Here we are again. Another NRL season and another awful Newcastle season looms. After achieving the honour of winning back-to-back wooden spoons in 2016, the Knights had to change, and change they did.
They cut a bunch of useless, injury prone and overpaid players and replaced them with other players who, while cheaper, are probably only slight improvements.
But then again, if your NRL side is about as solid as an ice-cream that was left outside for two hours in the middle of January, then any change is positive.
The one pleasing aspect about Newcastle’s 2016 is that it is hard to do worse this year. They won a single game against the Tigers because Korbin Sims kicked a second ball to cause a distraction.
Not only will it be hard for the Knights to disappoint, it will be easy for them to overachieve since coming second last would be considered an overachievement for this ragtag group of youngsters.
Strengths
I really am racking my brain to think of strengths for this side, but I am struggling as much as Newcastle will this year. However, the starting second row of Jamie Buhrer, Mitch Barnett and Sione Mata’utia has potential.
Buhrer is the sort of quality player that Newcastle needed, while Barnett has a ton of promise and Mata’utia was pretty decent in the second row last year. In the off-season, he has buffed up to a ridiculous level.
What else? Well, Nathan Ross and Dane Gagai are both decent players and Daniel Levi will develop into an amazing dummy-half at some stage.
But that is it for strengths.
Weaknesses
There is no one that stands out in this side. It is just a bunch of middling to decent footballers, with no one amazing enough to really win them games.
If Newcastle is by two points with a minute to go, who can really step up? Rookie Brock Lamb? Walking injury Trent Hodkinson? Or Gagai, who really is only at fullback for a lack of better options?
Furthermore to the Knights’ problems, Gagai is the only one on the list to have played at least 100 games for Newcastle. Everyone else in this side is either from another club or inexperienced.
This means that it will be hard for this side to really gel since they haven’t played together much.
Also, Newcastle’s props suck harder than a turbo-charged vacuum cleaner. They are either incredibly young guys like Josh King or average players like Josh Starling. It just isn’t a good side.
There is no one in this spine who can break a game open like your Thurstons and your Maloneys. And yes, while Newcastle did sign Kalyn Ponga who has this kind of spark, he is still a whole season away.
Summary
No one should be shocked that I believe Newcastle will come last this year. I challenge anyone that believes they won’t be last to tell me why.
Before you say ‘the Titans last year made the eight when everyone thought they would come last’, the only reason they didn’t come last was because the stars aligned and everything went perfectly for them.
This won’t happen again.
Yet, Newcastle will improve in 2017, so maybe in 2018 they can actually aim for a position higher than the bottom four.
But for now, it looks like a third spoon in a row can be added to that trophy cabinet.
2016 finish: 16th
Predicted 2017 finish: 16th
Transfers
Gains: Jamie Buhrer, Rory Kostjasyn, Ken Sio, Josh Starling, Jacob Gagan, Joe Wardle and Anthony Tupou.
Losses: Jeremy Smith, James McManus, Kade Snowden, Robbie Rochow, Akuila Uate, Jake Mamo, and Korbin Sims. Additionally, Jarrod Mullen is currently serving a provisional suspension.
Full-strength team
1. Dane Gagai
2. Ken Sio
3. Nathan Ross
4. Pat Mata’utia
5. Chanel Mata’utia
6. Brock Lamb
7. Trent Hodkinson
8. Daniel Saifiti
9. Daniel Levi
10. Sam Mataora
11. Mitch Barnett
12. Sione Mata’utia
13. Jamie Buhrer
14. Rory Kostjasyn
15. Jacob Saifiti
16. Josh Starling
17. Josh King
Mushi
Guest
"No one should be shocked that I believe Newcastle will come last this year. I challenge anyone that believes they won’t be last to tell me why." Because we generally aren't very good at predicting the future :) Espcially, as you say, given the lack of knowledge of how their list will play together. Normally having very little evidence to be optimsitic is a bad thing but hey not knowing if Newcastle are going to be like Newcastle can only be a ray of sunshine and hope right! disclsimer the main reason why other teams feel comfortable about missing the spoon is that Newie is the magical wishing fairy of spoon avoidance for the other 15 clubs
Keith Sheldon
Roar Guru
In a team that doesn't have a standout forward, Starling is adding nothing. And as a Manly fan I have watched him a lot and have never been very impressed with him.
Joe
Roar Rookie
I like the team. I think its better than last year. All the youngsters have had a year under their belt as well as the coach. I think they will win more games this season.
Kilgore Trout
Roar Rookie
Brown has had a season to get to know all his players . At least this year he will have made his decisions as to who is best suited to play where and can start the season with a plan . Being able to move on without their salary cap tied up in big names sitting on the sidelines is huge step in the right direction . It's been a long time since they got any value out of the players leaving or retiring . They might still finish 16th but I expect them to improve throughout this season and to win plenty of games along the way .
Magnus M. Østergaard
Roar Guru
Starling isn't all that bad. 2016 averaged 80m/game playing off the bench in all but 4 of his 20 games. Year on year averages about 80-90 metres anyway. He isnt any masive stand out but hes a solid addition at not too much money and a great experienced addition to the team.
Keith Sheldon
Roar Guru
Oh I think their young players all have plenty of potential, but as I said they aren't ready yet. The only players in their squad I am down on are proven duds like Starling and overpaid Hodkinson. Probably should have stressed that they will do a lot better for the 2018 season but it still looks bleak for them in 2017.
jeff dustby
Guest
it is all mine
Arnold Krewanty
Guest
Well Keith, whilst your prediction that the Knights will get the spoon is likely spot on, your pessimistic & disrespectful analysis of the quality of Knights players is not. Please spend some time to watch the young Knights players in the squad this season. You may find out that the caliber of juniors playing grade, well ahead of their time, are outstanding talents. The challenge with the Knights atm is not lack of quality. It is severe lack of experience and mental toughness. It will come, and so will the results.
Brendon
Guest
I have to disagree with your comment Dave. You will find that, with the exception of Jeremy Smith, none the players you listed actually contributed anything to the team last year (you can add Snowden and Mullen to that list). They were all injured, suspended or dropped etc. So them moving on is not really a negative for the team at all. All the players that have been bought in, while not superstar names, are solid and will overall improve the teams performance significantly. Add to this a full off-season for last years rookies, like the Saifiti Brothers, and you can expect to a much better showing in 2017. Brown and Mooney have a long term plan, which the whole club are buying into. Its based around developing our local talent and boosting this with targeted signings. This process takes time but will lead to long term success for the club I believe the knights can honestly push for a 10th place finish this year, and back into the 8 come 2018.
joe
Guest
Really good preview.Very informative & specific on the teams strengths & their extensive weaknesses.Hard to believe with such a vast junior base & a 1 team/1 city situation in a rugby league stronghold, the Knights are so bad.Seems their management is the cause of a lot of the problems that have plagued the club the past decade.Until that gets sorted out its hard to build a championship caliber team.Thanks again for the preview.
kk
Roar Pro
Quietly flows the mighty Hunter Awaiting the arrival of the Cowboy. Patient. Original. Noble. Generous. Able. all the attributes you would expect from a Knight. In the interim, play as hard as you can for as long as you can. Make the home games pay.
The eye
Guest
As it stands Nathan Ross is the best attacking pin in the side a glance at their best tries of '16 will see him feature thru tackle busting,in most..the more ball they get to him the better..give him a shot at fullback,picking up metres on kick returns and bobbing up all over the park.
Magnus M. Østergaard
Roar Guru
Jeremy Smith is a loss, I will grant you that, but between the other 3 in McManus, Uate and Rochow they only played a combined 18 games last year. I am sure they won't be missed that much. Brown does have a long term plan. You have to remember the absolute rubbish the club was in in regards to Salary caps etc when he arrived. Bennett has planned to get a premiership within 3 years and run and it didn't work. A winger on $500k is impossible to sustain. They are also building a fantastic culture around the club from what I have seen and it will be a few years away from finals but I see them as being back there in 2019/2020.
Hard Yards
Roar Rookie
Jeremy I also agree with you. They'll be a better side for the flogging they received last year. Expect Sio to impress. Buhrer will be a steadying influence. The enthusiasm of youth can sometimes make up for a lack of technical proficiency. I reckon they'll come up with a few unexpected wins against some complacent opponents.
GC Dave
Guest
Good article. Look at the transfers out and In. The quality out is better than the quality in. Jeremy Smith, Uate, Rochow and Mc Manus will be missed. Uate and Mcmanus made the state of origin level I believe. The ins are not in that league. The Titans were never going to run last in 2016. They had a fair base and a fantastic coach who had guided Canberra through the wooden spoon prediction rubbish. Brown does not have runs on the board in the NRL and he's not likely to get them with this lot. Rugby League needs a good strong side in the City for the game's sake. Lets hope someone, somehow can come up with a long term plan for them to be competitive.
GC Dave
Guest
I want what you are taking Jeff
Dan
Guest
Agree with you there Jeremy. Also Barnett will play lock with buhrer on an edge, wardle in the centres and either tupou, mickey paea or jack stockwell infront of josh king. Round 1 Pythian Ross Gagai Wardle Sio Lamb Hodkinson Dsaifiti Levi Matora Buhrer Matautia Barnett Randell(kostjasyn injured) Jsaifiti Starling Tupou
Magnus M. Østergaard
Roar Guru
Nah I don't see them dropping that far 6-8th for sure over the next 2 years. But irrelvant to the article KEv.
Jeremy
Guest
Your full strength team is slightly incorrect. Expect Gagai to line up in the centres with either Peter Mata'utia or Dylan Phythian at fullback. The Knight's strength is really its youth. The two Saifiti brothers, alongside Barnett, Sione and players like King bring a lot of raw talent and potential. When they begin to reach that potential, if they do so, the Knights forward pack will be quite dynamic. Likewise, if and when Lamb and Levi start hitting their straps, and when Ponga arrives next year, the nucleus of an extremely good spine is there. On your point regarding lack of gel: reports out of preseason is that this is an extremely tight group of players; perhaps bonded by the youthful energy present. Anyway, I don't expect the Knights to do anything outlandish, but I think they are better side than they're given credit for.
Ron Swanson
Roar Guru
After the Safiti twins, the Matt Utai brothers and others rack up 50+ games in 1st grade, along with a few "smart" forward signings, 2018 and beyond could be the start of something special but for 2017, the suffering and pain will continue but long term, provided the inner sanctum Knights old boys club supports and doesn't sharpen knives, Browny and co. should come out the other side with a highly competitive football side. Keep the faith as hard as it is. Going to be a real tight competition this year. Picking 15th to 1st is a massive challenge, 16th appears the only real cert but as we all know sport can throw up some odd results, Leicester City EPL Champs now battling for EPL survival.