April 16th, 2006. The North Queensland Cowboys had continued one of the most impressive starts to a season in the game’s history by beating the previously undefeated Newcastle Knights 18-16 in a top of the table clash, at Newcastle no less.
Punters fell all over themselves to put their money down on what seemed like a sure thing, and that was a North Queensland premiership.
Having lost the grand final to the Wests Tigers the previous season, the Cowboys had seemingly returned a much stronger football team, and would go on to avenge their loss. Or so it seemed.
The following week, the Cowboys’ luck ran out against the Sharks, and they never recovered. They didn’t finish as Minor Premiers. They didn’t even make the top eight at all.
When the Sydney Roosters were placed as equal Premiership favourites for 2017 following their 20-6 victory over the Rabbitohs in the opening game of Round 4, for me it was more of a danger sign than it was confirmation that 2017 would be there year.
Sure, opening with four consecutive victories is a lot better than the four defeats they suffered in the opening rounds last season, but a look through the history book suggests that a loss early on can prove crucial in a side’s development, provided they learn from it.
The aforementioned example of the Cowboys in 2006 is an illustration of what happens when a team’s seemingly never-ending run is interrupted and it negatively impacts a side’s momentum, but it also works the other way. Sometimes teams must learn how to lose first, and it is often the lessons taken from such losses that serve them the most later on.
When fans think of a Bulldogs versus Roosters game from 2004, it is inevitable that the first game one thinks of is the 2004 grand final in which Canterbury-Bankstown prevailed 16-13, and rightfully so.
However, there was another game between the two arch-rivals much earlier in the season which ultimately proved to be a decisive factor in the Bulldog’s Premiership victory.
Going into the season, the ‘Dogs were backed heavily to win the Premiership, and their odds were only shortened following two early victories over the Eels and Sharks.
Despite a less than convincing display in the latter fixture, the underwhelming performance was largely overlooked as the team’s confidence, and that of their fans, seemed to be at an all time high.
Their next game was an important one on the calendar; a titanic battle with fellow competition heavyweights the Roosters in Round 3.
Everyone predicted that it would be a close affair, and whoever won would go a long way to cementing their positions as Premiership favourites. It was sure to be a classic match destined to be remembered as among the best of the season. It wasn’t.
Instead, the Rooster’s were easy victors, to the tune of 35-0. Perhaps the Bulldogs weren’t as great as they seemed. Suddenly, their weaknesses in the previous two games were amplified, and their confidence no doubt took a hit.
Everyone began to question whether they could be competitive come September after having been so convincingly defeated by the best team in the competition. So what did the Bulldogs do? They worked even harder. Now they had been confronted with the knowledge that they weren’t at the level required to compete – at least consistently – with the upper echelon, and they needed a lot of improvement before they got there.
Would the Bulldogs still have won the 2004 Premiership without losing to the Roosters in Round 3? We can’t know. Yet I have no doubt that it did ultimately help to create a much hardened football team who capitalised on their own mistakes, and never got too comfortable.
In a competition as intense and ruthless as the NRL, it is complacency that can often be a side’s downfall.
Granted, the Roosters have managed to remain undefeated at a time when competition points are more valuable and harder to come by than ever before. However impressive this may be, the Roosters have not produced the kind of football necessary to win the Premiership.
Although they have notched victories over some tough opposition, in particular against the Panthers last Saturday night, none of them were especially convincing. Their win over South Sydney was not as dominant as expected against a lethargic side, and they came up with poor decisions and mistakes at various stages in the game for which they would be punished by better sides.
Despite this, they were almost unanimously praised after the game in a way which indicated their performance had been more dominant than it really was.
The other undefeated team in the competition, the Melbourne Storm, are far and away the better football team, and I’d dare say that a clash between the two clubs would result in a walkover for the Victorian side.
This is not to say the Roosters aren’t still contenders, because they very much are. But it is important for them not to look too far in the horizon – namely at the first Sunday of October.
Perhaps a loss in the next couple of weeks may be of greater benefit to the Roosters in the long term for it is crucial that they don’t allow their weakness to become overshadowed to the point of being overlooked.
Earning the title of Premiership favourites becomes far more difficult as the season progresses. Just ask the Cowboys of 2006.
LIDCOMBE OVAL
Guest
it said they were tries on the scoreboard and in the paper - so I will take that as a fact
LIDCOMBE OVAL
Guest
Bookies made them favourites- like a lot of teams they(Roosters) need to improve in all areas to be in a position to even make the 8 and to challenge what I would see as being the top 5 teams in 2017 for the premiership- Sharks/Storm/Cowboys/Bronco's/Raiders. I know Penrith were tipped to win the comp too - they(Roosters) are like the other 10 teams who are behind these 5 teams in ability/skill and especially game management(Storm best at that/Cows second). Long way to go Don't know if the Roosters have an easy draw as all games are hard and teams cannot be complacent in any case no matter who they play and where they are on the table
Steve
Guest
Good article but if we go back to the 2004 Easts were the better team that year and should have won the comp if not for El Masri's double movement so yes Bulldogs grew from that earlier defeat by Easts but they were very lucky that night and in today's game that try wouldn't have been given. Easts are playing well but it's only round 4. Still think the Storm a better side. One thing I will say is that jeez Roosters fans are everywhere these days.. Everywhere I go these days for work there's Roosters fans and are so excited about this year. Good luck to them I guess..
JVGO
Guest
Physically and athletically the Roosters are easily the most talented team in the comp but Cameron Smith on his own has a higher football IQ than the entire Roosters team put together. They are just a little dumb and prone to stupid errors and decisions. Not to mention what happens when dogs or women or booze are around.
Nayfo
Guest
The Roosters also had a number of stars out too. Friend, Taukeiaho, Fergusson and Kane Evans. All i hear is "Souths had players out" Blah Blah Blah
James Ditchfield
Roar Rookie
I'm not claiming the Roosters' loss to the Bulldogs can be directly attributed to that result, and said as much in the article. I am just of the belief that it helped the Bulldogs identify weaknesses on their game which they worked on and helped them to become a better football team. Thanks for reading.
Superspud
Roar Rookie
SKD comes to notice due to his errors but he is a vital part of the Roosters. His work coming out of trouble is the best in the competition. He won't be getting dropped anytime soon. As good as Toops is going this year him Ferguson and SKD are all off contract I think left wing is where Manu will be next season.
ChristopherGrant
Guest
Hahahahaha, Yes.. I forgot, there were no other 50/50 or close decisions in either game, other than those 2 passes... Please, keep your embarrassing response for your mates at the pub...
The Barry
Roar Guru
I'm getting misty eyed thinking about 04 after yesterday's effort. Streisand in the background ?? Me-e-e-e-morieeeeeeees....?
Mushi
Guest
I think it's a long bow to draw to attribute the Rooster's loss to the doggies in 04 because they smashed them many months earlier. Walker and hodges played like rubbish in the second half and it was also hardly some great upset, the Dogs were a great side that had lost something like only 1 of its games during the back end of the season
Wolly
Roar Guru
Happy as I am with a 4-0 start realistically our wins haven't been all that convincing even though we've played average opposition. Hopefully the lads can build on their defensive effort against the bunnies and really cut down that error rate because the Storm, Cowboys, Sharks and a few other teams will punish us if we don't.
Roy
Guest
The guy who wrote this article either hates Easts or is a Storm supporter. This Roosters team is a very well coached side that has all positions covered, they can only beat who's in front of them. Easts beat Penrith and scored 3 tries to 1 in the process. Next week they play a Manly team who have just flogged the Dogs, If the Roosters play well, I fear for Manly next Friday.
The Barry
Roar Guru
I didn't mean to be harsh on Liu. He was good the other night. The reason I omitted him isn't that he's not a good player but that he's a fairly standard sort of bench forward while the other three bring really varied skill sets into the game. Taukieaho still to come back too... Manu must be putting some pressure on SKD, he's all class. Agree about Guerra. He was also called on to lead the pack last year and I think his form suffered a bit and was maybe carrying injuries. Now he's back to more of a support role and he's better for it.
Hard Yards
Roar Rookie
I had tipped Souths in an upset the other night, although saying that Easts had looked sharp this year. So much for me. The Roosters are a very tidy unit, but not of lot of the blowtorch applied to them yet though.
Mike from tari
Guest
Beat Panthers on a forward pass & their last try against Souths was also forward, so not really convincing at present.
Emcie
Roar Guru
And a couple years ago (2015 i think) six rounds into the season the tigers and dragons were "unbeatable". I honestly don't understand how the "contenders and pretenders" can be seperated anytime before origin.
Oingo Boingo
Guest
Yep , give or take a bounce of the ball and a refs decision,we could be looking at a very different 8 at the moment. And I agree ,the roosters have learn to lock games down and I think against the Wabbits they demonstrated an ability to do that . I'm not booking flights and hotel rooms just yet but I feel a lot better about the Chookies than I did this time last year .
Oingo Boingo
Guest
Yep , who'd have thought limiting the ability of convicted criminals to enter your country was a good idea ....just dumbfounding.
Dutski
Roar Guru
Funnily enough TB the bench player that stood out for me last night was the only one you didn't mention. Isaac Liu i think has felt like a backrower playing prop, but was huge last night- really charging forward. I also think Guerra has simplified his game, not trying to do too much apart from run straight and tackle and he looks better for it.
Dutski
Roar Guru
I think you're right Rossco. The second half performances have been more of a worry, but if they can defend their line like that it doesn't matter quite so much.