Four pesky problems to prevent a GWS Giants premiership

If you’ve taken a gander at two or three 2017 AFL predictions, or fifty, you’ll have seen a common theme this year – GWS, GWS and GWS. They are almost universally tipped to win the flag, but maybe we shouldn’t get too far ahead of ourselves.

The case in favour of the Giants is pretty simple. Let’s take a look at their likely best 22 in 2017.

GWS Giants 2017 best 22
B: Nathan Wilson, Phil Davis, Nick Haynes
HB: Heath Shaw, Adam Tomlinson, Zac Williams
C: Ryan Griffen, Stephen Coniglio, Tom Scully
HF: Brett Deledio, Jeremy Cameron, Toby Greene
F: Steve Johnson, Jonathan Patton, Devon Smith
Fol: Shane Mumford, Callan Ward, Dylan Shiel
Int: Lachie Whitfield, Josh Kelly, Rory Lobb, Jacob Hopper

Geez, that’s strong. I for one welcome our new Giant overlords. They’ve taken a side that was so impressive last year and added yet another layer of class and veteran experience in Brett Deledio.

Lachie Whitfield will miss the start of the year due to suspension, but this side has so much talent you’ll barely notice an absent No.1 pick.

The only area where the Giants look a little thin is in terms of their tall backs – I’ve picked Davis, Tomlinson and Haynes as the three talls here but it’s probably the one area of the ground that doesn’t pick itself.

Tim Mohr and Aidan Corr are the two who would be the most likely call-ups should the Giants find themselves in need, but those two have both had regular injury issues and the Giants might find themselves in a pickle if they’re not available.

That brings us to a larger issue that is the first of my potential problems for the Giants…

They lack depth
Outside of the best 22 listed above, the Giants have only eleven more players who have played AFL football. Eight of those players have played less than 50 games, four of them have played less than ten, and three of them have never played a game in orange and charcoal.

Matthew De Boer and Tendai Mzungu, picked up after being delisted from Fremantle last year, are the experienced heads who will probably be GWS’ first port of call when they need depth. One of them may well debut Round 1, keeping Lachie Whitfield’s place on the team sheet warm.

They’re experienced, hardened AFL players but there’s a reason Fremantle gave them the chop and they also have never played a match alongside any of their new teammates, so relying on them as plug-and-play depth might be a little too hopeful.

Adam Kennedy and Matthew Buntine better fit the definition of depth for GWS – Kennedy is versatile enough to help out in many areas, Buntine more specialised as a defender but can play on a few different types. They’ve played a little over 100 games for the Giants combined. Mohr and Corr, mentioned previously, have some experience too, but lack durability.

Beyond that, the Giants really struggle for experienced depth – Dawson Simpson and Tom Downie are there as ruck options, Sam Reid and Matthew Kennedy as medium forwards, and Harrison Himmelberg as a tall who could feature at either end. After them, GWS are relying on the untested.

Why so little depth? Over the past few years the 17 other clubs have been more than willing to feed on the Giants’ scraps, and now so much of the fringe of their list has departed for more opportunity. It’s a big thumbs up for their recruiting and development but it could be problematic for 2017.

Say the Giants have four to five long-term injuries, they’ll be really scraping the barrel in terms of their replacement options. The players they call upon in that scenario may not be ready to perform at the level required for premiership success.

They have become the hunted
The No.1 item on the to-do list for tactical analysts throughout the AFL this off-season would have been to work out how to stop the Giants.

They have speed across the park and they have excellent skills. Those are two things that are hard to combat. However, despite their press conference gaffes, AFL coaches are a smart bunch and they will find a way to hinder GWS’ style of play.

Consider Port Adelaide, who in 2014 came within a kick of a grand final, much as the Giants did last year. In the years since, they have been tactically found out and struggled to find a new way to win – I doubt GWS could suffer so dramatic a drop, but make no mistake, they are being targetted just as the Power were.

They rely on their veterans
Much is often made of the Giants’ domination of the draft since their inception and the amount of young talent that they have been able to pick up and develop. That’s fair enough – there has been a lot of it – but for mine what made them great in 2016 was the efforts of the mature talent they’ve recruited along the way.

Shane Mumford and Heath Shaw are the poster boys here – both are Kevin Sheedy Medal winners, and Shaw has won two All-Australian guernseys as a Giant. They are, arguably, the two most important players in the side. Historically and statistically, the Giants really struggle without Mumford in particular.

The reason we know that is because we have plenty of data on what happens when Mumford misses, because he does miss a lot. He played 23 games last year, far and away a career high, but in every other season of his life he has missed at least three games and usually more.

What are the odds that Mumford plays another full or near-full season? History says pretty low. Shaw is durable, but 31 – he’s in awesome form, but nothing can be taken for granted once you hit three-oh. Ryan Griffen, Steve Johnson and Brett Deledio are no spring chickens either.

Can anyone fill Mumford and Shaw’s game-breaking roles if they become unavailable, or their form drops off dramatically? That’s a question the Giants will hope they don’t have to answer in 2017.

Progress isn’t always linear
There’s no doubt in my mind the Giants are on the rise and destined for success. No-one out there would be so bold as to argue against that. But teams don’t just improve incrementally year after year – improvement tends to come in spurts, and sometimes there’s a slide backwards in between.

Take, for example, West Coast – they had an awesome 2015, coming from nowhere to be one of the best sides in the comp and runners-up for the year. In 2016 they had arguably more talent available on their list than the year prior, yet they fell back to the pack and disappointed their fans. Why?

Have one more look at that GWS best 22 for me. How many players there played the best season of their careers last year? By my count, about two-thirds of the team were as good or better in 2016 than they have ever been before.

A lot of Eagles had career-best 2015 seasons, but then were just kind of average in 2016. I’m talking guys like Josh Hill, or Elliot Yeo, or Sharrod Wellingham – and they’re not the only examples. As a different example, Jake Stringer’s 2015 to 2016 was a textbook break-out-then-slide-back.

Improvement doesn’t always happen at a constant rate; progress isn’t always linear. Sometimes, seemingly for no reason at all to the casual observer, players just can’t back up the great form they showed a year ago. The Giants might not be immune.

Well, there you have it – four potential roadblocks I can see in the way of a GWS premiership in 2017.

Maybe I’m just clutching at straws, but surprises of one kind or another lie in wait for us this year, I know that much for sure. That’s the great thing about footy.

Still, if I’m not tipping the Giants, you may ask, who is my flag fancy in 2017?

All will be revealed next week.