Here at The Roar we won’t pussyfoot around, even while others do. I’ll say it straight: Hawthorn are gone.
Going back to late last year, the Hawks have lost five of their last six games, with the win coming over Collingwood by a point in the final minute. The end isn’t coming. It’s already here.
You’ll hear things like “I’m not prepared to write them off just yet” and “you can never write off a champion team”.
Actually, you can write off a champion team when they’re too old, too slow, and not nearly as good, fluent or skillful as they used to be.
Alastair Clarkson claims to have the players on his list to win another premiership, but it’s doubtful he believes it. Those at club land often can’t see the forest for the trees, but Clarkson has shown nothing but 20/20 vision in his time at the helm of the Hawks. He’s certainly not talking about this year.
The question is whether unceremoniously dumping Sam Mitchell and Jordan Lewis was part of a carefully crafted master plan, or a drowning man looking for a vine and clutching a snake. Jaegar O’Meara and Tom Mitchell were to be acquired whatever the cost.
Disposal for disposal and clearance for clearance, Tom Mitchell and O’Meara are over-delivering against the output of the veterans they have effectively replaced, and will likely continue to do so. Mitchell is a ball magnet who is relishing the chance to lead a midfield. O’Meara will get better as the season goes on.
But T. Mitchell lacks the absolute polish and gamecraft of S. Mitchell or Lewis, particularly given the precision style Hawthorn tries to play, while O’Meara is coming from a long way back.
The Hawks only have four players aged 30 and older, but at their peak they were all crucial performers of high standing in the AFL world, and irreplaceable.
Josh Gibson is a dual best and fairest winner in premiership years, but has lost crucial speed. Luke Hodge is the inspirational triple premiership captain who can’t shape games as he once did. Shaun Burgoyne has been the clutch performer in countless close games and big matches, but looks a step behind in the early part of this season. Hunger is an issue for all.
Jarryd Roughead is the new skipper, but has looked exactly as rusty as could be expected from a man who has missed a year of football fighting cancer. His best footy is in the past, not the future.
Hawthorn have played 18 finals since the start of 2011. That’s almost an extra season of footy played at a higher intensity than regular home and away games. It must take a toll. It has taken a toll. Bodies take a battering. Hunger disappears.
Grant Birchall is an old 29, and has a broken jaw to show for it. Isaac Smith and Liam Shiels were another two beaten up by Adelaide last Saturday, and ended the game limping. The Hawks used to be the enforcers, but are now the bullied.
James Frawley will start struggling more as the team around him does. Paul Puopolo’s influence will be diminished with his midfield not generating high quality inside 50s.
Smith, Shiels and Ben Stratton’s limitations are starting to show. Cyril Rioli hasn’t turned up two games in, and appears to be struggling for motivation. Ben McEvoy isn’t in the top dozen ruckmen in the competition.
Taylor Duryea and Ryan Schoenmakers are premiership players in their mid-twenties, and were dropped after Round 1. A lot of AFL players are made to look better by the quality around them, and some of them even get a medal out of it.
James Sicily and Billy Hartung both turned 22 in January, and were expected to step up this year, but were also dropped after one game. There’s still hope for Sicily, but it will be a surprise if Hartung ever truly makes it. He’s four years in, is one of the most outside players in the competition in a side screaming for run, and he still can’t nail down a spot. The penny should have dropped by now.
Hawthorn’s premiership success under Alastair Clarkson was built on pristine ball movement off the back of the 18 players on the field moving as a single-celled organism in both attack and defence.
Last year, opposition teams were beating the Hawks at the coal-face, denying them first opportunity to gain access to the ball. Now, even if they do win it, they’re unable to control the ball as they once did. Will Langford could barely cut ribbon to ribbons, let alone opposition sides.
Hawthorn have worse players than they did at their peak, either through the old age of those that took them to glory, or the inexperience of those that have replaced the players that are gone.
2017 is the year of speed and pressure. The Hawks don’t have any of the former, and are struggling to both apply and withstand the latter.
Of those that made the finals last year, Hawthorn will only be better than North this year, and that’s a maybe. Essendon showed in Round 1 they have overtaken them. Melbourne has certainly gone past them. St Kilda too. Port appears to be have the right stuff again.
Will the Hawks be playing finals? Possibly, because anything is, but unlikely. In fact, let’s face it, it’s not going to happen. A premiership this year? No chance.
Birdman
Guest
Haha - I was a foetus when the Hawks won their first flag in 1961 so I guess I've been alive for all of them :)
Cat
Roar Guru
I wish Ishank Smiss would have kicked the goal. Would much rather have been on the soft side of the draw.
New York Hawk
Guest
Ultimately, who cares about finals in 2017 of you are a Hawks supporter? It is about the journey of the rebuild to the next flag. All you other supporters who may have seen a flag in your lifetime if you are lucky don't realize that unless you win the flag, who cares? Which is why 2012 is such a bad year for us Hawks supporters. Most of you consider your team making the finals a success. Ha! I have been very fortunate to see eight (8) flags won in Grand Finals, nine have been won in my lifetime (I didn't see then '83 flag as I was only 4) and we were re reigning premiers when I was born in '79. When it is all said and done, we are all looking for the next GF/Premiership high, and that will take a few years for us and will include a bunch of new names, lost of whom we don't know today. Go Hawks!
New York Hawk
Guest
If the Crows did anything someone would be impressed...
New York Hawk
Guest
This is as meaningless comment as could be posted: "anything could have happened"...
New York Hawk
Guest
Couldn't agree more Birdman. People forget how much of an impact Roughie had all over the ground for the Hawks, and how that took pressure off Gunston, Mitchell, Hodge etc. Doubt we would have won the flag but we would have been in the prelim after beating the Cats :-)
New York Hawk
Guest
I fully agree with you Cam. The real killer has been the leadership, both on and off the field, but especially off the field. You can't expect to maintain your position at the top of the tree when you lose your president, CEO, head of football, several assistants and two senior players (one an all-time great still playing great footy). We need to rebuild over the next season on the field and off the field. The great thing about having won four premierships in the last decade is that us Hawks supporters have the patience for the rebuild. It will be very exciting to see the new talent come through to drive us to our next flag, and see us relocate to the amazing new facility in Dingley. Good times ahead, if challenging times in the immediate future. It is so much less stressful as a supporter having no expectations on winning games, as opposed to 2007-2016 when I expected us to win every game without exception. Well maybe not all those games against the Cats...
New York Hawk
Guest
Ahhhh, the old McClelland Trophy argument rears its head again! Priceless!!!
Birdman
Guest
you don;t even know if this story is true and yet you're damning Clarko for a lack of class - lol
Birdman
Guest
hmmmm......IIRC any compensation (picks) for a free agent comes from the AFL based on certain criteria, not the receiving club
Birdman
Guest
he would have got 8 if he was still in Hawks colours
Birdman
Guest
too early to call - Hale, Frawley and even Burgoyne stank in their first few games for Hawthorn - it takes time to learn a new system which is why Ty should be given a bit more time before he's judged a bust.
Lamby
Roar Rookie
Yes :-( As a Crows supporter with Hawks supporting older brother and best friend it has been a sad 11 years with 3 losing finals along the way! It should ease up this week....oh wait, this week we play Port!
DeanM
Guest
In the past 4 years the Hawks won 3 Premierships and were bundled out in week 2 of the finals series. A season includes finals and the final ladder for a year clearly shows that. Hawthorn finished ahead of Fremantle in all of the past 4 seasons. When did 1 season 2015 become a few seasons? Hawthorn finished ahead after the h&a series in 13,14,16 and 11, 12 if you want to go back further.
Matthew
Guest
I agree. Vickery was a bad purchase. He's too inept to the kinds of things that the Hawks need doing. As much as speed, the inability of any Hawk consistently to take a contested mark is extremely telling. I'm a Hawk supporter but I'm worried that Mr Cameron is right.
Chancho
Roar Rookie
I'm with you Cam, I seriously doubt they are a premiership side in 2017, but then again I don't think anyone really did. Finishing outside the 8, well that's another matter.. I still feel they have the quality of a top 8 side. A lot is being made of the loss of Mitchell and Lewis, but tend look at it another way; would we have won or performed better in those last 2 losses with them in the side? I think not. I just hope we can get some games into our younger crop, and I want Schoey to figure out if he's a good footy player or not (that guy bugs me... hes got the height/build to be a great footy player but is just missing that bit of mongrel to make him a threat).
Raimond
Roar Guru
Props to Cam Rose for telling it how it is -- The Roar's version of Mark Latham? [/sarc]
Raimond
Roar Guru
I got $5.75 on the NSW TAB
Raimond
Roar Guru
Jack Watts is just unbelievably bad.
Curly
Guest
I agree Cam. As a Cat supporter couldn't be happier than to see their decline but as a footy nut i must say i was surprised by their lack of fluency by foot and sloppiness by hand. O'Meara looked "tired" skill wise after a big JLT and one game and Tom Mitchell was criticised in his time at the Swans because of his poor disposal - number of possessions was never a question. I hope Roughy has a couple of blinders (not against us) and i think Gunston to a wing/high forward looks dangerous. Otherwise bring on the criticism of Little Lord Farquhar.