If the Cronulla players hold their nerve, they will win the NRL grand final.
But if they even only slightly lack the courage of their convictions, Melbourne will capitalise and add to the grand final agony for the Sharks.
Both teams were impressive in winning their preliminary finals. Cronulla looked the strongest side and when you combine that with the fact the Storm have to leave their Melbourne comfort zone, things are aligning nicely for the Sharks.
The Storm have had the luxury of playing their last four games at home at AAMI Park – the final two rounds of the regular season and two finals matches.
They are a great side who are obviously capable of winning anywhere, but there is probably at least a tiny advantage to the Sharks in the fact the Storm have to leave home after being settled down there for five weeks now when you include the week off they had during the finals.
But it won’t matter if the Sharks aren’t prepared to back themselves.
You can’t reasonably expect to beat Melbourne by playing the percentages. You might win sometimes, but the odds are low. You have to be prepared to attack them from a distance, move them around in defence and stop them from being so dominant in the ruck.
The best example of that tactic being used successfully this season was when the Raiders did it in beating the Storm 22-8 in Canberra in Round 23.
But the Raiders didn’t repeat that tactic well enough in their preliminary final against the Storm on Saturday night, and ultimately paid the price.
When Raiders fullback Jack Wighton was correctly sin-binned for a dumb play in delaying the play-the-ball a bit too long midway through the second half, the Storm struck as they know only too well how to do.
They increased the pace of the game and took advantage of the 13 men against 12 situation to score a try and increase their lead from 8-6 to 12-6.
Cameron Smith missed with the conversion attempt, but a few minutes later another dumb Raiders play – this time ill-discipline from hooker Josh Hodgson – led to a Smith penalty goal and a 14-6 lead.
The Storm strangle games from there. The Raiders, to their credit, kept coming and made it uncomfortable for the Storm for the last few minutes by cutting their lead to 14-12, but that was it.
Congratulations to the Storm, they deserved to win in the end because they played the smarter game, but the result could have easily been different had the Raiders pushed the Storm harder after getting in front with the first try of the game.
You have to challenge the Storm from the start of the game and you’ve got to keep challenging them. I don’t mean go crazy and take stupid risks, but you also can’t ease off a bit and wait to see what happens just because it’s close. If you do that, the Storm will get you almost every time.
Of course, you’ve got to have the ammunition to fire at the Storm.
The Sharks have got that, just like the Raiders did – but they mustn’t misfire.
Cronulla refused to die wondering against North Queensland at Allianz Stadium on Friday night. They went at them from the start, got control of the game and never gave it up.
Apart from three late consolation tries to the Cowboys in the last ten minutes, when Cronulla had presumably begun thinking about the grand final, the 32-20 win to the Sharks was a carve-up.
The Sharks can win again on grand final day, as long as they don’t blink. It’s finally their time. Harold Holt, come on down.
Ken
Guest
But NSW media an crowd hate us just as much as maroons ,who cares
Ken
Guest
It's not paranoia ,it's sadly fact here's a storm supporters take on biased media ...describing the storm ..." Wrestle robotic ,mechanical ,boring ,grapple ,salary cap ,cheats ,evil empire " ,here's a few from our side ,how bout a team who's never had any assault ,lewd behaviour or criminal charges against the, , how bout a team who's taken rejects an made them winners. ,how bout a team who has had 2 X 300 gamers playing In a gf ,guys who've had to go to another state an try an succeed ,who had huge injuries this year but fought thru an made the grand final ?I wonder those who've actually played the game wether you think defence when you tackle get up an tackle again is bravery an courage cus my team are the best defence in the league ,flashy teams with no defence wow that's what you all want ?
Stormpooper
Guest
The Storm ain't the Maroons!
Don
Roar Rookie
You are right too Barry. Melbourne are the best in controlling (not always slowing) the ruck. The Sharks try to disrupt the ruck with grapples and then walking off the mark but they are messy with it. It all looks a bit ad hoc. The Storm are clinical.
Brett
Guest
That probably was Stephen Dank's defence too lmao.
mushi
Roar Guru
Give it up. That was a professional foul. If they hadn't given him 10 it would have been one of the worst decisions this year. The problem isn't the refrees it's the one eyed black and white fans.
AGO74
Guest
I think (or hope) Barba will be especially fired up. Not only for reasons you note on previous GF experience but also because no doubt he would have been very happy with win, he was perhaps not as influential as some of the other key Cronulla players like Maloney, Graham, Lewis or even Townsend. Here's hoping he goes off in a good way on sunday night!
mushi
Roar Guru
Whilst I have the Storm as favourites it always puzzles me when we talk about top 4 teams having to focus on what doesn't suit the opposition. I remember a Green Bay Packers play off game where the commentator with their southern drawl pulled out a line I've loved ever since. "You've got to dance with the lady that brung you" In other words if the way you play got you here it must have been half decent. I think melbourne's greatest strength is people worrying about how they should play. Cronulla deserve to be there (much to my chagrin) and they'll sleep easier in the off season, win or lose, if they play their game
Squidward
Roar Rookie
I thought jack wighton definitely deserved to be binned. The real debate is if a professional foul still warrants 10mins, or should be shorter
steveng
Roar Rookie
It will be good for RL and the NRL if the Sharks won, the Storm play a boring game and the Sharks are completely the opposite, simple! But to me and I'm sure most 'neutral fans or fans that barrack for other teams' we want the referees to be fair, let the game be entertaining and for the referees to be neutral and with none of these drastic and game deciding events like sin binning! Is that impossible to ask??? Because in last Saturday's game, when Jack Wighton supposedly held down Marika Koroibete for too long and was sin binned, was a wrong call, and an extreme advantage given to the Storm and only warranted a penalty at the most. That is all I want to see in the GF and I will be happy.
Squidward
Roar Rookie
I still don't even consider a pedtide a drug. It's bloody amino acid protein. It's in the milk I buy for Dicks sake
Agent11
Guest
I think this was similar to Des Haslers pre game speech in 2008. "Score more points"
Agent11
Guest
I didn't think they would beat either of the Raiders or Cowboys but I now think they will beat the Storm and win their first ever premiership. The Raiders should have beaten the Storm comfortably but their inexperience cost them at crucial moments.
Joe
Roar Rookie
I'm not sure the crowd is going to be such a big factor. Maybe for the Sharks. Storm have always played as the outsider and especially in away finals series. Check out the 2012 Grand Final for a one-sided home crowd. I'm not sure the Sharks can get anywhere close to that Bulldogs crowd and the Storm still won that day.
JVGO
Guest
I'd assume everything was a factor. Why blame one factor and discount another? Simply doesn't make sense. I don't know that it was necessarily pure fatigue. They looked pretty fresh in the last ten minutes when the Sharks dropped off the intensity and the crowd started celebrating and singing Up Up....
Alex L
Roar Rookie
Don't think the Cowboys result was anything to do with mindset; it looked to me like they'd given everything they had and just couldn't give any more.
spruce moose
Guest
Refs are famous for pocketing the whistle in grand finals so doubtful Cronulla will get the assistance or justice from the refs.
Con Scortis
Roar Guru
I'm disappointed Rich didn't like my may bury gag.
Angus
Guest
Ah...what Richard means is that he's, like all Melbourne Storm supporters...bloody sick and tired of all Storm haters talking the wrestle by this amazing and efficient team doing what they do best...the same as every other team in the comp does...wrestle...difference is we do it better, win games legally without being penalized and here we are....another Grand Final....suck it up haters!!!!
Angus
Guest
Well said Richard...Storm Haters still hating as they've done all year!!!