St Kilda won’t make the finals this year. Their 2016 season saw too many things go right to be replicated, or bested, and natural improvement can’t overcome this. But unlike some other teams on the bubble, a sixth-straight season outside the eight matters little.
Victoria’s smallest club is close to holding football’s most unwanted title: the longest gap between their last premiership and their next shot.
It has been half a century since the Saints saluted in the last game of the (VFL) season. The 18-team, 22-game league we now watch through the winter is far removed from the dozen-team, 18-game league in which the Saints were last premiers, in 1966.
St Kilda have also ‘won’ nine wooden spoons since then – the most of any team since 1966. It is two more than Melbourne, who last won the premiership in 1964. They hold the Footscray Memorial Cup, named in honour of the Western Bulldogs all-time record 62 years between flags.
Both teams enter 2017 full of optimism, hope and desire for a game in September. With at least one spot up for grabs – sorry, North fans – both St Kilda and Melbourne are primed to take it. Yes, Essendon, Fremantle, Port Adelaide, Gold Coast, Collingwood and Richmond also have ambitions, but the pre-season love is flowing the way of those two clubs with the most tortured fan-bases.
For as long as I’ve been writing about the AFL, I’ve been bullish about the future prospects of St Kilda. It started in 2015, when the Saints were showing all the signs of a building team on the verge of putting it all together. Then came their scintillating 2016 pre-season form, which had me picking them as a potential finals bolter on the back of a sound game plan and soft draw.
Our last look came during the trade period, as St Kilda’s off season crew took a desperate Hawthorn and fleeced them cold.
The common thread: a premiership tilt is coming.
The only question is the timing. It won’t be this year. A trip to the finals will have to wait, too. But that shouldn’t diminish the optimism of St Kilda fans and fans of St Kilda alike.
A one time only offer
St Kilda outperformed last year. That much we know. They were pencilled in as a bottom six side, owing to their 6.5-win season the year prior, and question marks over the quality of their young talent. There were clouds unfairly gathering over Alan Richardson, too, with his team’s inconsistency from week to week thought to be a sign of tactical flaws.
Not so. The young Saints of 2016 won 12 games, almost doubling their win total in a season where not much else changed in the mid-table. St Kilda punched above their weight in beating Geelong and (a weakened version of) the Western Bulldogs, two preliminary finalists that lost 14 games combined on the year.
But their performance over the full 22 games season was less convincing. As we showed earlier in the year, the Saints outperformed their actual output by 2.2 wins on the year, according to Pythagorean wins. Seven out of the ten teams over the past decade who have outperformed their Pythagorean wins by two or more have gone backwards in the following season.
Beating the maths is not impossible, but it’s hard.
Part of the outperformance was due to the team’s inconsistency – a line we’ve seen the Saints roll out a few times this pre-season. The Saints were blown out three times last year, against West Coast (103 points, away), Adelaide (88 points, away) and Sydney (70 points, home).
This season’s numbers game also showed St Kilda’s schedule difficult is set to ramp up. That’s to be expected; the AFL try their best to handicap the fixture based on a team’s finishing position from the year prior. Jumping from 14th to ninth put St Kilda into the middle bracket for fixturing purposes instead of the bottom bracket.
Upon closer inspection, the Saints’ fixture gets much tougher. They played their final eight games in Victoria, against four of the bottom six, North Melbourne and the Western Bulldogs at the height of their injury crisis (Round 18). They won six of those games, moving from 12th to ninth in the process.
Six of St Kilda’s 14 Etihad Stadium games came in that run. The Saints kicked 95 points per game (for an OER of +6.8, ranked seventh on the season if they recorded it over the full season) under the dome, with a Round 2 shellacking at the hands of the Dogs in their first encounter the difference between triple digits.
Away from shelter, it was a completely different story: 78 points per game and an OER of -12.2 – ranked 15th if it was their full year mark.
Some combination of their opponents, familiarity with the venue and Richardson’s strategy are conspiring to cause the disparity. The Saints have been averse to travel in recent years, too. The upside to 14 games at Etihad is great, but the downside is clear.
That matters, because St Kilda’s fixture gets difficult both home and away in 2017. The Saints travel to Perth twice, Adelaide twice, and Sydney and Tasmania once each to face the Swans and Hawks, respectively. Last year’s cushy finish to the season has been replaced with a back-to-back away trip to Sydney and Port Adelaide in Round 18 and 19, before a final four games that flip between Etihad and the MCG.
It isn’t terminally difficult, but the ramp up is significant enough to raise a red flag.
The Saints’ reality check doesn’t end there. According to Champion Data, the Saints had one of the best runs with injury and absence in the competition last year.
St Kilda lost just 80 games due to injury across their entire 2016 list, the fewest in the competition. 44 of those games were credited to Jake Carlisle’s WADA ban and Nathan Freeman’s tetchy hamstrings. Their list was pristine in a manner that is rare in today’s AFL; as a point of contrast, Gold Coast lost 225 games to injury, equal to ten full player seasons.
That kind of injury luck can’t last. St Kilda’s figures are probably structurally lower than league average due to their relative youth, but still, losing just 80 games across a 45 player list is extremely low.
In a similar vein, can St Kilda expect more stellar performances from their ageing champions Nick Riewoldt and Leigh Montagna, and to a lesser extent (in both respects) Sean Dempster and Sam Gilbert? The quartet, in effect the last vestiges of St Kilda’s late 2000s barn-burner, missed just three games between them, playing critical roles through the middle and in defence.
Can Riewoldt dominate the right wing as a 34-year-old with 314 games in his legs? Well, probably, yes because he’s not human, but history says it will be a challenge. Can Leigh Montagna play another above average season as a half back? Will Dempster and Gilbert’s old school defender stylings hold up in a meta-game that is pushing defenders to become more attacking by the year? Can both play in the same back six?
On the bright side
These veterans remain important cogs in coach Richardson’s scheme. Riewoldt’s unique role is particularly critical, given it allows the Saints to play with an extra tall forward that can stay anchored to the 50-metre arc. That’s because Riewoldt’s ability to run the wing, coupled with his marking prowess, eliminates the need for a forward to play higher up the ground to link up with the defence.
We saw St Kilda roll with a line up which included Riewoldt, Tim Membrey, Josh Bruce and Paddy McCartin seven times last year – a line up which conventional wisdom says would be too tall.
This tall line up – with or without McCartin, who missed 11 full games and a bunch of time in a few others due to repeat concussions – was critical for St Kilda’s 2016 rise. In their 12 wins, the Saints took 17.5 marks inside 50 per game, which would have been a clear first in the league if over a full year; in losses that dropped to 10.6, ranked in the bottom six.
In many ways, St Kilda’s is the accidental forward line, built on the back of Riewoldt’s evergreen-ness, the timing of their number one pick, and two recycled players discarded by sides who didn’t find their full potential (Membrey and Bruce).
They say luck favours the prepared, and the brave, and St Kilda have had measures of both during their build.
The collection of young talent the Saints have acquired over the past five years is impressive, and deep. We’ve been through this before but it bears repeating here. St Kilda have three distinct clusters of talent in their playing group: the shrinking old stager class, the prime age class, and the booming baby class. The prime age group makes up close to half of St Kilda’s best 22.
Their 28 players aged 24 or under at Round 1 is second behind Brisbane – and equal with Melbourne and the Western Bulldogs – for most in the league. St Kilda are a young side that plays like it; an intensity synonymous with a 19-year-oldmaking his way in the AFL system.
The Saints can therefore expect natural improvement to lean against the more macro level concerns about their 2017 season. Their best 22, based on revealed preferences in 2016 – a fancy way of saying Richardson and co will pick the guys that played the most games last year – now has a solid base of experience baked in.
In addition, St Kilda will have the services of Jake Carlisle, Nathan Freeman and the newly traded Jack Steele available to them. Carlisle takes the spot of the retired Sam Fisher down back, Freeman – a half back in his junior days – has the skills to play as a burst runner through the middle of the ground, and Jack Steele joins the inside midfield group bursting at the seams with competition.
The Saints also added Nathan Brown and Koby Stevens, who at worst add to the squad’s depth at a demographic (aged 28 and 25, respectively) that makes sense given the youthfulness of much of their list.
The bolt-on acquisitions of St Kilda are as impressive as any team right now, more so for the quantity of useful players rather than the quality (GWS win the quality title). Most of it was acquired on the cheap, too. I count 11 players on St Kilda’s list who began AFL life with another club, with up to nine of them being in St Kilda’s best 22. The club’s collective eye for disused talent is the sharpest in the game.
The journey continues
Alan Richardson goes alright, too. The long-time AFL apprentice employs a system with a simple idea at its core: if you work hard with and without the ball, you are good enough to hang with the best teams. St Kilda work to create congestion with extra numbers around the ball, and then look to spread into open space when they win it.
The team loves running in straight lines and linking up with short kicks – a weakness in this, of course, is when the short kicks miss targets, the ball has a habit of quickly travelling the other way.
In their wins, St Kilda averaged a clanger every 8.4 possessions. In losses, the figure falls to 6.8. Data in the AFL Live app suggests St Kilda were one of the most careful sides with the ball in hand, averaging just over 65 turnovers per game in 2016, ranked third in the competition (a win/loss split is no longer available).
It’s a game style that keeps them in touch with their opponents regardless of pedigree – it was part of the reason I was so bullish on them in 2016. Their playing stocks, chock full of mid-sized midfielders with pace to burn, make it work. If anything, the list could use an extra dimension or two to help them go to the next level tactically: a half back or two with a rangey kicking boots.
As we discussed in November, they have the assets to land a big fish or two in the coming off season, to cap off a build which is rapidly reaching completion. After yesterday’s events, I’m even less convinced than I was before that Nat Fyfe is the man the Saints are looking for.
When everything is laid out on the table, it’s plain to see the Saints are on a path to something great. Reaching 12 wins in the middle stages of a harsh rebuild is a feat to be proud of.
As Alan Richardson told News Limited yesterday, the talent is there for everyone to see:
“What you want as a coach of a footy club is to make sure you have enough talent and we have definitely got that now. I have no doubt that this group is going to be a really, really strong footy team, and of course we are working towards that in 2017.”
Working towards the end objective – the follow up to the club’s 1966 premiership – will certainly continue this season. But the dream run of 2016 that led to a winning season ahead of time is unlikely to return. Too much went right. That will mean St Kilda spend another year outside of September, looking in.
For most other clubs on the bubble – think Collingwood, Richmond, Port Adelaide in particular – that would up the pressure on all concerned. Not so at St Kilda. Another year of development will have this side primed for an assault in 2018.
DW
Guest
'WON'T' make the eight? As opposed to 'may not'...? Really Ryan? You sure you're not stirring the pot? There's a few salient points made here, but IMHO, a few flimsy ones too. Overall, I don't think its enough to convince me Saints can be written off for a finals spot. I do think Saints will likely find it tough this year to squeeze into the eight. I can see several teams going head to head to scrape in the bottom four, in what I think is the most even year I can recall. However none of your 'cons' convinced me to down-grade my forecast. There were two main points I took issue with. Firstly, I thought you saying Saints are 'averse to travel in recent years' doesn't really stack up. For starters, other comments about the 2016 Saints lack of sizable defence and the resultant exposure against tall forwards were spot on. A few interstate games were awful, with small defenders hopelessly out-gunned e.g. against the WCE and the Crows. However Carlisle and Brown will plug that gap. As others pointed out, a bit more size up the back could well have meant two respectable losses rather than two blow-outs, both of which helped ensure we narrowly missed a 2016 semi spot. Also, if you're going to cite the shockers, what about them taking Hawthorn right down to the wire in Tassie? Even Clarko admitted the Hawks dodged a bullet that day, and that Saints outplayed them. As for the 'recent seasons' part of it - I disagree completely. I looked up the last three seasons (since Richo began as coach , in 2014). In that time, Saints' full season- to-interstate only games percentage ratio was 61 / 53, 78 / 68 and 96 / 55, in 2014 - 16 respectively. So yes, the 2016 away Saints were obviously awful a few times on the road. But there is nothing to suggest Richo's Saints are allergic to airports if you look more widely, and include their 2014 and 2015 records. I am not saying this proves much: it is hardly a huge sample (20 games in total). However it dwarfs the five game sample you used. Overall, I just didn't see anything that supported your point that Saints are 'averse to travel' or that this averseness has happened 'in recent years'. Secondly, as others noted, there was another very small sample used, in your Pythagorean 'regressing teams' example. The lack of results hardly makes for a compelling 'knock'. Anyway, that's enough cons of your cons. For what it is worth, on the topic of injuries: I agree that the 2016 Saints were indeed blessed by the footy-injury gods. However I am just not as convinced as many others that it was a complete fluke. To explain why: I compile my own player data, which I use in various ways. One factor I calculate is what I call an 'injury index', which I measure for all 18 teams, It is the average of the entire squad at season start), minus the average 22 actual players each week. )It is measured in Fantasy points. There are a few tweaks (e.g. excluding rookies, and some normalising of data), but overall, they are pretty basic numbers, and hardly likely to have the board of Champion Data getting worked up over me as a threat to their empire. That said, they actually hold up OK across seasons, and are quite useful in showing overall impacts for each team, in terms of injuries suffered. They also perform pretty soundly in various prediction models I have run. Most interesting here though is that they show that Saints consistently avoid injuries ACROSS SEASON, compared to other sides,. From 2013-16 inclusive, Saints are actually #1 on my injury-index. Again, pretty basic numbers, but they do suggest some teams may well manage their lists better than others, year in year out. And Saints are one such side. My overall point is this: While Saints had a great run with injuries last year, their lack of injuries has been consistently good for for four years running, according to my numbers. Overall, my analysis also suggests some teams could well owe at least some of their good injury record to good list management (including Saints). So I wouldn't be shocked as most people, if Saints did have another relatively injury free run this year. Ultimately, like you, I also believe that irrespective of 2017, 2018 is where it all comes together. We should have some star players on board this time next year. And a lot of our promising young players will have many more miles in their legs. Should be all systems go in 2018. I have marked them about 50/1 chances this year. That said, like most Saints fans, I am sure I would find a way to cope if some good results came a year early. Would make a nice change from results getting lost in the post so many times previously.
Lester
Guest
Lot of difference between Power in 2014 IMO... Saints best games and run of victories came when their maniac pressure was at its best. Their run was good, but only when started by their pressure....keep the pressure at 150% and your run will come no matter what team you are playing....
Lester
Guest
There's a lot who have more than enough talent and ablility to be future stars. Hard to say they will be obviously but can start here. Billings, McCartin, Gresham, Steele, Seb Ross, Freeman (injury permitting), Acres, Hugh Goddard. Carlisle could be added although he is already in his prime. Steven a star in his prime now with a good few years in him. Hickey i believe will be top 2 ruck in comp this year. One thing i am torn about is how we spend our 2 first rounders next year.....Could potentially get 2 serious gun youngsters....tempting to take it to the draft....
Aransan
Guest
A very young Jake Carlisle was in All-Australian form in the first half of a season a few years back. Essendon couldn't play All-Australians Hooker, Hurley and Carlisle along with Fletcher together in the back line and this led to the largely failed experiment with Carlisle in the forward line. Played at centre half back he will be an All-Australian for St. Kilda and perhaps will fill a missing piece in St. Kilda's jigsaw puzzle.
me too
Guest
one of them kicked just about the goal of the year to help us overrun you guys at the death.
Josh
Expert
I recall you saying quite a bit about how much Jake Carlisle would improve the Saints when first recruited Ryan - he's finally going to be able to play for them now, but barely gets a mention here. This team has a lot more than just "natural improvement" to lift them up in 2017. You add in Carlisle as the centrepiece down back, Jack Billings having the season this year that we all though he might in 2016, a full or mostly full season from Paddy McCartin, and maybe a little help from Jack Steele and Nathan Freeman, and this is a finals team for sure. I've often found that my predictions don't blossom until a decent stretch later than I expect them too, and I reckon your call at the start of last year will come true, just one season late. Dustin Martin & two first round picks at the end of the year would cap off a pretty good year for Saints fans, too. By the way, does anyone else think that Tim Membrey's palm tree tattoo, despite being absolutely horrendous, is kind of mesmerising? I find myself googling it maybe once a month.
DARREN
Guest
What a great article with plenty of stats to back up your opinion. I see a lot of similarities between the St Kilda team and the Port Power team of 2014. I believed my beloved Power would press on to a GF, but unfortunately teams found a way to limit their run and I believe the same thing will happen to the Saints. With Carlisle in defense, and a strong forward line and many runners in the middle good luck shutting them down.
Cat
Roar Guru
Who are the Saints future stars? I see a bunch of decent B to B+ recruits and draft picks, but I don't see the star power.
Brian
Guest
thats not bad. As soon as the window was shut they gave up Goddard & Del Santo and its now paying dividends. They also lost Stanley & McEvoy but their ruck stocks look good.
Luke
Guest
Not worth 2 first rounders... Even then if they went for him they'd give him an offer Richmond won't be able to match.
Luke
Guest
Talking to the author as this was his piece not yours
Brian
Guest
I don't know how to practically take up that offer but otherwise I would be happy to bet Saints will miss the 8
Ryan Buckland
Expert
Two 2017 first round picks is a pretty good way to start a rebuild, hey?
Cameron Rose
Expert
And that big fish smells like Dustin and tastes like Martin...
Luke
Guest
The reason why the Saints did not make finals this year was on the back of not having a stable defence. Dempster, Fisher, Gilbert, Roberton all could not handle the big power forwards and rightfully so. As a result guys like Kennedy, Franklin, Tex, Jenkins, Hogan kicking bags against us and to prove how bad it was Brown from Bombers kicked 4. Bring in Carlisle and Brown really nullifies their impact reducing domination. Effectively what I am saying is if we had Carlisle and Brown v WCE and Adelaide we may have only lost by 40 pts each which ultimately would have allowed us to have enough % to play in September. Another point in 2016 Membrey, Hickey, Weller, Ross, Newnes all elevated their games to the next level. Therefore, on the back of that trend you'd expect guys like Billings, Gresham, McCartin, Acres, McKenzie (having a ripper pre-season) Lonie (promising in final game). To breakout which to me suggests that the Saints will improve in 2017. This is without even mentioning Jack Steele who had similar numbers if not better numbers than Tom Mitchell in the NEAFL and we all know what happened when he finally got an opportunity at AFL level. Freeman is the other one to look out for. You're right the draw is also much more difficult however, I wouldn't be expecting teams like Hawthorn to improve given their age demographic and what they have lost over the off-season, and their might not be a lot of improvement out of Geelong, Adelaide and WCE who (excluding Eagles 2015 GF) have sorted treaded water the last few seasons. Another deficiency in STK line up was their contested ball numbers this will be greatly improved with the introduction of Stevens and Steele (who I've mentioned). Finally, I want to leave you on this. You said STK will go backwards and not make finals.. How about you put your money where your mouth is and have a bet with me on this?
Luke
Guest
FYI Brian - not sure you watch the Saints that often but "Roberton" and Savage play off HB and not in the midfield
Ryan Buckland
Expert
Per the below, the "smallest" club was in reference to a few metrics. It's just a descriptor haha. I think their midfield is a bit better than "not near the top eight", but it's probably a bit behind the absolute peak of the competition. It's also very young and still has room to grow. It'll be great before too long.
Ryan Buckland
Expert
It was on the basis of some combination of average crowd, club-wide revenue and membership. On these measures, St Kilda is second last, last and third last on the figures I saw. I don't see it as a negative thing at all - it was just a descriptor.
Ryan Buckland
Expert
So it was! My mental math failed me, I pegged it at 62. When I first drafted that passage I had it as the South Melbourne Cup (which works better than Footscray Cup) but when I checked I thought I had to change it. This is good news. I've got no doubt it would be a league high, 11 is huge. They've done really well. Now all they need to do is land their big fish in this year's off season and it will be a perfectly executed rebuild.
Cameron Rose
Expert
I've been putting together my best 22's for each club over the last couple of weeks, and I actually make it 11 cast-offs from other clubs in St Kilda's best 22, which I believe will be a league high. They've done supremely at identifying talent elsewhere on a needs basis, and then getting it to work for them. Also, South Melbourne/Sydney were 72 years between flags, which is longer than the Dogs record. If you say that South Melbourne and Sydney were counted as two different clubs, then so should Footscray and the Western Bulldogs. :)