The running theme of the pre-season predictions was the disbelief among prognosticators in the ‘rule of two or three’ – every season for the last decade (and almost every season in history), either two or three teams in the finals one year dropped out and were replaced the next.
The on-staff writers warned us: it won’t be stagnant, folks. Of course North Melbourne is in rebuilding mode, but surely the other seven teams would be there again, we insisted. I mean, six of them won 16 games last season, and the seventh won the grand final!
Fast forward to today, and the ladder might look more reasonable turned on its head. Three of the last four competitors in the grand finals and a 2016 finalist are in the bottom four, and perennial bridesmaids Richmond and Port Adelaide sit comfortably in the top four.
Were the finals to start today, fully half of the teams competing in finals would be new, including Melbourne and 2016 wooden spoon Essendon.
So, what happened?
First of all, we’re only three rounds into the season. Essendon has played three teams whose combined records so far are 2-7, and one of those wins was against the Dons. My ELO-based metric has them as 58-point underdogs to Adelaide this weekend; if they give the Crows a challenge, then we can reconsider their qualifications.
Similarly, the Kangaroos have faced three teams that have amassed a 7-2 record and all sit comfortably within the top eight at the moment. Their play has been a pleasant surprise, and Shinboners can expect to see positive results very soon (although Western at Etihad this week is not exactly a punter’s delight).
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Secondly, if there was a second team that most of us (ahem – us) assumed would fall out of finals besides North, it was Hawthorn.
The signs were there. Besides the close calls last year, besides the quick exit in September, besides the desperate trades this off-season trying to make the team younger, the thing that caught up with Fremantle in 2016 caught up with the Hawks this year: a lack of speed.
Footy today is a fast man’s game, and nothing captures the problems Hawthorn faces better than the sequence in Sunday’s game where Adam Saad simply pulled away from a generally considered speedy Paul Puopolo in the back 50… And Puopolo simply gave up on the chase.
Mind you, he could have just been passing the chase over to his midfield teammates, but the bad look typified what was a very disorganised afternoon that longtime Alastair Clarkson followers must have watched with disbelief.
The lack of speed will be hard to cure – although if the Ross Lyon method in Fremantle this weekend is to be believed, replacing a third of your team with wet-behind-the-ears athletes might do the trick. But effort is never unfixable, as Gold Coast showed this week.
And that’s the third point: the teams who surprise with success (Tigers, Power, Bombers, sometimes the Lions, Crows, and Suns) are doing so by putting in the extra effort. Sometimes that manifests in clean teamwork; sometimes in fitness at the ends of quarters or games; sometimes it’s simply a matter of who wants those 50-50 balls more.
Similarly, the downfall of a handful of teams (either throughout the first 14 per cent of the season or in individual quarters or games) is the lack of energy, effort, enthusiasm, or importance placed on the performance. That’s one of the beauties of our league: teams are close enough in talent that while we think we know who should win, all it takes is for one team to care more than the other for the upset to occur.
And that’s a great lesson for all of us in every walk of life: the race may not always go to the swiftest or the strongest, but to the one who puts in the work necessary to overcome that lack of innate talent.
Weekly wanderings
Dustin Martin and Paddy Dangerfield are neck-and-neck atop the Player of the Year list that I keep along with my ELO team ratings.
POTY points are totals of as many different sources of voting and ratings I can gather. Close behind are Ollie Wines, Rory Sloane, and Scott Pendlebury, rounding out the top five.
As for the team ratings, Adelaide (81.2) and Greater Western Sydney (79.3) are ten points clear of the third-to-seventh place pack of teams behind them, which includes Port, Geelong, Sydney, Western, and West Coast. Hawthorn has dropped from eighth to a distant 13th.
For Round 4, the only two games on the upset alert from our ratings are Carlton giving Gold Coast a run (the Blues are favoured by a point in our rating system), and Collingwood upsetting St Kilda (we have them as a nine-point favourite!).
Last week the ‘roar’ was for the incredible marks taken throughout the league, the best being the one by Puopolo. This week, it was spectacular goals, the most spec being Daniel Riolo’s candy-showing banana from the right pocket for the Tigers that was more like an Eddie Betts special than anything Rioli’s kin would produce.
If Taylor Walker’s ‘captain’s goal’ against Port or Lance Franklin’s pair of 60-metre bombs two weeks back are any precedent, perhaps next week’s trend will be ‘nine pointers’ from the centre square!
Cat
Roar Guru
Can smell the butthurt in this one.
hawker
Guest
@ DH of course geelong are so structurally sound they're playing their best defender as a forward. Lonergan is on his last legs and Henderson is serviceable at best
hawker
Guest
what have geelong been able to do?? they are only relevant because the best player in the comp is a mama's boy who wanted to come home
Birdman
Guest
fair go DH, the kid's had two years out. you're really living up to your initials
Birdman
Guest
hmmm......Lewis at 23 was inconsistent to say the least. Hawks fans suffered him for quite a few sub par seasons before he finally delivered on his potential but there were times I wished we'd kept Kennedy and traded Lewis.
DH
Guest
Mitchell never had a game as bad as O'Meara did on the weekend. Never in his whole career (barring injuries).
DH
Guest
That midfield is possibly the worst in the league, maybe just better than Brisbane's. Unless O'Meara becomes Brownlow material, there's no way that midfield would challenge for a flag, and that's not even considering the next rung below those 3 are probably the worst 4-6 midfielders in the comp (perhaps with the exception of Carlton and Brisbane). Sure it's better than if it were Lewis and Mitchell (age wise) but Mitchell and Lewis at 23 were a lot better than T. Mitchell and O'Meara are now. That's not even mentioning the depth below those 9 people you mentioned which is abysmal and you've already included Duryea who's struggling to get a game.
Dalgety Carrington
Roar Guru
Almost to a man Freo brought in someone faster in the exchange of players, considerably so in the case of Dawson and Griffin, the possible exception being Tucker.
Don Freo
Guest
5 Sam Mitchells in his current form would not be equal to one JOM. O'Meara is already better tham Mitchell at his best
dave
Guest
To win 3 in a row is an amazing achievement.So If Hawthorn have a bit of a bad run like Brisbane It does prove the AFL equalisation rules are having an effect. The trading of future picks will make this more pronounced as teams gamble heavily on instant success while the lower teams gobble up their draft picks and wait it out and plan for years ahead. I still have troubles understanding Hawks giving away future picks but I guess Omeara was just one of those players that if you have a chance to get you have to take it.
Tricky
Guest
Yeah Don, Mitchell and Lewis don't have the leg speed BUT they do possess (yes still) ball speed and that right there is what Hawthorn are lacking - among other things. Right now you'd arguably have those 2 in your best 22 above Omeara and Mitchell, in particular Sam his footy brain alone is worth more than any leg speed.
Brian
Guest
Geelong did play more kids and thank goodness they didn't top up in 2013 or they may have won another flag. As it is they blew their chance. So the Hawks unlike Sydney or Geelong are coming from further back because they topped up more and won more flags. Forward there's no reason they can't challenge in 2019/2020 Rioli 27, Gunston 25, Bruest 26 so the forward line goodfor another 5 years Mitchell 23, O'Meara 23, Shiels 25 the mid needs more depth but looks a lot better future wise then if Lewis & S Mitchell were leading it. Frawley 28, Duryea 25, Stratton 28. The defence too needs more From day 1 Clarko has been either trying to win the flag or building towards it and its exactly what Hawthorn are doing now.
George
Guest
Another aspect people don't talk too much about is mental aspect. Once players realize that a team is over the cliff the invincibility and confidence is gone. How can old players with 4 cups motivate themselves in such a position? OK, I try my best, which is 10% less than last year and we still finish 12 rather than 17 on the ladder. Just watch Lemmens doing candy man on Hodge. Poor Hodge was laying on the ground like forever. It was unbelievable run by an amazing team but long and painful rebuild ahead. Many holes on the team, no picks, not many young promising players, less attractive destination for free agents.
Alchemist
Roar Rookie
Good grief this is going to hurt... I agree whole-heartedly Don. The cracks that were being papered over throughout the 3peat and last year are now gaping chasms. The sheer class of our A listers was dragging up the quality of those below who could then stand up. As those A listers have aged, the next tier players have been found very wanting. Everyone is jumping on the speed bandwagon as the excuse but it's the skills and decision making of the 'rest' that's been found out It's going to be a long way back with no draft picks either.
Alchemist
Guest
Good grief this smis going to hurt... I agree whole-heartedly Don. The cracks that were being papered over throughout the 3peat and last year are now gaping chasms. The sheer class of our A listers was dragging up the quality of those below who could then stand up. As those A listers have aged, the next tier players have been found very wanting. Everyone is jumping on the speed bandwagon as the excuse but it's the skills and decision making of the 'rest' that's been found out It's going to be a long way back with no draft picks either.
DH
Guest
Geelong were more structurally sound because they had Taylor, Hawkins and Lonergan to build the team around. The addition of Henderson adds another backup so they've been able to pursue mids with their drafting to add speed (Cockatoo and Parfitt). And Dangerfield and S Selwood had the come-home factor to add depth to what was then a very thin midfield. The two things hardest to replace in a team are top end talent in the midfield and the spine. Hawthorn had a midfield and a spine problem. Lake and Gibson gone, Roughead out and Mitchell and Lewis too old. They've broken even at best in the midfield but still have a lack of depth and thin spine. Frawley is no Lake, Hodge and Burgoyne can no longer play significant time in the midfield. Hawthorn will do well to sustain where they're at now, which is outside the 8, more likely they'll drop back further well beyond Roughead's career duration. Rioli, Breust, Smith and Gunston are cream, they're not the kind of player you can build a team around.
Don Freo
Guest
Freo only got Logue with a high...ish draft. The rest was just good trading. Mostly Freo's improvement came from stars returning from injury and getting games under their belts. Similarly, Roughie will improve but Burgoyne, Gibson, Frawley...might do the way of Zac Dawson and Danyle Pearce. The difference is that Freo already has...and had... the next generation in place.
DH
Guest
A rebuild from the bottom half of the ladder without draft picks? Roughead and Rioli will have retired by the time any rebuild takes hold. The problems for Hawthorn have come on too fast and too drastic and are far too structural for them to do anything like what Geelong were able to do.
DH
Guest
He's the only official AFL-brand 'free-agent' but those uncontracted players who signed with Hawthorn or were traded due to imminently coming out of contract were impacted by free agency rules. Just as Dangerfield was technically 'traded' to Geelong, he moved because of Free Agency. Hawks fans love to sprout about the technicality of not many free agents actually moving, but Jaeger O'Meara told GC he wanted to go to Hawthorn and that's how they got him. At the end of this year, if Hawthorn finish outside the 8, how many players are going to insist on being traded to Hawthorn. Like the next poster says, it's about the next 8-10 years. The next Brian Lake was thinking about that year, not the next 8-10. Hawthorn are cooked for a long time. Mitchell and O'Meara are fine players, but when Roughead retires by 2019, Hodge, Burgoyne and Gibson are already gone, they're just somehow being picked every week and Hawthorn have no decent draft picks ready to play until 2019 as 18 year olds. Hawthorn will have lots of cash to throw about, but given they're odds-on to finish outside the finals, they're going to have to pay overs to attract maybe one or two players who won't get anywhere near . Brisbane have lots of cash to throw about too, so do Carlton, doesn't mean they've been able to recruit well. One solution would be to trade out guys like Smith, Breust and Shiels for some draft picks to help the rebuild, but, like Melbourne, Carlton and Brisbane, it's hard for those guys to learn anything if they're surrounded by peanuts. There's just no decent way out of this mess for Hawthorn except to look at their cups and think about making the move to Tasmania official and final.
hawker
Guest
JOM and TOM are were acquired for the next 8-10years not the next 8-10 weeks.. the core of premiership era mitchell/hodge/lewis/burgoyne/gibson - will be retired by the end of this year or well past their best - its time to rebuild