Future draft pick trading was always going to be a lottery and, for once, the roulette wheel might be coming up red, white and black.
If Hawthorn’s rebuilding slump continues, it won’t be the Hawks flying high, but the Saints marching into pick one. So let’s have a look at the winners and losers based on the current ladder.
The Winners
St Kilda are easily the biggest winners of the future draft pick trading market this season if the ladder remains the same or similar. Not having a second-round draft pick is a complete non-event, with the Saints holding onto picks one and nine. Even if they moved up the ladder, the Hawthorn first-round pick is the one to watch.
It’s not clear whether Brisbane are winning, or merely breaking even with getting Port Adelaide’s first-round draft pick. It’s currently pick 12, but with Port playing okay this season so far, it could easily stay as a late first rounder.
There’s still nothing wrong with that, but the Lions would be hoping a Power outage hits, and they tumble down the ladder.
Gold Coast is the other big winner, not in the first round, but definitely in the second round. Hawthorn’s second-round pick (19), St Kilda’s (25) and even Richmond’s (high at 34) are still going to be good gets for a team that needs some love.
The currency can easily translate back to the trade table, as three good quality picks for academy ones will be of interest to Greater Western Sydney, Sydney and Brisbane too. There could be some horse trading, and quality players coming to the coast.
Geelong traded out their first-round draft pick to Carlton (and onto Richmond), which currently sits at the lofty pick 18. It’s still a first round that Geelong won’t be participating in, but so late in the party that I doubt the Cats would be disappointed.
If the rumours are that Geelong will make a play for Ablett, the 2017 draft might be a quiet one for the Cats.
The Losers
This early in the piece, there is one that is standing out. Was Jaeger O’Meara and pick 33 worth picks one and 19? I didn’t think so, and Hawthorn fans who were hopeful of a quick rebuild back to the finals might have to wait until 2019 or 2020.
Coming into the draft at Pick 33 and then pick 37, they would be hopeful of diamonds in the rough falling through, or Gold Coast doing something stupid with their three second-round picks before the Hawks.
Of course, it is still really early in the season and things will likely change. But the Saints and Gold Coast Suns might have pulled off the heist of the trade period last year with Hawthorn if they stay rooted to the bottom.
A different argument would look at the merits of future draft pick trading, but surely people weren’t expecting Hawthorn to be sitting with Ross Lyon’s mate Owen.
But what do you think Roarers? Of the future draft picks in play in Hawthorn, Port Adelaide and Geelong’s first rounders, which teams will come out ahead and which teams will be left behind?
Cat
Roar Guru
I only mentioned it because too often people just stop at the 'Cats gave away another 1st round pick' - it's simply too shallow an analysis. The 2nd round pick we got back from the Blues was key. Club went in hoping we'd finish high and Blues low (both likely) making the difference between the two very little. If Cats win the flag and blues take the spoon, Cats will only slide back one position in the draft.
Cat
Roar Guru
I also didn't mention getting Smedts off our list - addition by subtraction.
Macca
Guest
Cat - You definitely got a quality player in Tuohy but the pick wasn't all you gave up - you also gave us the pick that we used on Polson who will debut tonight.
Wayne
Roar Guru
Later in season (around late July/early August) I was planning on analysing the trade deals and future draft picks to see who "won" the trade. This was just a test article to see if I could put words around the idea.
Jakarta Fan
Roar Rookie
It shows the risky nature of future draft picks, but isn't it good to have that element of risk? It's great for the Saints and the Suns, but after so little success in the past or so-far, it's great for them. For the losers, particularly Hawthorn, it's about time they headed to the dungeon after an remarkable 3 decades of incredible success. All this says, trading future drafts is great and adds a bit of intrigue, spice and an ability to read future trends.
Cat
Roar Guru
As it currently sits Cats will lose pick 18 but gain pick 23 (Carlton's 2nd rounder they got back in the deal). Sliding back 5 slots for Tuohy, who has been in ripping form as a Cat and just the type of player we've needed, is a great deal for Geelong.
Keagan Ryan
Roar Guru
As a Brisbane fan pick 12 would be a fair result. Worth remembering we also got pick 22 (moved to 23 after compo and ultimately used on Alex Witherden). Subsequently, Pearce has played one game for the Suns and recently got injured in the NEAFL... But that's all beside the point of the article, which is a great idea. Hopefully you monitor and update this piece regularly throughout the year... it's certainly an interesting side plot to the season