles, the North Queenslanders must get past the boys from the Shire.

The Sharks have had a week off to recover. Will that help them win through to their first Grand Final in a unified competition since 1978?

Cronulla Sharks vs North Queensland Cowboys
7:55pm, Friday 23 September, Allianz Stadium

The History

Overall: This will be the 41st meeting of these two sides. It is 24-16 in the Sharks favour.

Form: The Sharks have won two of their last five games, the Cowboys four of their last five.

At this Venue: These sides have only met at this venue once before. That was the qualifying final in 2013 and the Sharks ran out 20-18 winners – in controversial circumstances if memory serves. Even if it doesn’t, it’s a fair guess!

Finals: These teams have only met twice in finals: In 2013 where the Sharks won 20-18 and last year in the semi final in Townsville where the Cowboys blew the Sharks away 39-0.

The last ten: The Cowboys have won six of the last ten encounters between these sides, the Sharks four. However, the boys from the Shire won the last encounter here in Sydney in June 13-10.

Against top eight sides: The Sharks have played 13 games against the other teams that finished in the top eight this season. They have recorded nine wins, one draw and three losses. Notably those three losses were against the Storm, Raiders and Cowboys. However, they also beat each of those sides.

The Sharks only loss at home was to the Raiders in round 22.

The Cowboys have also played 13 games against the other top eight sides this year. They have won seven and lost six. Five of those losses were when playing away from home. The only top eight side the Cowboys have beaten away this year was the Bulldogs in round 25.

Referees:
Ben Cummins has refereed these two sides four times. The Sharks have only won one of those, in 2008.

Gerard Sutton has reffed three matches between the Sharks and the Cowboys. The Sharks have won two, including their most recent encounter this year. However, Sutton also controlled the 39-0 drubbing in the final in Townsville last year.

Ben Cummins has reffed 36 Sharks games and the Sharks have won 21 (58%). Cummins has run 41 Cowboys matches and the North Queenslanders have won 21 (51 per cent).

Gerry Sutton has reffed 23 Sharks games and the Sharks have won nine (39%). Sutton has run 43 Cowboys matches and they’ve have won just 19 (44 per cent) of those.

Scoring by Quarters
I have painstakingly kept records of each NRL sides scoring in 2016. We can now get a pretty good indication of how this match will play out by comparing the Sharks home attack and defence against the Cowboys away attack and defence. To make this even more precise, we will only examine their scores against the other sides that finished the home and away season in the top eight.

Sharks Attack/Cowboys Defence

It seems fairly clear that the bulk of the scoring for the Sharks in this game is likely to occur in the first half, with the Cowboys defence stepping up in the second half and the Sharks attack winding down.

The Sharks need to put on points in the first 40 minutes.

Cowboys Attack/Sharks defence

Gee, the Cowboys haven’t scored that well against top eight sides this season, averaging just 16.1 points a game away from home. Their best scoring comes in the last 20 minutes of games. The Sharks may have built too much of a lead by then.

Statistically predicted score: 18-17 Sharks

Defence

Team Stats – average per game 2016

Both these teams have superb defensive stats in regards to line breaks and tries conceded, as well as metres conceded.

Otherwise the Cowboys have the edge in three crucial stats: they miss fewer tackles, concede fewer penalties and make significantly fewer errors. The Sharks are the most penalised side this year.

Player Stats

And speaking of conceding penalties, the Sharks boast the three most penalised players in 2016 in Ennis, Maloney and Fifita. None of them have been sin binned this year.

Michael Morgan has a few errors in him and the Sharks will be hoping he gets the dropsies.

Now, everyone knows that Maloney and Thurston miss tackles and will be targeted. However, both have minders.

Thurston’s minder is Gavin Cooper and he misses 1.5 tackles on average. I’d try and send a flying Ben Barba past them. Defending next to Maloney is Wade Graham who misses 2.7 tackles. I’d target that with a Jason Taumalolo.

Attack

Team Stats – average per game 2016

Before you saw the comparison of their key attacking stats above, I’d bet you would have said that the Cowboys attack was far superior to that of the Sharks. Not so.

In fact, the Sharks slightly shade the Cowboys courtesy of their better tackle breaks. and – would you believe – the Sharks get more sympathy from the refs than the Cowboys.

Player Stats

That Andrew Fifita is a tackle breaking machine. On top of that, he’s also a superb offloader, having made the third most this season after Bryce Cartwright and Joey Leilua. The likes of Maloney and Barba love the second phase play they get from him.

The Cowboys attack revolves around the 33-year-old Johnathan Thurston, as you’d expect. However, he gets some pretty handy support from Michael Morgan and Lachlan Coote.

Ben Barba is the Sharks main creative player from fullback and the support he gets from Ennis, Maloney and the benched Townshend is not that stellar – at least as far as the numbers are concerned.

Jason Taumalolo is the flavour of the month. He has run into top form at exactly the right time. The Sharks will need to curb his damage. Similarly, the Cowboys will have to be on their game to limit the damage of Andrew Fifita.

The Danger Men

Matt Prior: “What?!?” I hear you cry. Seriously. Matt Prior had his best ever game last start.

His averages per game for the last three seasons combined are as follows:

• 39 minutes
• 9.9 runs
• 24 tackles
• 84 metres

Last start his stats (with percentage improvement) looked like this:

• 73 minutes (+87%)
• 22 runs (+122%)
• 37 tackles (+54%)
• 219 metres (+161%)

If Prior continues this form I’m not sure that the Cowboys have an answer for it. Prior must surely now be in serious reckoning for rep jumpers.

Ben Barba: If the Cowboys can curb Barba’s impact on the game, they’ll have gone a long way towards winning. If they don’t he could well put the Cows away.

Andrew Fifita: He’s one big, determined unit. He makes huge metres, lots of tackles and is an offloader par excellence. If he’s on his game we’ll quickly find out how fit Matt Scott actually is.

Johnathan Thurston: He’s not just the best player in this game, he’s the best player in the world. When the chips were down against the Broncos last week the great JT stepped up and won it.

Jason Taumalolo: The wrecking ball is on fire. He’s making big metres and getting quick play the balls. Can the Sharks limit his damage?

Michael Morgan: His form this season hasn’t been quite as good as last. However, he might be running back into form at just the right time. His speed and great passing can cause havoc for the Sharks defenders.

Who is going to win and why

Since the last time the Sharks were in a Premiership decider of a unified competition – 1978 – they have been in six preliminary finals (’88, ’96, ’99, ’01, ’02, ’08) and have lost them all. No other side has lost that many.

However, that streak will be broken on Friday night.

After having a brilliant run with injuries for most of the season, the Cowboys have lost a couple of crucial players in Antonio Winterstein and Ethan Lowe. Further, Matt Scott is clearly playing injured.

On top of that Lachlan Coote is suffering a major crisis of confidence at the back AND the Cowboys have had to travel to Sydney – where they’ve only won three matches this year – after an exhausting 90 minutes of nonstop football in the Townsville heat.

The Sharks have had a week off and will be keen to exact revenge for last year’s finals drubbing up north. Only the great JT stands in their way.

Prediction: Sharks 1-12.