The Warriors have to make the eight this year. I mean, I know they had to make the eight last year, and the year before that, but they have to make it this year, right?
The last time the side from New Zealand made the top eight was 2011 – only Parramatta have had a longer finals drought.
Last year, their season was a write-off as a result of off-field shenanigans, form plummets, weird player selections and injuries to key personnel – and all that with three-quarters of the international New Zealand spine.
So how do you improve a team that has most of an international spine? You sign the final pieces.
The Warriors have signed troubled former Eel Kieran Foran, and it has been confirmed that he can play starting from Round 3. They also recruited former New Zealand coach Stephen Kearney.
Will this be enough to finally get this team back into the eight?
Strengths
This spine is the polar opposite of St George’s.
Shaun Johnson is a real livewire, Issac Luke demonstrated in his time at the Rabbitohs that he certainly knows how to play, Roger Tuivasa-Sheck is one of the game’s premier fullbacks, and Foran is one of the best five-eighths in the game.
With Johnson, Luke and Tuivasa-Sheck providing spark, and Foran being the calm, controlling influence he was at Manly, if this spine gels they will be hard to stop.
The forward pack is also great. Ben Matulino and Jacob Lillyman are a fearsome starting pair, while Bodene Thompson, Josh Hoffman and Simon Mannering are great defensively, have a lot of experience and can run a good line. They only thing they lack is power, which Bunty Afoa provides off the bench.
Also, while most of the other backs are iffy, Solomone Kata is a quality player, and unlike previous talented New Zealand backs, like Konrad Hurrell, he doesn’t have an attitude problem, which means he should be playing for this side for years to come.
Weaknesses
Unfortunately, Kata is a shining light in a sea of mediocre backs. Tuimoala Lolohea is a half they are slotting at the wing due to a lack of better options and because he is too good to leave out of the team. Meanwhile, Manu Vatuvei used to fluctuate between amazing and terrible, but now he fluctuates between mediocre and terrible performances. At least he has become more consistent.
In my South Sydney preview, I had a question mark against a lot of their strengths. The same applies to the Warriors spine.
On paper it is fantastic, but all of them have issues that may hamper their 2017.
Luke was terribly out of form last year, Johnson has struggled to maintain the form that saw the Warriors charge into the 2011 grand final, and Tuivasa-Sheck is coming back from a major knee surgery, so who knows what impact it will have on his play.
Finally, there is Foran. We all saw the meltdown he had, and I am not getting into the issue of whether or not he should play again, however considering what happened last year is he in the right mindset to play?
That feeds into the other major concern with New Zealand: their culture. There are so many examples of the Warriors phoning performances in and just not caring, as well as all sorts of off-field mischief. It is one of the reasons they have been underachievers for years and the reason for the gulf between this side’s best and worst.
Additionally, Kearney may have been a successful international coach, however there is a world of difference between coaching a side for three games a year and coaching a side all season. Kearney has been a head coach before, for Parramatta in 2011 and 2012, when he won ten matches from 42. 24 per cent is not a good winning record, and while that side had decent defence, they looked aimless in attack.
Kearney has probably learnt a thing or two since then, but I still have questions over his ability.
Summary
This is going to be one of my riskiest predictions, but the Warriors will miss the eight again.
Yeah, they have a ridiculously good side, but they have had a really good side for years and that has meant bugger all. I have just been Pavlovian conditioned now to believe they will disappoint.
They have the potential to finish in the top eight, probably even in the top four, but I just can’t see them doing it. They will finish 10th and once again disappoint.
2016 finish: 10th
Predicted 2017 finish: 10th
Transfers
Gains: Kieran Foran
Losses: Raymond Faitala-Mariner, Thomas Leuluai, Shaun Lane, Jonathan Wright, Henare Wells
Full-strength team
1. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck
2. Tuimoala Lolohea
3. David Fusitu’a
4. Solomone Kata
5. Manu Vatuvei
6. Kieran Foran
7. Shaun Johnson
8. Ben Matulino
9. Issac Luke
10. Jacob Lillyman
11. Bodene Thompson
12. Josh Hoffman
13. Simon Mannering
14. Jazz Tevaga
15. Bunty Afoa
16. Albert Vete
17. Charlie Gubb
Sylvester
Guest
I watched the Gold Coast trial match today. There was a lot to like. Lisone was excellent and RTS looked really sharp. The key concern for the Warriors as always is the edge defence and whether Johnson turns up to play.
donkey dribble
Guest
not only does Akari know the team it would seem that he is also privy to thier innermost thoughts.
Jacko
Guest
What prejudices???? Im prejudiced against Akari for lying???
Jacko
Guest
Of course I live in hope every year with the Warriors but it doesnt excuse your lies about the Warriors believing they are better than every other player in the comp. Divert away from the question Akari but that doesnt change the fact that you are wrong
Kevin Malone
Guest
He doesn't, it's all his own prejudices in his own mind
Akari
Guest
Face the reality, Jacko, as you have been feasting on a false hope for years now as you don't know your team at all.
Jacko
Guest
Answer my question.....How do you know that the players RATE themselves as BETTER than other players from other teams. Having spent a fair bit of time around quite a few of these guys I never once found them to be Big headed at all. Most are very humble and making up rubbish doesnt help anyone. Yes I do get emotional when people who know SFA just make stufff up to make their point important.....Of course I am emotional about people lying about my team, but you think you arnt lying so prove to me you arnt and answer the question.
no one in particular
Roar Guru
need to learn to win at home
peeeko
Guest
everyone is sick of tipping melbourne to fall away. everyone also is sick of NZ dissapointing therefore NZ will win it and Storm will struggle to make the 8
Akari
Guest
Don't let your emotions get the better of you, Jacko.
Glenn
Guest
One thing not mentioned here is the travelling they do. A 4 hour trip from Auckland to Sydney is bad enough but to then fly to Brisbane and then to Townsville is worse. Last year (and also think year before) Souths had them flying to Perth. Really should that be allowed? The Cowboys are in a similar position but don't generally travel that many hours. They too had trouble adjusting to the constant travel until recently.
Jacko
Guest
Making stuff up Akari? How would you know that all the Warriors players rate themselves better than their opposition, then at the end of the season they realise they arnt. What dribble. And before the next season starts they forget they arnt better and go back to thinking they are better again?
Keith Sheldon
Roar Guru
Oh I got him confused with Ryan Hoffman..... that's awkward.
Akari
Guest
The problem with the Warriors is that the players rate themselves way above other opposition players. They may well be correct if they were in a NZ context and competition. On evidence thus far, they don't seem to work hard enough to raise their level of physical and mental fitness to cope in the NRL. The sad thing is this has been on-going for sooooo long it's no longer funny. They only seem to find the error of their ways on the field when they then realise that they are not that good and cannot earn respect from players brought up on a diet of uncompromising and competitive Oz league system. The spine looks great on paper but they will need support from an uncompromising forward pack. Ben Matulino is a diminished player and doesn't produce the goods on a weekly basis. And then they have a back row of Bodene Thompson, Hoffman and Simon Mannering. They are all hard working but they all deliver the same result with no impact player amongst them. They need to find at least one impact player and slot him into Thompson's position. If they do, they may just get into the top 8. As this is unlikely, the bottom 8 is where they are likely to be found.
The eye
Guest
nigh on unbelievable that a squad such as this continually lets their fans down..and they wonder why no one turns up at the nines.. You'd think Johnson Foran and RTS would rip sides apart once inside the red zone..and they will.. Dunno what theyre going to do with Lolo..in fairness to the coaches he does turn off in games..his performance against Parra in Round 26 was nightmarish.. If they fail again this year...they're unsaveable..
Stu
Guest
Lets just hope Tevanga and Afoa are nowhere near the starting 17. If a back up hooker is required, Roache or Hingano should be there over the hugely overrated Tevanga. Johnson made Afoa look like a world beater at times last year but he is quite possibly the most unathletic forward at the club (definatley not a back rower). Tof Sipley and Lisone should be on the bench. Kata, Vete, Lisone, Fusitua and Lolohea are now into their 3rd full season as NRL players and you should hope this brings a consistency to their play. Luke for all his problems in the first 6 rounds improved dramatically during the season and resulted in a good run of form, the warriors missed him in a couple of key games towards the finals last year in which Tevanga was unable to step up. Warriors to finish 5th
JOHNY BULLDOG
Roar Rookie
Josh Hoffman?
Birdy
Guest
Inconsistancy is a word never left out when describing the warriors. Frustration and depression are also never far away. Despite their quality signings and the addition of Foran the pressure will be well and truley on Kearney, I think he , the fans and the front office will expect instant results. I'd hate to be an underperforming warrior this year. Will the mad butcher be sharpening his knife for another cull?
kk
Roar Pro
Hi Keith, enjoy your work. The key to Warriors winning in 2017 is the absolute necessity to make the home games pay. Only Cowboys, Souths and Tigers miss the return flight Auckland. Of the remaining 12 teams, it is difficult to envisage only 3 of them taking the points at Mt Smart which would give the Warriors 9 wins / 18 points on the ladder . Then they have to find another 6 wins elsewhere if 30 points makes the top 8. On paper, that's the easy part. The back line is one of the best in League. Foran, Johnson and Luke are tough but injury prone. The ageing pack will rely heavily on Vete and Afoa to inject and maintain some much needed grunt up front. When it comes to maiden premierships I reckon the Titans are better placed in 2017 and expect both of them to finish in the 5-8 bracket, injuries permitting. When Watson, Doyle and Kearney get the forward pack right, the Kiwis will fly. Can they?
The Barry
Roar Guru
I agree. I've given up predicting the Storm to bomb and for it to be the Warriors season. They'll start terribly, surge through origin and be everyone's smokey and then bomb. When you go through it quickly this side seems killer, but closer analysis and there's a lot of ordinary areas. Luke doesn't seem the player he was. Huge question marks over how Foran will turn out. Johnson on his day is as good as anyone but has been expected to carry the side. RTS is coming back from a really bad knee injury. Mannering, Hoffman and Lillyman are past their best and aren't great every week. Matulino awesome in 2015, ordinary last year. Lolohea used and abused by McFadden and out of position on the wing. Another team where if everything falls into place they'll make the bottom half of the eight but I reckon in that 9th-12th zone.