Essendon were the easiest side to predict last year, while this time around they are clearly one of the biggest mysteries of the upcoming season.
With 12 players serving drug suspensions, the vast majority of which were part of their best 22, the Dons were a lock to finish in the bottom two or three, and most probably the wooden spoon, which is how it panned out.
Most of the suspended players return, but it remains to be seen how many of them will be part of the Bombers’ best side. It should be at least six, and perhaps up to seven or eight. Michael Hibberd has departed to Melbourne.
Essendon Bombers’ best 22
| B | Mark Baguley | Mitch Brown | Matt Dea |
| HB | Martin Gleeson | Michael Hurley | Brent Stanton |
| C | Brendon Goddard | Jobe Watson | David Zaharakis |
| HF | Ben Howlett | Cale Hooker | Aaron Francis |
| F | Travis Colyer | Joe Daniher | Orazio Fantasia |
| Foll | Matthew Leuenberger | Dyson Heppell | Zach Merrett |
| Int | Darcy Parish | Andrew McGrath | James Kelly | Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti |
Emergencies: James Stewart, Craig Bird, David Myers
Now, Essendon are a mix of the old (Jobe Watson, Brent Stanton, Brendon Goddard, James Kelly) and the new (Andrew McGrath, Darcy Parish, Aaron Francis, Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti). There are stars coming back from suspension (Michael Hurley, Dyson Heppell, Cale Hooker), and those that thrived in their absence (Zach Merrett, Orazio Fantasia, Michael Hartley, Matt Dea).
The backline looks light-on for star quality outside Hurley, particularly with Hooker’s anticipated move to the forward-line, denying the Bombers potentially the most formidable key defensive duo in the league.
But, coach John Worsfold does have plenty of backline options. Outside the players named in the back six above, but still in the best 22, Goddard, Kelly, McDonald-Tipungwuti and McGrath will all likely run through there at various stages. Patrick Ambrose and Hartley may get called upon too.
Essendon’s engine room may look imposing if taking the names on paper at their career peak, but how likely is this to be the case?
Zach Merrett is a star, and will only get better. He’s the one given. Heppell was slightly overrated before his year off, but is still a very good player and will be hungry. Goddard is still effective, but his days as a game-breaker are long gone.
Zaharakis will enjoy having more experienced support around him once more, but it’s been a long time since he looked like he was enjoying his footy. Ben Howlett and Heath Hocking are hardened, but are no more than honest battlers who may be on the fringes anyway.
Jobe Watson will retire a champion player and noble statesman of the game, irrespective of his Brownlow medal being stripped away, but was looking a yard off the pace before he went down injured in 2015. It is entirely possible the mental strain of the entire drugs saga had taken too big a toll, and hopefully he can be fresh and firing again. Question marks must linger though.
It would be folly to expect full 22-game seasons from the returning players. Some will suffer injuries as their bodies once more adapt to the rigours of an AFL season. Others will have niggles they just can’t shake, which will affect performance. Not all will come back chock full of confidence they can do what they once did.
Kicking a regular winning score will be a struggle for the Dons, even if they move the ball forward with more purpose than in Worsfold’s first year.
Joe Daniher has special talents, but will always be erratic. Better and more frequent delivery to him will help, and if he’s not kicking 50-plus goals this season, he will have failed.
Travis Colyer and Orazio Fantasia will add bite at ground level where they can. Josh Green will try and force his way into the side, and knows how to kick multiple goals. He also has experience trying to manufacture scoring opportunities in struggling sides.
Looking at Essendon’s best side, there is a gap in the list profile, which can be traced back to the off-season of 2014.
Adam Cooney, James Gwilt and Jonathon Giles were acquired from other clubs but are no longer at the Bombers. Kyle Langford and Jayden Laverde were both top-20 picks but are currently on Kenny Rogers’ train bound for nowhere. Perhaps ‘The Gambler’ will be backing these players to rise up a few levels, but not many others will.
Even looking back to the end of 2013, the Dons traded for Paul Chapman, Shaun Edwards and Kurt Aylett, all of whom are gone with little to no value added. In fact, they haven’t had a trade ‘hit’ since Adam McPhee back in 2002.
The club has been committing to neither one thing nor the other, and while the drugs saga has made things more difficult, the lack of clarity and purpose may hurt them now.
So while the Bombers have some things in their favour coming into the 2017 season, they also have several things against. The returning players are a double-edged sword.
Every football fan is glad the drugs saga is behind Essendon and the competition, and this is the year the Bombers completely reintegrate into the competition. This season can be used to find out where they sit in the overall pecking order of the competition, and they’ll have to make some hard decisions at the end of it as to what the future looks like.
Predicted ladder spread: 13th-16th
Predicted finish: 15th
Best and fairest: Zach Merrett
Leading goalkicker: Joe Daniher
All-Australian potential: Michael Hurley, Zach Merrett
Rising Star candidates: Aaron Francis, Andrew McGrath
Cam Rose’s AFL preview series ladder
15th – Essendon
16th – North Melbourne
17th – Carlton
18th – Brisbane
Aransan
Guest
Cameron, I agree with you on Gleeson and Bellchambers. I think you are very harsh on Laverde and Langford, Laverde missed a number of games last year after breaking his collar-bone and Langford spent a few games in the VFL to learn some of the tricks required for playing in the midfield. These were both second year players and the load being carried by the younger players was immense given the circumstances and Worsfold handled this very well with rotations. A very big play was made by St. Kilda for Laverde. These two young players were excellent draft selections and are definitely in Essendon's best 22.
Cameron Rose
Expert
All good points Graeme. I'm a fan of Gleeson, whereas Myers is just a jobber. I know Bellchambers has been beset by injuries, but he is a shell of the player he was. I hope for the best for Laverde and Langford, but neither was able to cement a spot last year, and now there are a host of returnees to contend with. Either way, Essendon are an evolving list, and internally, I reckon there'd be 30 players who think they are best 22. There are going to be some disappointed boys come Round 1.
Graeme
Roar Rookie
Thanks for this Cameron. Picking the Bombers best 22 and predicted finish pre season is like playing darts blindfolded. I reckon you've done well with the team and its hard to argue with much of it. But, assuming everyone is available, Id have Bellchambers on the bench, Hartley as FB with Brown on the bench, Myers at HB instead of Gleeson and Langford as a lock in. I reckon he was really stiff not to get a Rising Star nomination in Round 23 v Carlton and Laverde needs an extended run but will be a cert this time next year. McGrath could be a star but even as No. 1 pick I don't think he's in the best 22 yet. So; Ins: Hartley, Bellchambers, Myers, Langford . Outs: McGrath, Howlett, Kelly, Gleeson We'll have to agree to disagree on the drafting. I think since 2013 they've done really well. Merrett and Fantasia at 26 & 55 were great pickups, Langford and Laverde were top 20 picks in 2014 for good reason and in 2015 they had 7 picks, of whom 4 are in my best 22, injuries have stopped Redman and Morgan showing much and only Eades has been a miss.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Thanks Lofty. Yep, a mysterious quantity this year, the Dons. As Josh commented above, people are entitled to think they will push for finals. Heppell's a good player, don't get me wrong, but wasn't a gun yet. May still get there.
Cameron Rose
Expert
To me he's a forward dud who played okay when shifted back. If I'm a key forward, I'm licking my lips seeing him come my way.
Aransan
Guest
Cameron, Ambrose had a very good year last year when switched to the backline. He is a good match up for a forward with a lot of endurance.
Sausages
Guest
God I hope they win no games this year, or if they do it is only one against Melbourne.
Aransan
Guest
Ian, I believe McGrath will play in most games this year, otherwise I agree with everything you have said.
Lofty
Guest
Well written article again. Your last paragraph covered their situation spot on. With the Blues and Lions you pretty much know what you will get but the Bombers have so many unknowns. They have a good coach in Worsfold but we will see how he goes this year balancing the returning players and the young talent. Although I don't see a lot of Essendon games [I live in WA] what I have seen of Heppell has been very good. He was quite young when the saga first started which would not have helped his development.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Thanks PD. They are a very interesting case, the Dons, and as you say, it will be interesting to assess Worsfold's game plan this year.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Yeah, it's certainly a fair take. I was more bullish about them a while back, but started to slow down the closer I got to writing this series. They just kept falling. As I say, they're a mystery. So just to clarify, I've got North and Essendon bottom four, and you've got them top four, yes?
Cameron Rose
Expert
Ha, gold Josh. Thanks Birdman. I'll have to check out the AFLW piece.
Cameron Rose
Expert
All solid points Ian. I don't mind Hartley, I was swapping and changing between him and Brown. Thought Brown offered more versatility, in that he could swap with Hooker. Ambrose is no good.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Yeah, I think that's a fair summation. Any team I've got from 9th to 14th wouldn't shock me if they made the eight.
Pope Paul VII
Guest
tops
Pumping Dougie
Roar Guru
Good article Cam. Very hard to predict where Essendon will finish, with so many unknowns about how the returning players will perform and how the whole side will mesh together. Plus, Worsfold's final years at West Coast suggested to me he was falling behind the eight ball a bit, as far as game strategy. He's done a great job with Essendon, but his strengths have been in player management, player development and club leadership. I think his matchday coaching nous in today's game, now that he has a decent team to work with, is another unknown. I don't know much about Hartley and Laverde, but from what I read about them last year I would assume like other posters here they would be in Essendon's best 22, particularly Hartley ahead of Brown. Keep the articles coming, they're great.
Ryan Buckland
Expert
I'll put a ladder out on the Wednesday before opening night I reckon. My method these days is a hybrid of spreadsheet and guts...
Josh
Expert
Don't think our opinions on the Dons could be further apart Cam, unless maybe if they were somehow also North Melbourne. I'll write up my thoughts in more detail at some point but short version is they were a finals side in 2014 I think still have most of the best talent from that time + a bunch of youthers ready to lift + most important a gun coach, for the first time (bar the 2014 Thompson one-off) for the first time since Sheedy.
Josh
Expert
Cat
Roar Guru
I can start some supplements BS if you prefer. Easy to rile up the delusional apologists.