2017 AFL preview series: Carlton Blues - 17th

Col - See Cripps is named for the Saints game this weekend - I am tipping he will only play a half but it is a positive all the same - should be in tip top form by round 1. Even with him back it looks like a big loss for the blues given Jack Silvagni, Marc Murphy, Bryce Gibbs, Sam Petrevski-Seton, Kade Simpson, Matthew Kreuzer, Sam Docherty & Levi Casboult are all out of the side

I'm a big fan of Phillips, but his injuries are becoming concerning. Seems to have the talent and athletic ability to be a very good ruckman, but probably more so if he were the sole ruckman. Not only has he had to share ruck duties every time he's played, but he's also had a couple of injury concerns which isn't doing his cause any good.

"compete within the next two to three years for a flag but you would think best case scenario for Carlton is 4-5 years." If the blues got Fyfe for the trade mentioned above a team boasting a starting midfield of Fyfe, Cripps, Gibbs and Murphy will be pretty competitive and 2 more years of development into the roughly a dozen draftee's in the last 2 years (6 picks inside the top 30) plus the likes of Marchbank and Pickett and a couple more top 10 draft picks it isn't ridiculous to think they won't be far away. I am not saying this will happen just that with such a young list and with the blues looking to add someone like Fyfe it is impossible to say where the blues will be in 2 years.

But to do that, they will have to offer a massive salary such that Freo don't match it. Carlton presumably have plenty of cap space but they will still want to leave some room for other signings. The reality is that most quality RFAs will be traded - albeit for less value than they are worth eg Dangerfield. Probably something like Carlton's 1st (probably number one or two pick) and their second (pick 19) for Freo's first (let's say pick 8). The funny thing about these sorts of deals is that only developing clubs will have the pick currency to get a trade done but for such clubs these players often aren't really appropriate for them. The above trade is a bargain for clubs looking to compete within the next two to three years for a flag but you would think best case scenario for Carlton is 4-5 years.

Agree with your post Steve009 but if it was line ball between Pickett and Kerridge I hope the go for Pickett.

Col - As an aside the word f..l was what got your post stuck in moderation. On SPS I think they might be targeting the VFL practice match the week after Freo asw a return date for him but I think that would be enough for him to be picked round 1. I expect we will get belted this weekend but I think blues supporters will walk away very happy.

Thanks Aransan, all good points you make ( what is it with comments under moderation as it seems to be happening often). As far as Weitering goes Bolton has stated today that he would love for Weitering to become a swingman at some point in his career but acknowledges that due to his age it is best to let him develop as a defender. In relation to McKay I have n doubt he will be playing VFL this year but could possibly be given a couple of senior games later in the season. It is not as if Carlton are going to be challenging for a finals spot. Macca, I agree that all our draftees have that excitement about them and can't wait to see some more of them given a run this weekend. It is going to be a young side against the Saints with our game against the Dockers giving us a better look at what our team for the first game will be. Hopefully Cripps and SPS can get a run in that game.

Aransan - Your analysis of forwards is pretty good and it is why I think the blues got it absolutely right last year - Charlie Curnow has great size and elite endurance and Silvagni seems to cover the ground well and is a natural footballer - they seem to fit into the more modern forward role perfectly roaming high up the ground and outworking their opponent back - but they complimented them with the big forward in McKay - none will dominate the comp this year and they will develop at different rates but they are a good combination.

Col, I was hoping to reply to your post but it appears to be still stuck in moderation. I have a few thoughts on forwards: 1) Teams have worked out ways of countering power forwards such as Cloke and Hawkins, the $700k power forward is now more like $300k. Tom Boyd was recruited as a million dollar power forward but has had to adjust and is now a million dollar ruck/forward. This change in the way the game is played has happened quite quickly. Power forwards used to take some time to develop, I believe Hawkins took about 5 pre-seasons before he could handle the training load. 2) As an Essendon supporter I am confident of our forward line this year as we have 3 'natural' goal kickers in Fantasia, Begley and Greene and we haven't been in this position for years. Daniher, Cloke, Riewoldt, Casboult are not 'natural' goal kickers and their kicking for goal has to be 'manufactured'. I do expect Daniher to improve his goal kicking but it will always be problematic. I doubt if Weitering is a natural goal kicker, if he had been that would have become clear before he was drafted. 3) The position of centre half forward (CHF) has to a significant extent disappeared. In times past Bontempelli would have been playing at CHF, just like the power forward teams have worked out ways of countering this focal point. Bontempelli has been successful in developing his endurance and is now a midfielder/key forward. Weitering would take a couple of years to develop this kind of endurance and I am not sure he will ever develop endurance to a significant extent -- he won't need to if he stays on the backline and doesn't go into the midfield. 4) I have had a number of debates over the last year with Macca on Harry McKay which I don't wish to repeat. I believe Harry and Ben McKay of North Melbourne are identical twin brothers with a Xmas eve birthday. These guys are very big and just missed out going into the next draft by 8 days. In my opinion it would be best to consider both brothers as commencing their first year in the AFL this season, and they will take a lot of development. There is a lot of pressure on Harry because he was a high draft pick -- sometimes this can be an illusion. Carlton obviously wanted to draft Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay in the 2015 draft and that is the order I would have put them in. I am sure Curnow would have wanted to go to Carlton and could have given them very good intelligence on the interest of other clubs. Carlton reversed the draft selection order because of the belief that otherwise Adelaide would have drafted Harry and they were confident Curnow would have dropped through to their next selection. Essendon did the same in the 2014 draft by picking Langford at 17, otherwise Carlton would have taken him, and Laverde at 20 -- I think the natural order was the reverse. McKay needs time to develop and the expectations of some Carlton supporters verges on the desperate in my opinion. Keep checking on how Ben McKay is going, I would expect the twin brothers to develop at about the same rate.

Col ” Bolton’s not a f..l, he will let Weitering develop as a defender” I agree with this but would add that the blues would want Weitering, Marchbank, Plowman and Docherty to play together as much as possible to get that level of familiarity with each other that every great backline needs. “I would love to see SPS in action as I think he has excitement written all over him as does Pickett and LeBois” Again I agree completely but I think all the draftees have that excitement because all of them have the ingredients we have been missing speed combined with good ball use. I am really looking forward to this weekends game because it appears the side will be very young and these players should get full games and plenty of opportunity to grab a spot. I reckon Fisher and Pickett especially could make a case that makes it very hard to leave them out of round 1.

Col " Bolton’s not a fool, he will let Weitering develop as a defender" I agree with this but would add that the blues would want Weitering, Marchbank, Plowman and Docherty to play together as much as possible to get that level of familiarity with each other that every great backline needs. "I would love to see SPS in action as I think he has excitement written all over him as does Pickett and LeBois" Again I agree completely but I think all the draftees have that excitement because all of them have the ingredients we have been missing speed combined with good ball use. I am really looking forward to this weekends game because it appears the side will be very young and these players should get full games and plenty of opportunity to grab a spot. I reckon Fisher and Pickett especially could make a case that makes it very hard to leave them out of round 1.

Where does the untried talent fit in? That is the key question we are all waiting to find out the answer to. We will soon have that answer. Graham and Boekhorst both need to lift or be forever assigned to the seconds. Both have shown promise but neither has delivered consistently. Give Marchbank some time in the preseason games to prove himself worthy of a spot and if he does, swap him for Rowe. Rowe has a good set of hands but he seems slow and unsure of himself to me. My prediction would be around 14th or 15th this year with a couple of upsets, but then I am an eternal optimist.

It was a joke cam, you say he isn't going anywhere while it has been customary for our leading GOP kicker to be given the boot.

Regarding SPS. I hope he is not put under too much pressure to perform this season and he and the other recruits are made to earn their spot through hard work and performing in the VFL. This was a point Bolton made last year. Their is no sense of entitlement because they were a high draft pick.

You have written a nice article here. I agree with the vast majority of what you have said. I agree with Macca that your team doesn't have enough youth in it though. To answer your question about whether the forward line can contain all 4 of Dennis Armfield, Rhys Palmer, Liam Sumner and Jed Lamb I can say, No. There is not enough talent there. There are other more talented options available like Pickett, LeBois and Polson. Even tiny Fisher in a pocket is preferential to two of those 4 lesser skilled albeit more experienced smalls. We need our small forwards to manufacture goals from nothing due to our forward half deficiencies and you need talent to do that. I also think you were too harsh on Andrew Phillips. He was arguably Carlton's most improved player last year and we all know how long ruckman normally take to come of age. Usually around 100 games or 25 years of age. Phillips is now 25 and has only played 30 AFL games. He is tracking very well. Also Marchbank is a certain starter in my opinion. Probably Pickett too. A word on Bolton gifting games for those commenting on it above. I think Bolton was desperate to see out new draftees in the senior team last year and while not being gifted games they it only took a few decent games in the VFL to warrant selection. I'm sure the same will be done this year. A few good games on the trot for the Northern Blues will warrant selection for out new draftees. Nice article, Well done.

I'll go by their performance over the full 2016 season over 1 JLT game, but unless they've been eating pies all summer Wright and Kerridge are definitely in Carlton's best 22. Sure they may not be blessed with the same talent as alot of our new acquisition's, but last year they both set a great example on field of the effort required to compete at AFL level. Let the youngster's earn their spot from these 2. Pushing them aside to gift games to players with upside sets a poor example in my mind.

I think he plays the whole season, and I have some faith he will make some sort of contribution this year, or at least be better than last year.. McKay will only play around a dozen games as he matures and finds his feet, and Curnow is more midfield bound than pure forward. So basically he will play because there is no one else to fill his role this year, especially with injuries to Phillips and Gorringe delaying their starts to the season If Weitering spends time forward he cannot play the CHF role as yet, so its cross your fingers boys and see if Sav can work some magic.

Steve, Aransan I did write a reply to you but for some reason it is awaiting moderation for why I do not know.

Well I'll defiantly run against the grain here, I think Weitering can develop into a Nick Riewolt type CHF, and if good CHB' are hard to come by, good CHF's are rare as hen's teeth. I take Aransan's point about giving him time to mature so he can take the punishment handed out to forwards, and he will be a massive asset in the back half this year as the defence will be under the pump all season. But for mine his future in forward of centre, just not this year.