Only a few optimists would see Australia’s tour of India in February and March as a likely series win.
History and recent sub continent form is against them, and with a combined 16 Tests in Indian experience among the entire squad, winning a Test will be difficult – let alone a series.
However, like every series, there will be some winners and losers. Batsmen first.
There has been a lot of talk about needing to bat a lot of overs to compete in this series. I think Steve Smith, Peter Handscomb and Shaun Marsh will be the winners. I’d have the older Marsh batting 6 in this team, as they need to bat deep.
Steve Smith’s limited Test experience in India has been modest, with his average of 40 well down on his Test average of a tick over 60. However he can bat long, plays spin well and his captaincy has improved him overall as a cricketer.
Handscomb is only new to the Test team but he is arguably one of the best Australian players of spin bowling and, for that, I’d pick him as one of the winners.
While Shaun Marsh hasn’t played Test cricket in India, his form on spinning wickets should see him bat well. I think he should bat at six as we don’t have an allrounder good enough to be picked for his batting and because I think two of our top three may be fragile.
Which brings me to our vice captain, David Warner. Warner’s played four Tests in India for an average of 24. While he has to play all the Tests and has the ability to win Tests almost on his own for Australia (like he did in Sydney), I think he will struggle on the Indian decks and could be one to miss out on runs.
I’m a massive fan of Usman Khawaja, but his sub continent record is mediocre at best and its hard to see him having a great tour against the sub continent’s best team.
Matt Renshaw is the wild card. Matt has been compared already to his left handed Queenslander namesake. Matt Hayden had slightly more international experience but was nowhere near assured his spot when Australia toured India in 2001.
Three Tests later and at an average of close to 110, he was cemented in the team for years to come. It is now legendary that Hayden spent countless hours practising his sweep shot prior to the tour and its not hard to imagine Renshaw doing something similar.
From a wicketkeeping angle, Matthew Wade has the duties for the series but his performance will determine whether he is keeping against England later this year at the start of the Ashes. Although his recent Test batting form has been disappointing, I think he’s fairly safe.
I don’t see Mitchell Marsh, Ashton Agar or Glenn Maxwell getting a Test. I could well be wrong, especially if selectors need a fifth bowling option, but I don’t see any of these allrounders doing enough with the bat to justify selection. Steve Smith probably needs to get ten overs out of himself and David Warner.
Of the bowlers, I’m tipping Mitchell Starc and Josh Hazlewood to be the winners. Both have the ability to swing the ball, both with the new ball and later with reverse swing. Indian players are less comfortable with quick bowlers than they are with spinners and I think these two, along with Jackson Bird if he plays, will excel.
Shane Warne had an average of 43 in India so even the best spinners find it tough. Unfortunately, you can’t place Nathan Lyon and Steve O’Keefe in the same bracket as Warnie and they will struggle for wickets.
However, if they can hold down an end for a long spell and be economical, they can do a job for Australia with the quicks looking to take the majority of wickets at the other end.
Mitchell Swepson is the surprise pick of the tour squad and he certainly looks like he may have a long career for Australia as he does have the ability to pick up wickets. Having said that, I think picking him for a Test on this tour would still be a mistake.
I still remember watching Sachin Tendulkar and Ravi Shastri taking Shane Warne apart at the SCG in 1992 and it was only the selectors’ faith and Warne’s self belief that saw him bounce back and become the best leg spinner of all time.
I think this squad is probably the best we have available at the moment and the new kids within the team have certainly made their mark. Whatever happens in India, the selectors need to stick with this team for the long haul.
Rob
Guest
Yes, sorry John. He talk a lot of sense IMO.
John Erichsen
Roar Guru
*Stuart Clark*
rtp
Guest
He got out trying to force the pace because you can't just offer up a score of 200 in modern day ODIs and expect to win. I suppose you will call yesterday's innings a failure too because he got out to a silly shot on the last ball of the innings! Maxwell is a right hander who does not look like a deer in headlights playing spin in sub-continental conditions plus he can bowl handy change overs and is one of the world's best fielders. There are some who never once made tough runs (Burns, Marsh (who couldn't make runs easy or tough)) who got a lot more chances than Maxwell ever had.
Rob
Guest
He got himself out? Do you not watch Smith walking across his stumps driving and nicking the first ball almost 2" wide of off? Smith hits 60 (100 balls) and then tries to hack a ball pitched up from 2" wide of off to cow corner. They lost when Smith scored 60(100) and won when Maxwell got 60 (56). Did you watch Smith's dismissal in Sri Lanka which turned the game for a Sri Lankan win? It was similar to what happened against SA in Perth. Maxwell is potentially a once in a generation bat. You must hate him out scoring your golden haired children from NSW. LOL Stuart Clarke said Maxwell would be in any team he was picking. He also said Head has a tendency to hit the ball across the line and finds it hard to drive with the full face of the bat due to his back lift. He followed it up saying Head likes to hit cow corner but would struggle if the ball stays down or moves away of the pitch. Which he does. But you think he would go well in India? I won't defend Wade.
Pope Paul VII
Guest
played 2 in 2011, his second and third tests batting at 6 I think. Although his scores were low in the first of these, so too were innings scores. His contribution was handy in context. In the second of these Marsh debuted at no.3 getting a great 100. In a rain affected match the aussies declared when he was 13 not out. So he had one go as a rookie and one as a scapegoat.
Cadfael
Roar Guru
Two lucky players to make the squad for India are Wade and Maxwel. If Wade keeps like he has so far this summer, we are in trouble. We can't afford to give batsmen like Kholi, Pujara, Ashwin, etc any chances.I can't work out how Maxwelll even made the team. In the two ODIs he played, he got himself out both times with poor shots. He's not bowling, he has no form. If he was picked on potential others like Head, Cartwright and Patterson would have been better choices.
Dreadly
Guest
Been at least 4 tests since India has been able to bowl Australia out twice.
Chris Love
Roar Guru
When did Uzzielau 4 tests against Sri-Lanka?
bearfax
Guest
The problem with assessing the potential of players for the Indian tour is that there is so little evidence to work from. Looking at players being mentioned to succeed and fail is tricky if your information lacks substantive evidence. Lets start with Khawaja and Handscomb. One considered good with spin the other not so. But based on what? In fact Khawaja is very good against spin now as demonstrated by his performances in Australian conditions. Where he struggled was not against spin alone, but spin on foreign grounds. That's a totally different issue and if one looks at most batsmen who first go to the sub continent to play tests, they struggle big time, until they adapt. Khawaja has had some poor tests against Sri Lanka in Sri Lanka (four in total). Note though that he has never played a test against Pakistan or India on their home grounds, which may be different again. Of Handscomb, he is good against spin in Australia. But he has never faced test cricket on the sub continent grounds, which as I suggested is a different issue, so assessing him a good player of spin in the sub continent has no basis in fact The question of spin bowlers in India is another issue that needs close scrutiny. Suggestions that because Warne failed in India , that O'Keefe will, is again based on lack of evidence. It seems O'Keefe has been for years under rated, yet he has better first class bowling averages than any other spin bowler in the country at the moment by far, with only Swepson looking to challenge, and better first class averageseven than Warne and Benaud. The thing is we dont know how good this bowler is. India has the wood on us in India. They have an outstanding side, especially for sub continent conditions. They will probably win every test. But lets not suggest we are defeated before we've played. This side may surprise us and India both
Rob JM
Guest
I think Starc, Hazlewood, Lyon and Okeef are by far our best chance of taking wickets. Its a choice between S Marsh and Maxwell at 6 in the first test and I expect both of them to get plenty of tests by the end (unless our batsmen don't struggle). If one of the bowlers struggles and Maxwell is playing then you could bring in a bowling allrounder, most likely Mitch Marsh at 8 to strengthen the batting, but maybe agar too. Swepson might get a chance once the series is down the drain. Bird is least likely to be picked unless the Indians throw up a weird pitch or someone gets injured. I agree with your batting summation, Renshaw is the real wildcard, if he miraculously has a good series then we might be competitive, most likely though is that we are only competive in a couple of games, giving our bowlers only two chances to win a test. Most likely result for me is a 3 - 1 win to india, plus or minus 1.
Andrew Pengelly
Guest
Much is made of Warnies demolition in Sydney that year, and I was a witness. What is not mentioned is that Warne should have had Shastri out for a moderate score, if Mark Waugh (of all people) hadn't dropped a sitter. It could have been a very different story.