Thursday night football brings with it match of the round status this week, between two teams that have meandered through the first half of the season after starting the year with lofty goals in mind.
Sydney has been the most disappointing side in the competition, a statement that brooks no argument. Widely picked as a top two finisher, and certainly a lock for the top four, they have stumbled their way to a 3-7 record, currently occupying 16th spot on the ladder.
Infamously losing their first six games, they looked to get their season back on track with three wins on the trot, but fluffed their lines against Hawthorn at the SCG in Round 10, and are thus coming off their worst loss of the year.
Interestingly though, and we get a hint of this through their strong percentage, Sydney’s three wins have all been by greater margins than any of the Bulldogs six.
The Dogs have never really clicked into gear through to this stage of 2017. They won four of their first five matches, but it was amidst an easy draw to open the season, particularly so for a reigning premier. It looked soft on paper, and it played out even friendlier.
The Bulldogs have only won two of their last five matches, but were far from disgraced in any of their losses – going down fighting to GWS, West Coast and Geelong, who were all enjoying significant home ground advantage.
They are working into the season, but still, the fact remains that the Dogs have played five matches against current top eight sides, and only won one, and even that, against Richmond, came after trailing for 85 per cent of the match.
In their favour is they are coming off their best performance of the season, beating St Kilda by a handsome 40-point margin, and winning each quarter along the way, a first for them this year.
(AAP Image/Julian Smith)
The Bulldogs and Swans have met four times since Luke Beveridge took over as senior coach of the former, and the Dogs hold a 4-0 record. Two of those wins have been at the SCG, so tonight’s ground holds no fears.
The average winning margin in those games has been only 13 points, so it hardly speaks to a Dogs side that has a strong football edge, but there may be a mental one.
In three of those four defeats, Sydney were in front at various stages in the last quarters, and in the other, the grand final, they were within a point. Is it just a coincidence that on all four occasions, the Dogs were able to dig deeper and find a way to win?
It takes a certain mental resolve to win the premiership the way the Dogs did last year, the first team this century to take out the flag after finishing outside the top four, and winning all four finals as underdog, travelling the breadth of the country to do so.
On the other hand, Sydney have become perennial chokers since their grand final win in 2012. The Swans finished top four from 2013 through to 2016, twice on top of the ladder, but have no premiership medals to show for it, despite the addition of a talent like Buddy Franklin through that time.
A finals record of five wins and seven losses in the last four years is underwhelming given the talent John Longmire has had access to. A player like Tom Mitchell was wrongly seen as surplus to requirements, and has left a bigger hole than was anticipated.
Sydney have conceded an average of 67-72 points per game in the last three seasons, but this year are letting through 90 points a game thanks to their early season woes. And they’ve only played four sides currently in the eight too, so have hardly been taxed by the fixture.
Can the Dogs take advantage of a more lax Swans defence? They are ranked a lowly 14th for points for, not an unusual position for them given they were ranked 12th on the way to the flag last season. They certainly found more fire-power in the finals, through a motley array of types.
This season, Jake Stringer leads the Dogs goal-kicking, with Marcus Bontempelli a clear second. To the naked eye, the Bont seems to be spending much more time forward than ideal, but his ability to win contests, apply pressure, create opportunities and pull off a superstar move in a big moment is valuable wherever he is placed.
(AAP Image/David Moir)
Luke Beveridge has always rung the changes in his time at the Dogs, and there has usually been a steady stream of injuries to first-choice players, so his teams have always had a make-shift feel. Sydney’s side also has a cobbled-together look, and you’d have got long odds at the start of the season on both Kurt Tippett and Aliir Aliir not getting a game on form at this point of the year.
Looking at the named teams, player for player, line for line, area for area, and it’s hard to find an edge to one team over another.
The Swans have Franklin and Heeney, the Dogs have Stringer and Bontempelli, so match-winners aren’t in short supply. Both midfields bat deep, and they each have supplementary forward options that can pose problem for the respective backlines.
This match shapes as a bare-knuckle street-fight, and in that scenario, I want to be with Luke Beveridge over John Longmire.
The Western Bulldogs by 11 points.
That’s my Thursday night forecast. What’s yours?
Mark
Guest
6x AA. He's a once in a generation player. Not a superstar? That's a laugh.
Mark
Guest
Tom Mitchell wrongly seen as surplus? Kennedy, Parker, Hannebery, Heeney the big 4. Jack, Papley, Mills, Hewett, Jones rotating through. If he had a point off difference ie speed and/or a good kick, we would have been willing to pay him more. He's possesses neither of those skills so we made the right decision.
Olivia Watts
Roar Guru
I agree Glenn. Depending on results I expect we will slotin somewhere fro 5th to 10th with a reasonably healthy percentage. We can't afford even one misstep, so my prediction is 9th, to the relief of all Tigers fans - and I'd laugh with irony if they came 10th on percentage. Given our annoying propensity to turn off, and lose, against vastly less skilled teams, I am fearful we'll make that one misstep we just can't afford.
Olivia Watts
Roar Guru
Sigh. Latin and I never really did get along. I give myself points for getting close to the right spelling
Olivia Watts
Roar Guru
I agree Christo; it was the perfect 'good team effort'. Efforts like that each week would make us hard to beat, even with those yips which seem to be becoming endemic. Oh, for the days when Plugger put through 23 in a row without a blemish. I still have no idea where we will finish this year but, as I have said a few times now, it doesn't matter to me this season. If I can see effort like that every week I'll be happy no matter what the scoreboard says. Go Swans, particularly the no name, no fuss newcomers doing such a fine job right now
Leonard
Guest
Definitely! The word I reckon you've got in mind originally meant a 'ring'. But there is another one with the same spelling (but a quite distinct word with a different pronunciation, like in English we have 'tear' as in crying and 'tear' as in ripping) - 'anus' meaning an 'old woman' or a 'crone', so an 'anus horribilis' with an 'anus horribilis' could be having an 'annus horribilis'! (Should probably stop right here,, and very mild fake-apologies if anyone feels 'offended' in the 18C sense.)
Birdman
Guest
way too early for that call but Bevo has got his work cut out
Hubris
Guest
I guess if someone is going to misspell "annus horribilis", it's preferable for the error to be with "horribilis", isn't it?
Leonard
Guest
Beautifully put Ms Watts, and good on you. PS: 'horribilis' for that year you mentioned earlier on June 8th 2017 @ 11:07am - us old Latinists and Romaphiles notice these sorts of trivia!
Christo the Daddyo
Guest
I think the only benefit of missing the finals is that it allows a full pre-season for the players for next year. Don't you think one of the impressive things about last night was that there wasn't a standout player - it did seem like the team had decided as a collective to go hard. If they can continue that effort for the rest of the season I see no reason why they can't make the finals. p.s. But geez it would be nice to overcome the goal-kicking yips...that was atrocious!
Raimond
Roar Guru
Cam made the big call last year about the Hawks. Will he do so about the Bulldogs this year?
Glenn
Guest
So many 'experts', so little knowledge/perspective/idea. It's a fair bet that 99.99% of the people that comment on these articles, don't watch the teams they are writing off anywhere near close enough to justify making comment. Comments on here about Sydney's ruckmen and Buddy's ability are ridiculous and prove my point. Do you people say this stuff out loud? Do you hear yourselves? There is a hell of a long way to go in this season, Sydney is only 2 games outside the 8 and has games against most of the teams above them to come. That makes them 1 game closer to all of those teams before even needing to worry about them beating each other. The Swans are a fair bet to finish 5th or 6th and you know it, so feel free to start worrying.
Olivia Watts
Roar Guru
To those who kindly supported my earlier comment, thank you. To those who used it to play the (wo)man and not the ball, you were ignored as, indeed, I tend to ignore all such banal posts and wasted wordage, directed at me or not. If you want to keep making such posts, knock yourself out. I simply don't care. The Swans had an excellent win tonight and yet I stand by every word in my original comment, the gist of which was we might gain greater ultimate experience and benefit this year if we were to miss the finals for a year. I might be wrong but it is my honestly felt opinion. I am a supporter for the long term, a member for over 40 years and have supported them at the top and the bottom of the ladder. I always will, wherever they finish and I try to be as unbiased as I can when I assess them. To those of you who focus your posts on intelligent comment to do with football, thank you. I learn a lot from your insights and respect your knowledge and passion. You, combined, make the Roar a must read for me each day. May your team be successful until they play the Swans. Then, may the best team win (and I hope they are wearing red and white)!
Dodgy
Guest
Right on the money.
Angela
Guest
And lo, it came to pass. The Swans did win. By heaps.
Christo the Daddyo
Guest
Yep, I'm sure you're right and every single commentator associated with AFL has it wrong. Much like that other over-rated player Tony Lockett, Franklin is the only player to kick more than 250 goals at more than one club.
mattyb
Guest
Ryan,personally I think Buddy is a great player,Superstar is debatable but I'd have him in my side. With you going to the stats desk though you have returned with very little. I don't really want to look into myself but do you have anything else?All Australians,any other medals,media awards? Coleman medals are great and great players win them but I feel you have come up extremely short in your criticism of poor old JK.
Leonard
Guest
Good one, Olivia, a "losing season might be exactly what we need to experience", echoing another Sydney identity who reckoned that a recession in his time, November 1990, was the "one we had to have". From memory, that suggestion did him no harm because he stayed on as national Head Coach for five more years.
DingoGray
Roar Guru
Sinclair is an absolute SPUD! I thought he was while he was an Eagle and nothing has really changed as a Swan. As for Tippett, I just can't see him getting back to his peak form. His most recent injury history is not good. He just seems to be one of those guys who can't play hurt. I'm surprised that Darcy Cameron hasn't been given an opportunity at this stage. I don't think you'd be any worse off then you are right now.
Cat
Roar Guru
As an Adelaide player, Tippett missed 12 games in five years. As a Swan, he has missed 40 in five years. At some point you have to stop counting on him.