The preliminary finals are here – just three games left in what has been an incredible season of AFL footy. The big question on everyone’s lips is, ‘who is going to win their way through to the grand final?’
Statistically speaking, the most common result in the preliminary finals is for the teams who won through from the qualifying finals to progress – that would mean a GWS vs Geelong premiership decider.
Every now and then, though, things go awry. It happened just last year when Hawthorn made it through to the grand final and won their third consecutive flag, despite having to take the long route via the semi-finals.
That arguably happened because the Fremantle Dockers, despite finishing on top of the ladder, just weren’t that strong a team, especially in the heat of finals. And Geelong and GWS both feel a little vulnerable this year.
The Giants are playing only their second final ever and while they started their finals history incredibly well two weeks ago against the Swans, you could still reasonably ask whether they’ll be able to maintain the rage.
The Cats have been a good team this year but they’ve had some poor patches and despite them getting the win against Hawthorn in the qualifiers, I didn’t find their performance all that convincing.
I’ll be putting up my in-depth previews of the two matches to come over today and tomorrow, so check there for some more detailed thoughts on both matches.
Spoiler alert though; I’m tipping the Cats will get over the line on Friday night and the Bulldogs to pull off the upset on Saturday.
Michael DiFabrizio
Friday night should be very, very interesting. I would have had the Swans ahead of the Cats going into the finals series, but the loss to the Giants shook out some confidence.
With that defeat in mind, and with some injury doubts coming from last week’s win over Adelaide, you start to favour the side that was sitting at home on the couch.
There’s another way to look at week one form, though. Given Geelong were a missed shot after the siren away from losing to Hawthorn – a team that subsequently wasn’t good enough to advance to a preliminary final – do they start to look shaky, too?
But the Cats have earned home-state advantage, and they have the top-end midfield talent to match the strong output of the Swans’ main ball winners. I say it’s another close Geelong win.
In the other match, as good as the Western Bulldogs’ story is and as great as it has been for support to rally behind them, the Giants should get the job done.
After GWS obliterated the concern over them being ready for finals in week one, it has become difficult to see them not making the grand final.
BJ Conkey
Whoever wins Friday night’s game will be the team to beat in the grand final for mine, simply because they’ll have that all-important MCG experience a week out from the big dance.
I know the Swans have injury concerns but the momentum from a huge win will have the Sydney side in a good frame of mind. Eleven Swans had 20 or more disposals last week, including dominant performances from Josh Kennedy, Tom Mitchell and Isaac Heeney.
Geelong have fresh legs on their side, but will fresh legs be better than battle-hardened ones? The first quarter will be key in determining that.
As Swans coach John Longmire said this week, Sydney can’t just focus on Patrick Dangerfield as Tom Hawkins and Joel Selwood can also produce blinders. Sydney to win the midfield – and the match by three goals.
I keep tipping against the Bulldogs and they keep surprising me, so Dogs fans will probably be happy that I’m tipping against them once again.
We know that the Giants are a team that are hard to stop when they’re on a roll, especially at home. The Giants won the last time the two played at Spotless in Round 9 but the Bulldogs were missing several players.
Steve Johnson played well that day so GWS will be hampered without the suspended marquee player. However, they’ve got more than enough firepower without him. Jeremy Cameron is hard to stop on any day and the preliminary final is his chance to help create history for the club.
The Western Bulldogs didn’t panic against Hawthorn after being behind early, but they can’t afford to have a slow start against the Giants.
Despite how well the likes of Jake Stringer, Marcus Bontempelli and Jordan Roughead played last week, the emotion of finally breaking the Hawks’ dynasty was like a grand final win in itself for the Dogs and it might be too much to ask them to lift again.
GWS to get the job done.
| Semi-finals | BJ Conkey | Michael | Josh | The Crowd |
| GEE v SYD | SYD | SYD | GEE | SYD |
| GWS v WB | GWS | GWS | WB | GWS |
| Last round | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Total | 144 | 141 | 139 | 144 |
Kavvy
Guest
The most interesting thing about your stat is that 8/12 have happened in the last ten seasons. Exemplifies the uneveness of the comp the past decade i.e how big the gap from the good sides (largely the same handful of sides over that decade) to the bad sides
EddyJ
Guest
If Sydney loses against Geelong, they'll become the first team in the 22-round season format (which began in 1970) with a percentage of over 150% to miss out on the grand final. Hawthorn (1971, 1989, 2012, 2015), West Coast (1991), Essendon (2000), Geelong (2007, 2008, 2011), St Kilda (2009), Collingwood (2011) have all made the grand final. That's 11 out of 11. Will Sydney be team number 12?
mds1970
Roar Guru
I'm tipping the all-Sydney Grand Final. Swans looked good against Adelaide last week. McVeigh injury is a worry, and I think it's a risk playing Gary Rohan, but a risk worth taking. Cats will be a tough opponent, especially in Melbourne; but the Swans have the class to get the job done. I'm tipping the Giants at home to get through against the Bulldogs. The Bulldogs have twice surprised me this finals series; but to back up on the road against a refreshed Giants side is probably just too big an ask. Wishful thinking maybe, but I think the Giants will go through - quite an achievement in just their 5th season in the AFL.
swift foetus
Guest
if tppo plays then cats win
Neveragain
Guest
Hopefully a Sydney v Bulldogs GF. Can’t stand GWS, wish they weren’t even in the comp to be honest. Dogs are big outsiders – crazy!!, considering they destroyed the WC in Perth and beat up on the 3 time prems the Hawks. Dogs are easy money
Glenn
Guest
As do I. There is just no reason for anyone to tip the Cats other than based on how Sydney are travelling and considering there is nothing proven as to whether a 6 day break significantly effects anything, tipping a Cats win is pretty much wishful thinking.
TomC
Roar Guru
No, done for the season.
Liam Salter
Roar Guru
You're right. I reckon Geelong should comfortably win tomorrow: however, that's not to say though that the Swans won't put up a fight. Longmire is too good to let his team meekly collapse in a prelim. I think you're right, though: with the brutal finals/injury worries/ridiculously short break. I reckon it'll be a close game until around three quarter time until the Cats dominate the final quarter. The GWS-Dogs clash is easily the more intriguing of the two games this weekend. Head says GWS, hearts say Bulldogs. I'm gonna refrain from tipping this game right now. I like both teams but it's way too hard to tip. Blogging any games this weekend, Tom?
Steele
Guest
Agree with the pope, really confidant Sydney is a better side than Geelong and will prob go on to win the flag.
Pope Paul VII
Guest
Syd by 22. GWS 40.
TomC
Roar Guru
Unfortunately I think tomorrow night's game might be a bit of an anticlimax. The Swans have had two brutal finals, are accumulating injury worries, and have just a six day break to prepare. If the Cats bring something near their best they should run away with the game in the second half. The AFL needs to re-examine the principles around its finals scheduling; in this instance giving the Friday night match to the higher ranked finalist wasn't the best outcome. I'm leaning towards the Dogs in Saturday's game. The thing that most stood out for me in their victory over West Coast was the way they took advantage of their opponents' predictable attacking strategies, and for all the Giants' weapons they are similarly predictable, particularly with Johnson out. If the Bulldogs bring the same discipline and intensity to this final as they have the first two I suspect they'll win again.
On the other hand
Guest
Geelong to win by 5 goals. Giants to hammer the Dogs by 10 goals. Giants v. Cats Grand Final. I do not know who to pick to be honest, probably Geelong due to the occasion overwhelming the falafel brigade.