After doing some research for my countdown lists I have discovered one ultimate truth. Now I am not now nor will I ever be a fan of the Bulldogs or Manly and it pains me to say this.
The Bulldogs and the Sea Eagles are the most successful teams over the last four decades. Ow that hurt! Now here’s the proof.
Since 1980 the Bulldogs and Manly have made the grand finals more than anybody. They have not necessarily won but their strike rate is better than anybody. Only the Broncos have won more.
The Bulldogs won in 1984, 1985, 1988, 1995 and 2004. They were runners up in 1980, 1986, 1994, 1998, 2012 and 2014. That’s a win percentage of 45 and a strike-rate of 10.5.
Manly won in 1987, 1996, 2008 and 2011. They were runners up in 1982, 1983, 1995, 1997, 2007 and 2013. That’s a win rate of 40 per cent and a strike rate of 10.
Does anybody else see a pattern forming here? I sure do and here it is.
The Bulldogs make at least one grand final a decade and always play in the year with the four (1984, 1994, 2004, 2014). They have a 50 per cent win rate for those years.
Manly’s lucky number is seven (1987, 1997, 2007), for a 33 per cent win rate.
Now Dr Phil says that the best indicator for future behaviour and traits is past behaviour and traits and according to history the Sea Eagles are due to make the grand final next year.
Now call me crazy – if you haven’t already – but that seems like pretty good odds to me!
So does this mean that the Eagles are due to come good again next year or will they continue to live on the brink of total failure.
Cheer up Manly fans, you might just get there again next year. Having said that with the current traits of drought-breaking and maiden premierships, this might throw a spanner in the works.
As we know it has been a time for droughts to be broken, with the Sharks and Cowboys wining their maiden titles in the last two seasons and the Bunnies winning in 2014 – their first title since 1971.
So with the stats in Manly’s favour here is my prediction for the 2017 season. Manly most likely will make the final but will be defeated by either the Titans or the Warriors – justice for 2011.
This is a combination of both patterns. Of course I could be dead wrong about this but I am just throwing it out there. What do you think? can the Eagles come good next year or is this all just a fantastic coincidence?
BigJ
Roar Guru
well one year on and I was dead wrong, but who cares, the Storm v Cowboys grand final of 2017 was the best replacement I could think of.
Kombi Phil
Guest
I hope you're right about Souths in 2017 Steve. In fact, for more statistical fun, it wouldn't matter whether Canterbury or Manly make the GF next year - so long as they meet Souths there. Neither has ever beaten Souths in a GF. Souths have beaten Manly three times - 1951, 1968 and 1970. Souths have beaten Canterbury twice - 1967 and 2014. So maybe we need to beat Canterbury again to make it a neat three each.
Aem
Guest
Both Bennett & Bellamy made finals in their first year of coaching first grade - Bennett in 1987, Bellamy in 2003.
NSWelshman
Guest
lolol.........dream on mate! PS you really should learn how to spell........Barracuda / Here's..............
bigJ
Guest
its all good mate he does not even know the difference between league and rugby ha ha for a so called acccountant he aint that samrt.
JOHNY BULLDOG
Roar Rookie
You tell him BigJ!
BigJ
Roar Guru
for a starters it league not rugby, totally different game, and I'm sure manly would like that something that does not even follow them thinks they are due for a final appearance. if your going to insult my article atleast know what your insulting, you get a life!!!!
Stuart John Pearson Adv Dip Acctg
Guest
I wonder what the Green Rats Rugby team and Manly Rugby Team think of this observation? lol. Dream on and get a life.
steveng
Roar Rookie
JP, as a long time Souths supporter, (50 years +) I’ve seen the good and bad times (more bad than good) even though in the last 49 years they only won 5 premierships. I've got more of a feeling about Souths than Manly in 2017. Don't get your hopes up with this article lol. .
ScottWoodward.me
Roar Guru
Big J Craig Bellamy has always made the finals in his 14 years of coaching, discounting 2010 when they were docked for cap breaches. He will certainly need to have a big year as you get the feeling that Des is chomping to return.
JOHNY BULLDOG
Roar Rookie
Good stuff BigJ,your doing well with these articles-keep em coming mate.
Dutski
Roar Guru
Spotted that one too. It's that time of year!
Squidward
Roar Rookie
I like the picture of Jamie Buhrer as the preview pic
JP
Guest
As a long time Manly supporter, (50 years) I've seen the good and bad times. My gut feeling for 2017 is that we are not quite there yet, I think a couple of quality backs and forwards would make all the difference. Having said that the game has changed dramatically whereby a team at the top or bottom in 2016 can be premiers or wooden spooners within a couple of seasons. Manly is a successful club, even in the bad times, statisitics don't lie, 8 premierships from 16 GF's in 49 years is by far and away the best "GF" strike rate of any club in the premiership. Love or loath Manly one thing is certain, we will continue to make GF's and win premierships.
bearfax
Guest
Hey you're quite right BigJ. I've done a careful check and I've found nether Bennett nor Bellamy won anything in the 60's. At least we know they aren't omnipotent
BigJ
Roar Guru
Scott there was a time were Bellamy and Bennett never made it to the finals, anything is possible. I am not saying that they are definetly make just that the stats are in their favour.
bearfax
Guest
Your're right. A result more like Manly 28 Canberra 8 would be far more satisfactory. Do it for Cliffy
MAX
Guest
Dan Weidler has just filed article at SMH.
MAX
Guest
Offsider, I don't know. Sounds like an 'explain away line' to counter the "are you satisfied with Des's performance and the results to date" or "has Des failed to deliver to your expectations"
offsider
Guest
Max,Castle also said Des has the full confidence of the board. You know what that means.