The Western Bulldogs return to the scene of a September sporting murder, taking on the West Coast Eagles in a game that will see the winner hold a top-four spot.
Last time they met, the Western Bulldogs ripped the hearts out of West Coast’s game day 22 in the middle of Subiaco Oval. With their bare hands. The 2016 elimination final, the first played under the new pre-finals bye structure, was a bitter defeat for the Eagles, who were heavy favourites against a battered, bruised and broken Dogs team.
This game has been discussed at length elsewhere so let’s save some space. Take it from me, it sucked, and was terrible, and I’m totally over it and don’t think about it once or twice a week.
As it stands, the teams placed fourth and fifth on the ladder through seven rounds open an intriguing round of football.
There’s substance everywhere you look: the Hawks have a chance to break out of the bottom four, the Pies face the Giants in Western Sydney (where they have had great success), the Dees and Crows, the league’s latest international experiment, the Swans and ‘Roos closing the round. For all of that, tonight is the only time two current finalists will face off.
Both teams have solid, not spectacular, form lines coming in, with three wins in their past four against a combination of average and good teams.
West Coast’s last start was meritorious for more reasons than one, while the Dogs got out of jail against a plucky Richmond side after just falling short against the Giants a week prior.
Neither team is a perfect picture of health, particularly in the ruck, where the four first choice stoppage artists are on the sidelines.
It sets the stage for an interesting late change or two for both sides, foreshadowed by Bulldogs coach Luke Beveridge at his pre-flight press conference yesterday.
While Beveridge and company’s personnel decisions are always fascinating, there is another layer of intrigue this week. They’re not afraid to throw convention out the window.
Exhibit A, the Dogs conceded every ruck contest bar one to first game ruckman Ivan Soldo in the first quarter last weekend.
The Dogs have made two forced changes and one half-forced change, with Jake Stringer and Josh Dunkley out with mid range injuries, and captain Robert Murphy given a week on the pine.
In come Lukas Webb and Bailey Dale, and remarkably Jack Redpath in his first AFL game back – after a very good showing in the VFL last week – from an ACL injury incurred in the middle of last year.
The Eagles dropped Mark Hutchings, replacing him with youngster Liam Duggan. West Coast also made an interesting decision dropping Jonathon Giles for Fraser McInness (a very tall forward who moonlights as a ruckman), meaning Nathan Vardy will ruck for most of the game.
The Dogs have named Tom Boyd as the starting ruck; Zaine Cordy, named at centre half back, could spend time as the forward half ruckman but I doubt Redpath will be relied upon given it is his first AFL-level game back from a serious injury.
(AAP Image/Tony McDonough)
The Xs and Os are a little difficult to parse then, given the strange team structure at the Dogs and potential for late changes on both sides. Still, there are some interesting contrasts.
Take West Coast’s defence, led this year by Interceptor in Chief Elliot Yeo and ably supported by Jeremy McGovern, Brad Shepherd Tom Barrass.
There are few ground ball-centric defenders in West Coast’s line-up (their smalls are aerialists in the main), while there are many ground ball-centric forwards lining up for the Western Bulldogs.
By selecting Cordy and Redpath, it appears the Dogs have thought about how they can negate one or two of West Coast’s interceptors while also clearing the way for their medium and small forwards inside the Eagles defensive 50.
Alternatively, Redpath is a red herring and the Dogs intend to play the travelling emergency Declan Hamilton.
The real interest in this game lies in the middle. Rucking will be interesting, but so will the way both teams try to use their best midfielders to their advantage.
Take West Coast’s Sam Mitchell. He is a prime candidate for a Tom Liberatore pressure fest. When he has played, Mitchell has been critical to the Eagles’ stoppage set ups, linking up with Luke Shuey or Matt Priddis as they gather the ball, or hovering a disposal away and setting the play.
Or take Marcus Bontempelli, the man controlling the Dogs’ play between the arcs and spending more time forward as a change up. The Eagles don’t have a matchup that immediately comes to mind – other than Yeo, who is about the same pace as Bontempelli and at least as talented in the air.
Eagles coach Adam Simpson would sacrifice some intercept ability on the half back line when Bontempelli plays through the middle, but could negate Bontempelli’s influence when he goes forward. It’s an interesting decision to make, particularly given Bontempelli’s influence seems to grow as games progress.
(AAP Image/Craig Golding)
Outside of the peak of both lineups, there are plenty of interesting matchups to sort out. Last time they met the Dogs eviscerated the Eagles’ midfield as a unit, and they will have designs on doing the same again this evening.
West Coast’s home ground advantage is strong. History says it is worth about four goals. The Eagles have scored 103 points per game at home this season, a score the Dogs have bested twice this year (against Sydney and Brisbane, who are currently 17th and 18th).
In their last trip to Perth, against the Dockers in Round 3, the Dogs scored 73 points. The high level maths alone suggests this will be a difficult game for the Dogs to win.
We also said that about last year’s elimination final.
Still, tonight, West Coast are in the box seat, and if they at a minimum break even through the middle of the ground should have the bookends covered. There is potential that this one gets closer, but all things considered, West Coast will win by 24 points.
That’s my Friday night forecast, what’s yours?
I ate pies
Guest
I think Bontempelli is a class above Yeo; maybe two.
Baz
Guest
lecrass too slow & doesn't look to handball off to bring his team mates into the game. this is highlighted every time he takes a mark, he just lowers his head & doesn't look to pass to someone in a better spot.
theboss
Guest
Whaat? Nah.... surely a home semi is better than a home elimination leading to an away semi See Ryan's article on tanking also
theboss
Guest
Disagree... Lecca has been great this year (Matt Lloyd even has him in the All Australian team, which I don't agree with but he must be doing something right) This was highlighted by his possible 3 votes last week Josh Hill meanwhile is being his usual inconsistent self
Raimond
Roar Guru
Maybe the Bulldogs have calculated that finishing 5th or 6th may be better than finishing 3rd or 4th, especially if the Crows & Giants finish 1/2.
Baz
Guest
I think Yeo is the perfect match up for Bontempelli when Bontempelli goes forward. Also, WCE small forwards - I would drop Lecras before Hill.
I hate pies
Guest
Unfortunately I don't live in Vic so there's no VFL for me; just poxy low grade rugby
mattyb
Guest
Thank you IHP. This weeks VFL game will be the televised match so I will be able to do this weeks report with the aid of commentary,not that I find it really makes much difference. Our supporters will have easy access to the game if they choose to watch this week.
mattyb
Guest
Fair enough Dougie,I'm still expecting Cordy to stay back and develop in that role while Morris is out. With Adams and Cordy both in the side I haven't seen Bev showing any intention of Cordy playing forward,especially while Morris has been out. I'm still seeing Bev looking long term. We may now be a champion side but we are a young champion side and I expect Cordys development in defence to continue.
mattyb
Guest
Cheers Paul,unfortunately my internet skills aren't the best. The indidual senior listed players highlights can be accessed via the You Tube channel VitalDread. I'll mention this with my reports. I'm guessing putting in the players name and VFL should also work. They are available a few days after the editing (Wednesday,Thursday) My player summaries as I said can be found right here after my weekly senior review. If supporters would like me to eventually make my VFL Senior listed player reports there own article I guess I can do that. It's seemed to work after the last two rounds just attaching them to the senior game article. i will also be unable to put the URLS next to my written summaries as obviously I can do the write up after watching the VFL game while the videos aren't available until later in the week. Interestingly I did say in my last report that while Redpath was excellent I didn't believe he was ready for AFL after only one game back from his ACL,I also said Dikson looked ready to return but now he's not playing at any level,so obviously I can be wrong and I dont pick the team. I did award Bailey Dale BOG though and he comes into the selected side this week. My reports will obviously only be my opinion but I'm hoping the doggies supporters on here get something from it. I did get a thank you last week which was nice.
I ate pies
Guest
I think they would sacrifice the short term for gains in the long term by not sending their absolute strongest team. If that's conceding then yes, I think that they would, and I think that they are.
I ate pies
Guest
I read your reports Matty, and I find them very interesting and informative. In fact, I've partially based my opinion on the dogs putting the cue in the rack on those reports.
Pumping Dougie
Roar Guru
I don't think it was a shocking observation from Ryan at all. I sense with Stringer out, this is the game Bevo pushes Cordy forward, instead of Adams. Adams will be needed to mind Kennedy, Roberts on Darling and Wood on McGovern (if he plays forward). The beauty of this side is its flexibility, and indeed either Adams or Cordy might be used forward and both can play back, so I imagine it will depend on what Bevo makes of the matchups.
Paul D
Roar Guru
You know it's conventional when referencing material on the internet to post a url to where it is hosted
mattyb
Guest
While on this topic,another reminder to the premiership supporters that highlights of each AFL listed reserves player is now being put up on you tube for you to get a first hand look at how the boys are going. Obviously they are only individual highlights so the context can be slightly mislead as only good play is shown. Each snippet runs from between 2 and 5 or so mins depending on how the played. My suggestion is to watch the videos in conjunction with my written reports. The videos are normally uploaded by Wednesday or Thursday and I have been getting my written reports up the afternoon following the VFL game. Videos from the last two games are available as are my match and player reports. Current VFL updates are Dikson will not play this week which is a concern and Crameri will be on limited minutes. Lipinski will again miss with his injured collarbone.
mattyb
Guest
Dougie,unfortunately it was a shocking observation regarding Redpath and Cordy. While Cordy did spend the latter parts of last season forward,he has spent no time there this year at all. With Morris out injured Cordy has been taking on this important role in defence. Marcus Adams has been the player the dogs send forward if they need to bring the ball to ground. The Eagles aren't the only team with intercept markers in defence. Last week while facing the much improved Richmond it was Adams who played forward on Rance doing a serviceable job. Also when Cordy played forward last year Adams wasn't available due to injury. By watching this years games it's clear to me that Adams is the man who plays this role. He also played forward against Brisbane.
Pumping Dougie
Roar Guru
I agree with your last sentence Don, but not so sure about Murphy not being in our best 15 - I think he still makes our top 10, maybe top 8 (behind Bont, Libber, Dahlhaus, Wood, Stringer, JJ, Macrae). Great to see Lukas Webb finally get a crack. He's been playing well in the VFL team consistently for the past two years and watched as many teammates keep getting promoted ahead of him. I hope he has a good game and does enough to earn a few more - seems like a promising player to me. Good observation by Ryan that the Doggies will deploy Redpath and Cordy as forwards whose sole job is to compete hard against the big Eagles bodies and bring the ball to ground for our elite ground-ball crumbers, unless they are in a good position to mark. Stringer has been in good form and is a big loss, but he midfield battle between these two teams should be a ripper. I think our midfield has greater depth, but the Eagles forward line could cause some carnage. While Josh Hill is still getting a game, we're every chance of an upset win again.
mattyb
Guest
That's correct IHP,Redpath played last week and was very good. He also had numerous scoring chances in the first half that he missed and could have easily ended up with 8 or 9 goals. He marked strongly on both the lead and in pack situations. He certainly looked dangerous but played a very much old style full forwards roll not moving to much outside the forward 50. While I rated his game as excellent,I didn't think he was anywhere near a senior recall at this stage. I've been concerned for some time about people passing on both third/fourth hand information as well as false information regarding players in reserve grade football. In recent weeks I've attempted to fix this problem for our bulldog supporters by supplying in depth,first hand reports regarding our senior listed players performance at VFL level. You will find these reports generally following my senior match review. i have been breaking these reports down to discuss each player individually to give our supporters a correct idea of what's going on and how the VFL boys are traveling. Go Doggies.
Paul D
Roar Guru
I agree - can easily see this being another of those big wins the weagles have at home that feed their delusions of grandeur
DingoGray
Roar Guru
Don't think for a second concede has been mentioned by the Bulldogs, but the message would be completely about the process rather than the result. The fact they've named a midfielder to start in the ruck, shows that Bulldogs don't consider this game out and out make and break we have to win this contest. If they did Murphy wouldn't be sitting at home. Mindset is a big thing and you will find the mindset travelling to Perth this time around to last time completely different. And this is why I think you will see a relatively issue win for West Coast, unless of course they are drinking their own bath water again.