Saints and sinners. Heaven and hell. Demons and do-gooders. There’s always been something of a biblical connection between the Melbourne and St Kilda football clubs, and in 2017 they find themselves in similar positions.
If you were to ask the footy fan on the street which sides from outside last year’s top eight are ready to make the leap into finals footy, it’s these two who would come up most often.
They both hung around in the mix for September until late last year, and the Saints would likely have made it had fortune been just a little bit kinder, missing out on percentage behind North Melbourne, a team they lost to twice (the first time in controversial circumstances – that free kick was there though, and Mason Wood is a tactical genius).
They both boast a lot of high draft picks in recent years, as well as some clever recruiting on the cheap from outside the club, and the promise of a style of play that can consistently win games.
Looking at the Saints, their selling point for mine is what looks like it could be the best forward line in the league in five years’ time.
Paddy McCartin is the emerging centrepiece, a player who once he gets a good run of luck will be a force to be reckoned with.
Add in Josh Bruce with 88 goals in the last two years as his second banana, and Tim Membrey – the competition’s most improved player last year – and they’ve got no shortage of goal-kicking power.
All that is needed is for some of the smalls to develop a little further – Jack Lonie has shown a bit but needs to add more dimensions to his game. Maverick Weller, Jade Gresham and especially Jack Billings can all be regular scorers on the half-forward line.
When it comes to the Dees, their selling point is their skull-cracking midfield of the future.
First you’ve got Max Gawn, who if born in Viking times would’ve conquered half of Europe by now.
Then you add in contested beasts Jack Viney, Angus Brayshaw, and Clayton Oliver, all only just beginning to establish themselves.
Of course, one also can’t forget Nathan Jones and new recruit Jordan Lewis. The Demons have no shortage of guys who can make their physical presence known.
They are going to leave opposition midfields black and blue.
Both sides have similar situations in defence. A unit built around one elite tall – Tom McDonald for the Demons, Jake Carlisle for the Saints – and a quality ball-carrier brought in from another club – Michael Hibberd, Shane Savage.
The Saints have a little more veteran experience here, but the Dees arguably have greater upside in terms of their half-back options, with Jayden Hunt and Christian Salem showing real class.
Both arguably lack a little class through the middle of the ground, but have the players on the list to provide this in the future.
The Saints have Billings, Gresham, Blake Acres, Nathan Freeman, Daniel McKenzie and Ben Long. The Demons have Salem, Christian Petracca, Dom Tyson and Billy Stretch.
Both have new captains – Jack Viney moving into a co-captain role with Nathan Jones, and Jarryn Geary taking over from Nick Riewoldt as the new St Kilda skipper.
Both have new recruits ready to come in and boost the team – Jake Carlisle and Jack Steele for the Saints, and I guess Koby Stevens too, Jordan Lewis and Michael Hibberd for the Demons, and yeah, I suppose Jake Melksham as well.
Both, also, have a potentially fatal flaw.
The Saints rely a fair bit on veteran players Nick Riewoldt, Leigh Montagna and Sean Dempster at the moment, and were lucky enough to have a good run with injury last year.
A turn of bad luck on the injury front, particularly if it involves their ageing stars, could rule them out of the finals race pretty quickly.
The Dees more than anything just have too many questions about their psychological profile to be entirely sure they can make good on their talent.
They had some great wins last year, but no one can match their ability to turn in an absolute shocker of a performance – like their loss to Essendon last year, or the game they somehow won despite putting in every effort to not do so against Gold Coast.
So which of these two sides is most ready to make a finals appearance? In my view, there is unlikely to be enough room in the top eight for both of them.
At present moment I have two of last year’s top eight dropping out (yes, my beloved North is one of them), but I have another team aside from these two locked in to replace one of them – apologies for being so mysterious, don’t worry, we’ll get to all that.
For that last spot I have left, it’s the Saints for me. They have a similar feel to the Demons at the moment, but are just a year or maybe two ahead of them in their development.
They’re the seventh oldest list in the competition, while Melbourne are still the third youngest. A St Kilda player has, on average, played five more games and kicked nine more goals than a Melbourne player.
Simply put, they are just a little more mature, and those key young talents who need to improve to lift them into finals – Billings and McCartin the chief ones for mine – are more ready to pop.
My tip is that St Kilda will make finals this year, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them survive beyond the first week, either. Melbourne may have to wait another year, but they won’t be waiting much longer than that.
Don Freo
Guest
Under Neale Daniher.
Stirling Coates
Editor
My gut has been telling me St Kilda are the one to keep an eye on for a while, but the stats for both teams make for rather unimpressive reading. St Kilda went 2-8 against the top eight last year with an average losing margin of 50 points. For all the talk of their potent forward line, they were held to under 70 points six times last season. They did however account for the Demons twice by six goals last year. Melbourne went a poor 2-7 against the top eight last year, but their average losing margin was a more respectable 36 points. That average is trimmed right down to 23 if you exclude the final-round debacle against Geelong. I might be playing it safe but I only have one change to the top eight this year, and I genuinely believe it could be zero.
Batman
Guest
Fremantle will bounce back to take NM place in the 8th position. They have recruited well, have their injured stars back playing and last year provided great opportunity to develop their rookies. They have a better team than 2015 which was the top team.
Pumping Dougie
Guest
I think the Demons are far more likely to emerge quickly as a finals contender. I wouldn't worry too much about their mental frailty - they are a very young side led by two mentally tough warriors, Jones and Viney. They also have two future superstars and competitive beasts in Hogan and Petracca. They have class all across the field about to emerge, such as Oliver, Weideman, Salem and Hunt, and they have the the most consistently damaging, premier ruck in the comp. their only gaping hole is key defenders (they could do with Frawley back). The Saints lack class and depth in their midfield comparatively (even allowing for the emergence of Billing's and Gresham, which I believe is further away than the likes of Petracca, Viney and Oliver), which is critical to success. I think Riewoldt has been a superstar and will be sorely missed when he retires, even with McCartin (who could turn out to be just another Kositchke). With a full bill of health the Saints will still be unlikely in my opinion to finish as high as last year. Carlisle is a great recruit for them, but if they incur a normal / average run of injuries, then I think they are a definite slider. But they have recruited well and are on the right path for finals contention maybe in a couple of years time.
Sam Bunn
Roar Rookie
The saints had a pretty fortunate run with injuries last season. I believe continuity in a team is as important as anything, and something the saints were lucky enough to have last season. If they can get the same smooth run of health they're every chance of the 8, however i could say the same thing of multiple teams in that 8-13 area of the ladder
Ryan Buckland
Expert
Joshua Huckstable Elliott, did I read this passage right?!? A unit built around one elite tall – Tom McDonald for the Demons, Jake Carlisle for the Saints... I thought Jake Carlisle was the worst trade in recent AFL history? More substantively, I've already got my Saints views on the record. I'll get to the Dees at some point in the next few weeks. If I had to pick a team for the next five years it would be the Saints, but for this year it would be the Dees. Melbourne's fixture is more favourable, and I'm more confident in their ability to move the ball by foot. But we'll get to that soon enough.
Peppsy
Roar Guru
Honestly I don't know if I can see either of them in finals this year, especially with potentially only one team dropping, and then 4 or 5 teams going for that spot. Side note, Josh what's your opinion on Nick Larkey? He's an old childhood friend, but I haven't seen him play in years.
Macca
Guest
Can't see Collingwood making the 8 - I would say St Kilda, Freo, Melbourne and Gold Coast will finish above them.
Brian
Guest
GWS Sydney WB Hawthorn West Coast Adelaide Geelong Collingwood __________ Melbourne Port Fremantle Essendon Richmond St Kilda Gold Coast Carlton North Brisbane
Doc Disnick
Roar Guru
No...I fully expect Melbourne to become a basket case again within the next 5 years. They'll play an outdated @#$%y Roos style of game under Goodwin most likely. Have they actually ever been good in the AFL? I honestly can't remember if they have. Perhaps late 90's early 2000's for a short period...
Liam Salter
Roar Guru
Oh sorry didn't see you'd replied - i've been on the phone to Freo membership for the past 20 minutes haha! I don't think either of us are anticipating that either team will become basketcases again though, at least for the next decade.
Birdman
Guest
Saints edge it for me - better balanced list and they seem less damaged than the Dees who based on their late season 2017 form are seriously scarred esp. when the pressure's on. Lewis adds some grunt and leadership but is no game changer IMHO.
Bob GOOCH
Guest
Both are equal I reckon but injuries will play a big part. As a MFC member I still worry about the clubs culture and am hoping Goodwin can instal what's required as never was a great Roos fan. Already he is onto " sheep dog " Watts and although his season was OK last year he still doesn't much like the hardball get - anyhow the first round result will be critical to either teams finals aspirations
Gregi
Guest
Your kidding right...right
Liam Salter
Roar Guru
Macca - I vaguely remember watching Jayden Hunt a couple of times last year and he struck me as fairly quick.
Doc Disnick
Roar Guru
They can stay, but if Melbourne turn into a another basket case, I don't want AFL funds helping them again, nor St Kilda.
Macca
Guest
They had some kid there last year who was super quick - was it Jayden Hunt - but I don't think he played through the middle.
Slane
Guest
I don't think Bug is very fast either. Wasn't he playing in defense and/or tagging before he moved to the Saints?
me too
Guest
Could be close enough that the Saints much harder draw helps the Dees finish ahead of them. The Saints earmarked 2018 as the year of their return, but have developed faster than expected, partly due to some very astute recruiting, and partly due to players adapting well to the game plan. They have a very even group, amazing consistency of depth, but need some of that group to lift further - if many of Billings, Dunstan, Hickey, Acres, Gresham, Ross, McKenzie, Welller, Membrey, McCartin, Bruce, Roberton, Webster, Newnes, Steele, Sinclair, and Lonie continue to improve; whilst Steven, Armitage, Montagna, Roo, Demspter, Carlisle, and Stevens play to their expected level, then look out. Up in the air as to whether injury plagued Freeman and Goddard can ever fulfill their potential, but there's also a buzz of excitement around youngsters like White, Battle, and Long. And then we have good depth players such as Savage, Gilbert, and Longer; and finally of course Geary, a great leader in the Maxwell mould, who just gets better with age. Of course if the Saints yet again beat the Dees home and away, they'll finish ahead of them. We're traditionally slow starters so round one is a must win for the Dees - they won't beat us twice.
Liam Salter
Roar Guru
Oooooh, controversial call.