The single best thing that can be said about the Wallabies in 2016 is that its best players have, by and large, been its young guns and rookies.
Young Guns
Adam Coleman and Samu Kerevi have become the Wallabies’ most important forward and back. They were sorely missed against Ireland.
Dane Haylett-Petty’s improvement has been phenomenal and he should now be playing fullback for the Wallabies, not only because Isreal Folau is better suited to the wing, but because Haylett-Petty is a better 15 than the 2016 version of Folau.
Tolu Latu may well be the Wallabies’ first-choice hooker in 2017. Andrew Ready is another very good possibility.
Reece Hodge has mixed in some incredible running and kicking with awkward positioning and mental snaps. He is a very young man, however, and these should be cleared up in the Super Rugby season.
Sean McMahon continues to improve and Rory Arnold, Alan Ala’alatoa and Lopeti Timani have done their jobs extremely competently, if not spectacularly.
Kyle Godwin did an excellent job on debut, and will hopefully be given more opportunities to develop at the Brumbies than Western Force.
Luke Morahan looked very good against France.
Sefa Naivalu’s speed means he’s able to both score tries and make tackles that wingers in Australia have failed to be able to do for many years.
2. Depth
Leading on from the rise of the young guns, the Wallabies have – extremely haphazardly – found themselves with significant depth in many positions that they’ve traditionally struggled.
At number 7 there is David Pocock (soon to be lost), Michael Hooper, Sean McMahon and Ben McCalman.
In the centres the Wallabies enjoy Kerevi, Kurtley Beale, Tevita Kuridrani, Hodge, Rob Horne and Folau.
The Wallabies’ first choice locks in the 2015 Rugby World Cup are now the second string option after Coleman and Arnold.
Ready and Latu are excellent hooking options.
In terms of outside backs Folau, Haylett-Petty, Morahan, Beale and Naivalu mean the Wallabies are well covered.
While there are still issues in propping, number 6, number 8, number 9 and number 10, things are moving in the right direction. Who knows, perhaps Godwin will be the future 10?
3. Backline attacking ability
Despite the issues of the Wallabies’ forward-pack, the backline has shown great improvement throughout 2016.
Although basic skills errors are still apparent and there is a lack of cohesiveness in attack, the Wallabies’ backline can be extremely dangerous due to the potent threats of Haylett-Petty, Kuridrani, Naivalu, Will Genia, Folau and of course Kerevi.
Despite the forwards’ struggles against Ireland, our backs kept us in the game until it was spoiled by a certain forward.
Having such a dangerous backline means the Wallabies will win games they possibly do not deserve to, such as against France.
1. Lack of strategy
The Wallabies have followed no consistent strategy in 2016.
Against England, Michael Cheika was determined to play “the Australian way”, which meant running the ball at all times.
Unfortunately, somewhat unsurprisingly, running the ball from your own try-line can lead to disastrous results against a team with good defence, especially when they possess an ace goal-kicker and the Wallabies have poor discipline.
The 3-0 thrashing by England led to a change in strategy.
Instead, Foley, Genia and Mick Byrnes told us in the lead-up to Bledisloe 1 that the Wallabies would kick more.
It did not work.
Foley seemed to have the uncanny ability to always find the hands of the player attempting to charge his kicks down, or not to kick it out when he attempted exits, leading to tries scored by the other team on counter.
Since then, the Wallabies have looked confused, unsure whether to play a game with tactical kicking, or one of pure running at all times.
Lack of direction is not a recipe for success.
2. Forwards
The front-row have been average (at best), unfit and largely invisible.
When Coleman is playing, the locks are fixed. Without him, the second-row lacks any form of physical imposition or intimidation or power.
The back-row has been a farce. Any team that feels the need to consistently field Dean Mumm in the starting line-up is one that is going to struggle. While the back-row could easily be fixed by smarter selections, Cheika has thus far refused to do so.
With the exception of the matches against Wales and perhaps South Africa, the Wallabies’ pack has been dominated in 2016.
Unless things change in 2017 the forwards could really, really hamper the Wallabies’ results, especially with the loss of Pocock.
3. Discipline
The absolute worst aspect of the 2016 Wallabies has been the team’s discipline. I cannot remember a team that managed to commit so many more penalties than its opponents week-in and week-out. I actually find it amazing that the Wallabies have even remained competitive in matches given the lopsided penalty counts against them.
I hope this can be turned around in 2016, but I have to wonder if it stems somewhat from Cheika’s coaching philosophy, as Waratahs are generally the team’s worst offenders, aside from Pocock.
Unless this is addressed the team will never win consistently.
1. Selections
It would be possible to write a PhD thesis on Cheika’s selections and still find no rhyme or reason. The most positive thing can be said is that Cheika eventually succeeded in creating some depth, even though this was forced on him by injuries to Dad’s Army (Adam Ashley-Cooper, Matt Giteau, Rob Horne, Mumm etc).
Unfortunately, Cheika’s selection process has given the perception of bias, as he has been willing to drop non-favourites who have been average but by no means terrible (Kuridrani, Rob Simmons, Scott Fardy to name a few) while retaining many sub-par favourites (Stephen Moore, Foley, Mumm and Will Skelton).
Hopefully Cheika thinks hard on where 2016 went wrong and comes back with a new approach, selecting the best players in their correct positions, and favouring young guys over the oldies.
2. Exits
There is nothing quite so ugly as Cheika’s team trying to execute a straightforward exit.
It typically involves either the team running the ball from their own 22, which sometimes has fantastic results, but more often leads to near-catastrophic errors (both of which occurred against Ireland).
When Foley attempts an exit I screw my eyes shut in trepidation. The kick rarely goes 20 metres and often fails to find touch regardless. The number of counter-attacking tries scored against the Wallabies off exit attempts by Foley must be in double digits.
One has to ask why Haylett-Petty, with his huge and accurate boot, has not taken up the kicking duties?
The problem was somewhat fixed with Quade Cooper at 10, but Cooper has been dropped. If Foley is retained at 10 then Haylett-Petty, Genia or Hodge must take over kicking.
3. Set-piece
Another year, another problem with the Wallabies’ scrum. It seemed these problems were fixed in 2016, but that is frankly not the case.
Nothing can be said except that this has to be fixed, and there has to be better options than James Slipper and Tom Robertson.
The line-out has been even more embarrassing. A traditional area of strength has become a weakness due to the lack of enough good second-row targets.
At the end of the day the Wallabies are probably in a better place today than they were in June. That said, significant questions over Cheika’s selection, strategic and tactical abilities have been raised in 2016. Hopefully the coach can overcome these and improve things in 2017.
Richard Patterson
Roar Rookie
An interesting assessment Fionn. In looking back on a very forgettable year for Australian rugby, what strikes me the most is this report could have been overlaid at 3 or 4 different points of this 2016 season. What was different in the 15th test match in December to the 1st test match in June? Recall in Brisbane the Wallabies got out to a fast start, ill-discipline bought England back into the match, poor composure under pressure gifted tries to England and ineffective conditioning and a weak bench cost the Wallabies dearly in the last 20 minutes. The Bledisloe Cup games were a mirror image, ditto the loss in Pretoria to a dreadful Springbok side. I saw a Wallaby side that made improvements in attack on the European tour - simply because it was appalling against the All Blacks as 2 tries in 3 test matches would illustrate. Most costly was a Wallaby side that either could not, or refused to make the necessary adjustments to better take the referee out of the contest. Either Michael Cheika and Stephen Moore were wrong or Romain Poite (2x), Jaco Peyper (2x), Nigel Owens (2x), Craig Joubert, Wayne Barnes and Jerome Garces and a whole host of assistants and TMO's were wrong in the Wallabies 9 losses this year. Rightly or wrongly, Cheika and the Wallabies maintained an abrasive, no backwards step attitude with opposition sides through the season. A similar attitude with officials was naive and expensive. Only in 2017 will we see whether those lessons have been learnt. I would not feel optimistic.
Xiedazhou
Guest
Thanks for "refining" the definition of courage to suit your position. I see. Its not courage that Cooper lacks, but a particular kind of courage that Foley has and Cooper lacks because you say so. And my word, didn't Foley ignite the back-line with his play? Oh yes sir, he did indeed, and lead us to an overwhelming victory over an outclassed Scots team! He played flat and took it to the line and we just carved up those Scots! Our back-line general had us on song.They didn't have a chance due to the courage and brilliance of Bernard. in much the same way as his brilliance led us to such stunning performances against England and in Bledisloe 1. Go Bernard, you da man! And yes, I can see how you think Foleys performances at 10 were better than Coopers, on balance. That would be on the balance where Foley was that poor he was dropped from 10 (but kept at 12), was outplayed by Cooper in each of the games they played side by side, and yet was then reinstated to 10? I suspect you also have a specific definition of balance in mind? Perhaps one that has little to do with balance at all?
In Brief
Guest
The disciplines been fine, they've been subject to a number of very soft refereeing decisions.
piru
Guest
I'm easy to spot mate, Centre - number 64. I'll keep an eye out Yeah who would have thought!
Dingleberry Hufflethwaite III
Roar Rookie
Your boxing ring analogy is mindless. We're talking about courage on the rugby field. Foley stayed flat in the face of extreme rush defenses smashing him back on his butt regularly. Cooper's entire test history shows that once the forwards are going backwards, he retreats 10 - 15m back from the gain line. And yes. On balance, Foley's performances this year have been better as the starting 10 than Cooper's.
OJP
Guest
Piru, I was still running around with the Jets back in 06 but that was the final season for me.... Giants in mid 90's, then off to Sydney, then back to the Jets in 02. We were down to 13 blokes total by the end of the season and I was already in my mid 30's (at the time) and playing both ways (I played mainly OLB on D, some DE ) was too much for my body; I just didnt recover quickly enough after the games :( I'm still in Perth and stay in touch with lots of the Jets / Giants boys and do sneak along to watch from time to time. Spot on about the youth movement from the Jets and it was very necessary ! I'll try and come along to the next Jets vs Broncos game and see if I can work out who you are.... maybe even say g'day! So, re Skelton, I concur; has the physical tools for OL but it would be a very hard transition to make and I was a bit flippant in my initial comment. One final observation; you are from Canterbury, I'm from Otago, here we are playing American Football in Australia. Not what I imagined as a young bloke! cheers
piru
Guest
OJP I think I probably just missed you, started in 06 in an agreement with a yank mate who had played rugby at my behest. I've only ever played for the Broncos, seems as a Cantabrian the red and black attracts me! Giants become the Blitz the same year I started, the Jets are still there. They've had a rough few years but have concentrated hard on their junior program to good effect and are now a side to be taken seriously (beat us on Sat :( ) DL is a bit of a mystery I think. You CAN be the bloke who just smashes the one in front of you, but to be a great D Lineman is much tougher. I still think OL is the hardest job, you've just got so much to be aware of; the playcall, the defensive alignment, what the guys around you are doing, and on top of it all you've got to be massively aggressive and violent, but not so aggressive that you lose control, stuff up your technique or miss your block. Tough gig but I wouldn't trade. Not fast enough to play anywhere else to start with. To bring the topic back around, Skelton is a prototypical offensive tackle with his height and reach, but there are so few skills that translate from rugby to offensive line that I suspect it would be a bridge too far. He might be better off at tight end? let me know when you're back in Perth and I'll tell you where the games are!
Perthstayer
Roar Rookie
Under the heading Depth I misunderstood this line to suggest 2 ex 1st choice 2nd rows is equal to decent subs: "The Wallabies’ first choice locks in the 2015 Rugby World Cup are now the second string option after Coleman and Arnold." But, you are right that the WB's are improved overall, and with more injuries the curve may keep rising as new guys get a chance to shine :-)
Xiedazhou
Guest
Your call that you'd take Pattie Howard or even Mitchell Palm before Cooper, is, as you so deftly put it, hilarious in its extremism, if it wasn't so sad. As for your questioning of Cooper's courage, I've yet to see Bernard Foley step into the ring. The only reason that Foley has the gig over Cooper, is that Cheika prefers him, and gives him far more leeway with regards to performance than he gave Cooper. Can you, in all honesty, say that at the time that Cooper was dropped for Foley, that Foley's performances in the Tests this year were better than Cooper's, and that if one of them was to be dropped on form it had to be Cooper?
Terry
Guest
Paddy Ryan ??? HAHAHAHAHAHA
Terry
Guest
Brett, Foley is a spud and has been a liability all year. Red Kev is correct, you just have to take off your baby blue tinted sunglasses to see the facts mate ..
woodsie
Guest
Yeah he was a fantastic find this year. I watched some of his u/20 game highlights. I reckon that Jack McGregor will be a good catch as well. I think you will find the Rebels have been doing what ARU should have been doing this last 5 years. Supporting the grass roots rugby in Vic, providing training and support to schools, identifying young talent and creating a positive environment for them. Cant wait fo rthe 2017 season. I'm already sick of cricket!
Carlos the Argie
Roar Guru
Stade Français. Stade de France is the stadium....
soapit
Roar Guru
yep. its only a game anyway. and we could accelerate.
Oblonsky‘s Other Pun
Roar Guru
Oh yes, you're completely right. There is a way of being anti-establishment and passionate without seeming sullen and denigrating the efforts of opposing teams by constantly blaming the referee. Just once I would Cheika to 100% ignore the referee in public and instead take up his issues privately. It really takes away from the efforts of the other team.
Carlos the Argie
Roar Guru
Finn, People may disagree with you or agree on various issues. You stuck your neck out and you made your case. Good for you. I would suggest that you add among the "Ugly" the Cheika rants at half time from June as seen on the TV. Or his press conferences whining at refs.
Carlos the Argie
Roar Guru
Unless it is a twit from the Donald....
Oblonsky‘s Other Pun
Roar Guru
I honk I basically agree everywhere there... To me Folau is a winger that should 'be given a license to roam', but not a fullback. I'm sick of us being unable to kick the ball, so pick DHP or Morahan there. Folau also looks frustrated at his inability to find tn try line. I think I actually do agree on everything except I prefer Cooper ? - that said, it's pretty sad when Australia two first choice 10s have such glaring weaknesses. Shame about Lealiifano.. Loose head prop is also a problem.
OJP
Guest
Hi Piru perhaps I was a bit hasty on that call..... I'll concede that RB and WR have it easier (I was RB) - I think O Line is tricky to learn particularly because of the blocking techniques used (was this part of your thinking ?) but D line not so much.... QB clearly the hardest for me; the throwing the ball is the easiest part of that job. I'm from Perth Piru; as I believe you are... who did you / do you play for ? I turned out for the Hyde Park Giants and later for the Claremont Jets (with stints at Sutherland Seahawks and Manly Redbacks thrown in for good measure)... if you played in Perth in the mid 90's then we almost certainly played against each other ! cheers OJP
Blackmark
Roar Rookie
Genia plays for Stade De France. The best players play for the Wallabies. Phipps plays when they can't!