So with all the speculation surrounding State of Origin selections, which players, past and present, have the highest success rates?
Constructing Queensland and NSW squads based purely on winning percentages is as good a method as any.
Selection criteria is simple, each player must have at least ten Origin games to their name, and must have played in the relevant position to be considered. From there, simply the highest percentage winners are selected for their state side.
While there are some genuine superstars in the teams, there are also a lot of tradesmen-like players who have served their state well. Some I would never have thought would make a team like this.
For Queensland, Martin Bella, Ben Hannant, Ashley Harrison, Jacob Lillyman and Dallas Johnson would never be talked about when naming a greatest ever Queensland side. Yet when called upon by they have always done a job for their state and their winning record reflects that.
Similarly for NSW, the likes of Tim Brasher, Paul McGregor, Rod Wishart, David Gillespie, Adam Muir and Craig Fitzgibbon are all underated players who served their state well during periods of NSW dominance.
It also means that a host of superstars missed selection, including Immortals Wally Lewis and Andrew Johns, but nonetheless two very good sides were assembled. The Queensland team reflected their recent dominance along with a spattering of players from the 1980s, while no current player made the NSW side. It includes players mainly from the 1990s along with a couple of players from both the ’80s and early 2000s.
The player with the highest winning percentage in Origin is Ben Kennedy, who won ten of his 13 games with NSW for a winning percentage of just under 77 per cent. And Queensland’s player with the highest win percentage? Amazingly, Ben Hannant, who emerged victorious in nine of his 13 games for the Maroons.
Queensland Maroons
1. Billy Slater
2. Darius Boyd
3. Tony Currie
4. Gene Miles
5. Greg Inglis
6. Jonathan Thurson
7. Cooper Cronk
8. Nate Myles
9. Cameron Smith
10. Martin Bella
11. Ashley Harrison
12. Sam Thaiday
13. Paul Vautin
14. Karmichael Hunt
15. Ben Hannant
16. Jacob Lillyman
17. Dallas Johnson
NSW Blues
1. Tim Brasher
2. Jamie Ainscough
3. Paul McGregor
4. Andrew Ettingshausen
5. Rod Wishart
6. Laurie Daley
7. Ricky Stuart
8. Paul Harragan
9. Geoff Toovey
10. Peter Tunks
11. Noel Cleal
12. Dean Pay
13. Ben Kennedy
14. Craig Wing
15. David Gillespie
16. Craig Fitzgibbon
17. Adam Muir
The Barry
Roar Guru
Really interesting article. I was looking at stats on the weekend and noticed Gillmeister had a really high winning percentage - mustn't have quite got to Vautin and Harrison levels. The other one that surprised me was Wally Fullerton-Smith. He was the epitome of a tradesman like player but I think his win percentage was around 65%. Thanks for putting this together.
Michael Keeffe
Roar Guru
Yep, I'm a bit of a stats nerd, so it was fun.
Dutski
Roar Guru
Wow. Brad Thorn at 9% is a massive shock. Also surprised to see Tallis and Bowen on that list. I guess the recent qld dominance has skewed my perspective a bit. Thanks Michael , it looks like it was a fun time sorting through the stats.
Michael Keeffe
Roar Guru
Hey Dutski, In order highest to lowest. Kennedy 77%, Hannant Ainscough 75%, Cronk 74%, Currie 73%, Thaiday, Toovey 71%, Hunt, Tunks 70%, Boyd, Lillyman 69%, Vautin, Myles 68%, Harrison, Johnson, Pay, Cleal, 67% Miles 65%, McGregor, Thurston, Fitzgibbon 64%, Inglis 63%, Bella, Brasher, Smith, Muir 62% Harrogan, Gillespie 60%, Slater 59%, Wing 58% Stuart, Daley 57%, Ettingshausen 56% Wishart 55% There were 18 players that had a better winning % than Wishart who didn't make their respective states squads because someone else had a higher percentage than them in their position/s. E.g. Wally Lewis, Andrew Johns, Matt Scott, Petro Civenoceva, Glenn Lazarus, Corey Parker, Brad Fittler etc. Not sure about a follow up article but the ten worst winning records (minimum of 10 origins) were all 30% or lower. They were in order Brad Thorn 9%, Brett Morris, Kurt Gidley 25%, Mitchell Pearce 26.67%, Ben Creagh 27.27%, Gorden Tallis 29.41%, Matt Bowen, Jamie Lyon, Julian O'Neill, Ian French - all 30%. I think Brad Thorn will be ok though he did win 4 premierships, a Super Rugby title, a Rugby World Cup and is a dual international.
Dutski
Roar Guru
Hey Kreig I didn't think of it like that- rubbing salt into the wounds etc. I just love data and patterns, I'm pretty nerdy like that and was curious to se if any surprises come up. I actually think there would be because of michael's 10 origin starting point. Most of the recent blues wouldn't make 10 Origins. There could even be players on both lists depending on how many have met that criteria. So its curiosity rather than malice. And as a blues supporter of course I'd love to see nsw win it this year!
Bloody R Bull
Roar Rookie
The best current players in the comp with the ticka to play origin should be in your origin team. QLD legends Smith, Thurston, Slater, Scott, Cronk & Inglis (stolen from NSW) have made a lot of normally very ordinary origin players look like super stars, that's for certain. NSW haven't got that luxury, and haven't had it fo a long time. Maybe ever. Maybe Never. Don't pick never wassers like Farah, give Pearce a hooker like McInnes who's young, good & hungry. Etc
jeff dustby
Guest
fair enough
Kreig
Guest
The problem with a follow up article like that is that it will of course be filled with current and recently-retired Blues players. Not good for the morale of those poor NSWelshmen out there who inevitability cling to some semblance of hope prior to the commencement of Origin each year. I am a Queenslander through and through. But for the sake of the game and Origin concept, the Blues winning in 2014 was imperative, and it needs to be not long before they win one again in order to keep Origin not only exciting but alive. So I for one don't want to see that particular follow up article. The players who are likely to be on that list know who they are. That's enough salt in the wounds, don't you think?
Dutski
Roar Guru
Hey Michael. Interesting take. ANy chance you could give us the win percentage of all the players? And how about a 'never again' 17, with the players with the lowest %??? A followup article, perhaps?
Michael Keeffe
Roar Guru
Hey Jeff, wasn't my original title for the article that was changed by the editors before they published. However the title did get you to comment and is more provocative that what I'd originally written so all is not lost. I think tradesmen like players are important but not the key. The analysis isn't to say that these players are the greatest in their position or even in the greatest origin 17. I simply found it an interesting that these were the players who won the highest percentage of time at origin. No doubt who they played with was significant but with a minimum of 10 games to be considered for the teams I don';t think any of their contributions should be downplayed either or just considered a fluke. For example Jacob Lillyman wouldn't be considered in the best 10 (maybe even best 20) props to have played for QLD. He's only once (2015) played all three games in a series and in 13 games has started from the bench 12 times. Yet he's always done his job for QLD and next week with Matt Scott and now likely Nate Myles out injured will possibly start at prop and again not let anyone down. It's the job that these "lesser" players do when the stars are out that have made teams dominant throughout Origin periods (QLD - 80's, NSW 90's & early 2000's, QLD recently).
jeff dustby
Guest
tradesman like players are the key? it is a coincidence that they were playing along great players. really flawed analysis and title. the blues players played along side Johns, Daley and Fittler at their best