The Big Rugby Championship question: Home and away

The Rugby Championship enters its third and final phase for 2016, with South Africa hosting Australia in Pretoria, and Argentina hosting New Zealand in Buenos Aires.

This might be the week in which we get a firmer idea on just well, or how badly the Springboks, Pumas, and Wallabies are tracking. I suspect the All Blacks will be fine.

Will home ground advantage – and Highveld advantage – be enough to spark the ‘Boks back into life? Will a win in Pretoria confirm that the Wallabies are indeed trending up again? Will the familiar feel of home turf and taste of local beef be what Los Pumas need to finish the job they couldn’t against the All Blacks three weeks ago?

They’re not the Big Questions we’ll tackle this week, but they’re all worth thinking about.

The Big Question: The Rugby Championship has claimed some important injuries in some important players in all teams, how do you feel the possible replacements will do and which team will have an edge on this issue? (from Nobes)

Nobes: “I think that the Pumas are the ones that will suffer the most replacing injured players.

“Tomás Lavanini and Juan Martin Hernandez are definitely out. Plus, there is also a watch list that Daniel Hourcade has made of players who he considers might not be able to play on Saturday. Agustin Creevy, Guido Petti, Tomás Cubelli, and Facundo Isa (who became sick and had high fever) are there next to Lucas Noguera Paz who has joined them after leaving training camp with a bag of ice on his left foot. If the objective of the Pumas is to win two games in the TRC, they must play it keeping an eye on the next match in London against the Wallabies. What would you do? Hourcade’s head must be about to explode.

“On the other hand we have the Abs. Their only problem is to know who will replace S Kane and J Kaino. There is also the question if Waisake Naholo will start as a wing.

“SA does not have too many injured players, nevertheless A Coetzee has made some drastic changes and questionable alterations especially in the backline. Nobody knows who will start in what position. Bryan Habana sounds like sure number. Other strong names like Pat Lambie and Willie le Roux have been called and we may see a different Bok from previous games. They have reached a must win situation.

“And – unfortunately for them – they will be facing invigorated Wallabies that will enter the field in high spirit, having had two victories on a row. In addition, David Pocock, a huge and outstanding player, will not be part of the party. Can he be replaced with success? I seriously doubt it. In my opinion it will take two players to do his job. I am not sure who may be right to take his place on that day: a natural no.8 should be a reasonable call but they might also need the additional support that an inspired and shiny Hooper can bring to the scene.”

Digger: “Well, I feel the worst off in dealing with injuries is Argentina. I do not believe the replacements for Lavanini or Hernandez offer nearly the same level of ability and in Hernandez’s case certainly, experience and composure. Argentina lack depth at this level and I think that is showing through the inconsistent performances across this tournament.

“Australia, in my view has somewhat benefited from some injuries, notably Adam Ashley-Cooper which has allowed Reece Hodge to show his wares, but are potentially struggling at second five after Matt Giteau was invalided out and Bernard Foley shifting out one. I think they do have better options at second five; Samu Kerevi for sure however I see that more as a selection issue. Pocock is obviously the major out and is a player that simply can’t be replaced but considering his place and strategies employed by the Wallabies, I expect Sean McMahon would fit in perfectly fine and not impact drastically on the overall performance.

“South Africa, to me has shown that at first five, they have struggled a bit. Already out was both Pat Lambie and Handre Pollard and I do feel Elton Jantjies has not been up to this level, while I would argue that Pieter-Steph du Toit’s inclusion for Lood de Jager was a good thing, as Du Toit is in much better form but to me. South Africa are not picking their best available players and while I am aware that external factors are prevalent, selection issues are more of an issue for this side rather than injuries.

“New Zealand are the best placed side to deal with their injuries and has shown this on several occasions however having both Cane and Kaino out does pose some interesting questions, particularly on defence and at the breakdown where Cane’s work rate and Kaino’s intimidating presence may be missed.

“Playing away in Argentina and South Africa (though Kaino will be back in the republic) only adds to the pressure. I have every confidence in Ardie Savea being up to the task but I do wonder about the power of the side without Kaino around. The experienced Aaron Cruden is also unavailable, and though I have noted a number of concerns around how Barrett will handle a pressure match, I am not concerned. Lima Sopoaga has shown at Ellis Park he is capable at this level but questions remain.”

Brett: The All Blacks are undoubtedly the best equipped, and they’ll be fine regardless of who they play on either side of the scrum. Even with different styles of players, they all know the job that needs to be done, so whether it’s Matt Todd and Ardie Savea, or Liam Squire and Ardie Savea, it won’t really matter.

The Wallabies aren’t necessarily the best equipped, but they are coping well, and I completely agree with Digger’s point about the benefits gained from some injuries already. Depth has always been an issue in Australia, but with eight or nine debutants used in 2016 already, this is being addressed in-season.

And that just leaves the Springboks and Puma, neither of whom are likely to fare well. The Pumas only need one of two injuries to look almost nothing like the side the match before, and the ‘Boks, well… when a guy who hasn’t played in months is suddenly touted as the saviour, then you know they’re getting desperate. And I love Pat Lambie as a player!

Harry: “The All Blacks can cope with injuries. Every provincial team is mandated to have the same style (the style is called ‘proper rugby’) and Shag Hansen has the luxury of knowing that random passers-by can fill in admirably on five minutes notice. If Mealamu falls down, Hore steps up; if he stubs a toe, Dane Coles is there, gaining weight with Codie Taylor, but if they both bust a gut, Ricki Riccitelli is fine, too, with Diggercane completely ready, like a rotund Viking who spies a fully provisioned brewery in the Shetlands.

“The Boklings lost Handre Pollard and Patrick Lambie; and the drop off in quality from their exit-kick-pass-game-clock-management was immense when Coach KK went with the mummy-bandaged Elton Jantjies. South Africa has plenty of depth (even with 343 top class players abroad) but when your third string flyhalf plays this poorly, it’s devastating to the team. But KK had options (Frans Steyn outside Jantjies to help? Ruan Pienaar versus the Irish to settle Jantjies? Play poor Johan Goosen at 10? Don’t drop Willie le Roux? Give a big youngster a run at 10, like Robert du Preez?); he chose and coached them poorly.

“Argentina suffers the most from injuries because there are not three test-quality players at each position available. The depth is the thing for the Argentines to build, but that takes time. The drop off from Creevy or Tomas Lavanini is large.

“Australia has been rather lucky on injuries, no? You can never say David Pocock’s injuries are a surprise. The way he plays, the places he goes; it’s much like me. It’s a miracle he can even walk the earth. He puts his body into wood chippers and plods through chain saws. I suppose this will force Cheika to think of a traditional loose trio.”

Tips

Week 4: You got two right… you got two right… everyone got two right!

Nobes: “New Zealand will win at Velez Sarsfield stadium. In order to make a strong statement against the ABs, one needs the full squad at a 100 per cent and hope for the men in black to have a very ugly day. Do not ask me why but I do not see this happening this time around.

“The other game is a tough call: I will go with the ‘Boks because I cannot remember when was the last time they lost four games on a row. The Wallabies may feel the impact of not having taken a trip in the entire year. And I have heard that Pretoria might not always be a friendly place for visitors.”

Digger: “Despite the away match, I think the ABs will have too much in the tank for Argentina, while in Pretoria…?

“It’s a tough one; it makes sense to go for home ground advantage, but I have serious doubts around this Springbok line up. Selections have been inconsistent and there is a lack of cohesion in their play. Lambie is a quality addition but how much rugby has he had? Will it be another combination in midfield and/or the halves this weekend? I am going to take the plunge and back the Wallabies, based on a more settled line-up, more experience and the fact they have shown steady improvement throughout the tournament as opposed to the Springboks, even in Pretoria. Cue eggs, face, etc etc.”

Brett: Yeah, Wallabies and All Blacks for me this weekend, and without too much anxiety over either pick, really.

The Wallabies – probably for the first time since the Rugby World Cup – feel like they’re in a comfortable, stable place while the Bokke are anything but.

And New Zealand, despite a few injuries, will just roll out another couple of understudies and the show will go on, just like they can and do. Argentina, I think, will play very similarly to how they did in Hamilton; excellent for about 50 minutes, and then run out of puff, which will be further exacerbated by the ABs running over the top of them.

Harry: “The Wallabies have an excellent chance to break their Loftus Versfeld hoodoo. They’ll have about 100 more caps along their ‘spine’ than the fledgling Boklings; almost 300 more caps in the game day squad. Coach Kootchie Koo is even less sure of his best game plan and backline than Coach SS Waratah. But. I will go out on a slender limb and predict a highly controversial win by the home team, led by our lightly-coached, mis-coached, but very fine players. Lambie-led Bokke by 2.

“In Argentina, the black invaders will not wait for 50 minutes to gather steam. New Zealand by 30, and Pumas’ noticeable lack of full squad fitness becomes undeniable.”

The Summary

The verdict
The Crowd prefers the Springboks at home for this weekend, though there wasn’t a whole lot in it from 300 responses received in total.

58.4% South Africa
94.0% New Zealand