In the final edition of my season preview series, I take a look at four sides whose struggles this year could well send their coaches packing.
St George Illawarra Dragons
Let’s start with the positives. The Dragons have assembled one of the better forward packs in the NRL. New signings Paul Vaughn and Cameron McInnes join the likes of Tyson Frizell, Jack de Belin, Russell Packer, Joel Thompson and Tariq Sims to create a nasty mountain of misery.
And don’t forget about Luciano Leilua. The 110kg man-child is a cookie-cutter copy of his older brother, and the Dragons will hope he can create similar levels of mayhem.
St George Illawarra also boasts enviable talent throughout their backline, headlined by Josh Dugan. The man with the blueprints to Long Bay Jail tattooed on his torso remains one of the premier ball runners in the competition, and his defence at both centre and fullback has been outstanding.
Euan Aitken and Nene McDonald are criminally underrated and will be consistently among the Dragons’ best. And while Jason Nightingale moves slower than continental drift, he is reliable under the high ball and is always willing to take the tough early carries out of his own end.
But (and this is a generous, Mark Tookey-sized but) the Dragons simply can’t score enough points. It’s been a problem for years but has become more pronounced of late.
In fact, in the two years under Paul McGregor, the Dragons have ranked 15th for points scored, amassing a paltry 435 (18 ppg) and 341 (14ppg) points in 2015 and 2016 respectively. To put this in perspective, Canberra scored 736 points last season alone.
The Dragons have tried to pinpoint the source of their attacking malaise, with more finger pointing than Saturday Night Fever.
Some blame the decline of Benji Marshall, others think Gareth Widdop is the problem, while many think McGregor is not the right man for the job. I tend to think there is a morsel of truth in each argument.
So with Ben Hunt another year away, and with the decision not to sign Todd Carney or even Chris Sandow, McGregor has placed his coaching future in the hands of Josh McCrone.
Yikes!
Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs
There’s just no pleasing some people. Des Hasler guided the Bulldogs to five consecutive finals appearances, including two grand final defeats, yet he finished last season under extreme pressure to keep his job.
With opinions divided over Hasler’s future, the Bulldogs’ board went to war. Their petty arguments played out in the media like parents arguing in the other room and resulted in Steve Mortimer taking his ball and going home.
Des was eventually spared the axe, but he enters 2017 knowing his job is on the line.
Without detracting from Hasler’s success at Belmore, he is the primary culprit for the stale state of the Bulldogs’ attack. Toward the back end of last season, Canterbury became harder to watch than Ben Affleck as Batman, but still slightly easier to watch than George Clooney as Batman.
The Bulldogs finished last season eighth in points scored, but their attacking style remains too heavily reliant on skilful forwards ball-playing at the line. This tactic was highly successful in 2012, but like all successful trends in the NRL, teams have figured out how to defend it.
While Canterbury’s forward pack remains one of the premier units in the NRL, Des routinely asks too much of his big men. They aren’t halfbacks trapped in a behemoth’s body. They are just behemoths, and Hasler needs to start treating them as such.
So how does Des fix his attack? He has to let go. Like a nervous father handing over the car keys to his teenage son, Des needs to cede control of his attack to Moses Mbye.
Mbye has the talent, application and desire to take his game to the next level, yet Hasler seems reticent to hand him the reins. But whether Des likes it or not, his coaching future is bound to the performance of Moses Mbye, so he may as well embrace it.
For what it’s worth, I think Mbye will elevate his game in 2017. The Dogs will sneak into the top eight and may even win a finals game. For most teams, this would be counted as a successful season. For Des Hasler, this could well get him fired.
Manly Sea Eagles
Manly were a massive disappointment last year. In Trent Barrett’s first season as coach, the veteran Sea Eagles squad looked their age, playing a tired brand of rugby league.
For a fan-base accustomed to success, missing the finals for a second consecutive season was painful. Not since a Young Liberal mistook a shiraz for a cabernet has the stench of failure hung so heavy over the Northern Beaches.
For the second straight season, the Sea Eagles purged their roster with all the finesse of a chemical peel. Barrett exfoliated nearly 1000 games of NRL experience, which could rise to over 1400 games if Brett Stewart and Steve Matai officially retire.
While I can understand a coach wanting to stamp his identity on the roster, this might be too much too soon. In the space of 18 months, Barrett has completely eradicated any trace of the team culture that Des Hasler and Geoff Toovey fought so hard to create.
But I’m happy to give him the benefit of the doubt. The signing of Blake Green was an astute one, and will free up Daly Cherry-Evans to play his natural game. Curtis Sironen may prove to be a steal, provided he can stay on the park.
And the pickup of Roosters discard Jackson Hastings compensates for the atrocious signing of Akuila Uate. Han Solo was still alive the last time the flying Fijian produced even a decent performance.
Some may feel the inclusion of Barrett on this list is premature. How can you judge a coach after only a single season in charge? To a large extent I agree. But the reality is that Manly are a club that demand success and are intolerant of failure.
Barrett inherited a team in transition, but the Sea Eagles now have a top eight-quality roster. In the Trbojevic boys, Dylan Walker, Martin Taupau and Daly Cherry-Evans, they have a strong nucleus of marquee players.
This is a team built to win now. Their key players are in or entering the prime of their career, meaning Manly’s premiership window is open. If Trent Barrett can’t win with this squad, the Sea Eagles need to find someone who can.
Wests Tigers
I’m really struggling to get a read on this team. Entering year three of the Jason Taylor era, just who exactly are the Wests Tigers?
Are they the side who routinely scored 30 points per game in 2016 and knocked off the Panthers, Cowboys and Broncos? Or are they the team who handed an abysmal Newcastle side their only win of the season? I really have no idea.
What I do know is that there were plenty of positives to take from last season. James Tedesco established himself as the premier fullback in the competition, and new captain Aaron Woods took to leadership like a hipster to deconstructed coffee. Even Kevin Naiqama’s flat top improved in both height and volume.
But the most promising sign was the maturity and development of Mitchell Moses. Over the first 15 rounds of the season, Moses was stuck at the kids’ table while Robbie Farah directed the team around the park. During this period, Mitch logged six try assists, six line breaks and ran the ball around 3.5 times per game.
However with Robbie sinking ciders on the sideline, Moses exploded down the stretch with 11 try assists, nine line breaks and over seven runs per game. And although the Tigers fell a Ryan James swinging arm short of making the finals, the form of Moses was a handy consolation.
Defensively, the Tigers were a mess. The side conceded a massive 108 tries last season and have done little to address this glaring weakness. The forward pack remains very light on size, experience and depth, which could hold them back as the season progresses.
The Tigers will again be fun to watch, but will miss the finals for the sixth consecutive season, leading to the inevitable question: Has Taylor has done enough to keep his job?
He hasn’t.
Their salary cap remains in worse shape than Russell Crowe between movies, and the club’s biggest names remain unsigned beyond this season. Taylor’s intensive course of chemotherapy did force a troublesome locker room cancer into remission, but at a cost of over $700k, was it really worth it?
This time next year, we’ll be talking about the prospects of the Tigers’ fourth coach in six seasons.
Big Daddy
Guest
Its funny they can sack, players, coaches but never boards (parra excluded). These are the people who do hiring and firing and answer to no one. Same as NRL board.
Matth
Guest
With a quality coach in Cleary waiting in the wings, coaches are under more pressure this year than normal. Struggling clubs will be eyeing each other first, knowing if another club jumps first they'll get Cleary.
Magnus M. Østergaard
Roar Guru
Desler is a contraction of Desmond Hasler. Shouldn't be that hard to work out for someone from the Northern Beaches
Tom Rock
Expert
Hi Gus. Thanks for the feedback mate. I understand the negative sentiment around Josh Dugan and his fit in what the Dragons are trying to do. I agree with you in that Dugan is a quality player, but I don't think he should blamed for a lot of what's wrong with the St George attack. With better service from the halves, and a more creative plan of attack, I see no reason why Dugan could not be very effective in both attack and defense. He just needs to be used better. In terms of Tariq Sims, I'm not sure by simply mentioning his name once that I am overrating him, but let me leap to his defense anyway. I do believe Sims is a quality player, the type of enforcer that every club needs. I see him as a Beau Scott, an Adam Blair, or a Wade Graham. These blokes set the tone in defense. Is he an Origin caliber player? Probably not. Once perhaps, but injuries robbed him of his best chance to break into the NSW side. These days, he is a decent first grader, who will give you consistent effort without taking up too much of the cap.
Jeff dustby
Guest
Have bought well? A journey man old 6 that only looked decent because or cronk An over rated small back tower only famous because of his dad An a winger who couldn't get a start at the worst team in NRL history
Tom Rock
Expert
But do we know that Bozo is pulling the strings? For recruitment, fair enough as that's his job, but tactics and player selection? I'm not so sure. Reminds me of that story that got circulated about Russell Crowe teaching the Souths players how to run lines...
Silvertail47
Roar Rookie
Vincent DESLER? ,,, you got a hide mate , pulling me up with your spelling BS , at least you could get people's name right , isn't that what you bleated at me , there's lots I could say but I'll keep it short , excessive consumption of Vincent's will give you heart burn , nausea and the runs , you need to back off !! The Vincent's !!!
SSTID_1970
Roar Rookie
Tom, in interfering with Barrett's coaching, with his recruitment, player retention and team selections, is Fulton serving Manly or himself? He certainly isn't helping Barrett who has to face questions from the waiting media after a loss to defend tactics or selections that weren't his. Perhaps Bozo should step out of the shadows and take the reigns officially (and be judged by the results) or step back and let Barrett coach and have total control of the team and recruitment. At least then it will be clear whose fault it is.
SSTID_1970
Roar Rookie
"do the players back him?" Good question. IMO that support will start to thin as soon as a little pressure is applied and Taylor feels the heat. Taylor's man management is just as much a part of the problem as the Tigers win/loss record. Taylor rubbed players the wrong way at Souths and has continued this in his tenure at the Tigers. Now Robbie is gone Taylor has no one else to blame and nowhere to hide. He has had long enough to make his mark on the club and he has had some very talented players to work with. The bells rang out to lament the loss of a much favoured son as Farah was sent into exile at the end of 2016. In 2017 Taylor, the bell tolls for thee.
SSTID_1970
Roar Rookie
Scott, the first man at the Dragons for the Guillotine has to be CEO Peter Doust surely? He is the reason McGregor got a fast track promotion for trainer/water boy to Head Coach, he is also the man behind the clubs recruitment and retention plans, and the man responsible for letting Jason Demetriou get away. Demetriou would have been a perfect option from within to replace McGregor. Doust is also the reason for a lot of unrest behind the scene with Dragons members from what I hear.
SSTID_1970
Roar Rookie
I've been saying that for ages (but not on this site). Mbye came through lower grades as a FB and looks good running the ball in space. He was thrown into hooker and then moved to HB to try and fill a hole rather than because it was his natural position, it isn't. He even looked better playing left centre for a couple of games a few years back. Reynolds also is playing out of position. He is a hooker (which is where he started at the Dogs). If the Dogs had the halves to cover them both I would suggest moving Mbye to FB, Reynolds to hooker and Lichaa to mascot. Lichaa is another big reason why the Dogs attack is stifled and both Reynolds and Mbye lack rhythm and consistency. His delivery if so far off most of the time that they have little chance to take the ball cleanly without losing their forward momentum in the process. Too many times Lichaa has thrown the ball too high, too low, too far in front, too far behind or too late. He is indecisive and freezes under pressure. There are times inside the oppositions 10 metres he has darted out from dummy half on last tackle oblivious of the tackle count and too late has heard the screams from his halves and thrown a wild loose pass in panic which has flown wide of the mark and destroyed an attacking opportunity near the line. At other times Lichaa has had a perfect opportunity near the line to drop a deft grubber behind the defensive line and has hesitated until the gap closed and his supports were off side but then still kicked any way! Also Hopoate is a centre or a winger not a FB (that boat sailed after he left Manly and went on his 2 year Mormon mission) just as the same boat sailed for Michael Gordon when he last played as a pink Panther. Gordon should be on the wing and Hopoate should play centre/wing (though he probably lacks the speed and acceleration to play on the wing). He can cover FB as a backup but should not be a first choice, not if the Dogs want to make an impact. Just think of Ben Barba in 2012! While I am on the subject I will throw this one in as well... Jack Wighton is NOT a FB. He is a centre and "potentially" a 5/8. The Raiders missing piece in he puzzle he the need to find a Tedesco because Wighton in not the answer.
eelsalmighty
Guest
I think Taylor's fate will be known early, and is largely in the hands of the player negotiations. With the calibre of players off contract this year, who's going to be coaching the club going forward is going to be a major issue, and will need clarity ASAP. I don't think it will come down to how many games he wins in X (weeks) timeframe, I think it will come down to do the players back him? I assume Woods does, and I have no idea about the others, but if I was a betting man, I'd punt a replacement is being sourced, and that could get very messy, because I don't think Wests are in a position to pay out a coach (Taylor), and be bringing in a new 1 in the same year.
SSTID_1970
Roar Rookie
Damn Vincent you have TOO MUCH time on your hands if you are spending your time watching Peruvian talk shows! Bahahahahahaha Hey if I have to live with Souths supporters typing Farrah instead of Farah you can suck it up too. I don't mind mistakes here and there if there are good ideas behind them. What a person says is worth more points in my book in any case. Particularly when they can think outside the box and not just stick to the safe and predictable mainstream views. I prefer an original opinion over one lifted off a news feed (not saying that relates to you though) but lighten up mate, let's have some laughs and some serious discussions we all left school behind a loooong time ago, too late now to try and change someone. You better get back to your painting Vincent before you lose the other ear. Silvertail has a sharp beak and a short fuse and he might mistake your ear for a chip!
Gus Paella
Guest
Enjoyed the article Tom, I have to say though I believe one of the bigger flaws in the Dragons side is that they have Josh Dugan. That is not to say that Dugan is a bad player, but if there is any team in the comp that can't afford an injury plagued, rep player with zero attacking stats... it's St. George. I people will point to his kick return stats but that just shows he runs a lot without passing the ball. He is not a threat with ball in hand like the successful modern day fullbacks and I would argue that he may be more successful elsewhere. One more thing, you are overrating Tariq Sims. Cheers
eels47
Roar Rookie
I wouldn't mind seeing Rip Taylor get a run in first grade.
Big Daddy
Guest
I think the 3 under the hammer will be Barrett. Brown and McGregor. Penrith gave him the punt pretty quickly when they found he was going to manly. Also he comes from the Laurie Daley school of coaching. McGregor has had far too long and he has a weaker squad from last year. Good forwards, horrible backs. Brown is on a hiding to nothing and also has a weaker squad. Could see rip Taylor replacing him
Albo
Guest
Gotta agree that Tooves was badly treated ! But even he would have struggled to make an impression with that Manly squad and the injuries their main men were carrying ! I wouldn't be blaming all that on Barrett ! Give him a go ! They have recruited OK I think . Blake Green should fit in well and the T brothers back to fitness hold the key. They are a chance of the 8.
Stuart McLennan
Expert
I don't believe Taylor will go. It wont't be so much about the performance but the strong relationship he has with those that matter at the Tigers and the need for stability at the club.
Cadfael
Roar Guru
I think Taylor and Barrett will be given this season. If no improvements, they will go.I think Hasler will last the season as he is off contract at the end of 2017 when he will leave. The Dragons have had good forwards over the years and 2017 is no exception. However, they have performed poorly as a team and I can't see a positive change. McGregor to be the first to go probably before the end of June. Newcastle have shown that a losing side is not acceptable. Brown needs to have the team winning otherwise he will be looking for a new position.
Dean - Surry Hills
Guest
Tom 'Solid' Rock - Here's your tune - It's still one of the best productions to be born of our shores. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ri14ldqYNso