Is bowling first the new ODI recipe for success?

By Kersi Meher-Homji / Expert

At the Champions Trophy, a new trend in ODI cricket appears to be emerging. Bowling first has been a way towards securing victory.

Is this a modern trend? I mean winning the toss, sending their opponents in to bat and winning the match?

So far at the Champions Trophy, 12 matches have been played, of which two were rained out. Of the ten matches with results, captains have sent opponents to bat eight times after winning the toss, winning six games (75 per cent) and losing two (25 per cent).

Only South Africa and New Zealand decided to bat on winning the toss, and both lost. South Africa lost to Pakistan by 19 runs by the Duckworth-Lewis rule and New Zealand lost to Bangla by five wickets.

This appears significant. Compare winning 75 per cent matches after winning the toss and sending opponents to bat against winning no matches after electing to bat.

Will this pattern continue through the finals matches?

England and Pakistan will meet in the first semi-final on Wednesday, while India and giant-killers Bangladesh will clash at Birmingham on Thursday. The winners will meet the winners of England and Pakistan in the final on Sunday, June 18.

(AP Photo/Rui Vieira)

So far, Indian batsmen lead in aggregate and average. Shikhar Dhawan has scored most runs, 271 at 90.33 in three matches. Virat Kohli has the highest batting average, 157.00.

In bowling, Australian quick Josh Hazlewood took most wickets (9 at 15.77) and is the only one to take six wickets in an innings (6-52). No one else has so far taken a five-for.

It is surprising that established teams like Australia, South Africa, Sri Lanka and New Zealand have been eliminated, while weaker teams like Bangladesh and Pakistan have advanced.

Did the pay conflict between Cricket Australia and the players subconsciously lead to Australia performing poorly? I don’t think the two rain-ruined matches were behind their elimination, as the Aussies were lucky to escape defeat against New Zealand and were also unlucky against Bangladesh.

In any case, they would have got two points from these two washout matches. So it was even Stevens.

It will be interesting to see whether the captains will retain the ‘win the toss and send the opponents in’ policy.

I wonder as to why captains have followed the chaser mantra in the tournament and, more intriguing, why have they succeeded?

The Crowd Says:

2017-06-17T00:59:31+00:00

ViratKohli

Roar Rookie


As I said - none of your stats prove that bowling first is recipe for success in ODI's maybe in the current tournament. If you have something definite, let me know. You guys can go ahead and complementing each other on inconsequential trends.

2017-06-16T03:29:27+00:00

Giri Subramanian

Roar Guru


Thanks very much

2017-06-16T02:14:38+00:00

Kersi Meher-Homji

Guest


Giri, I have high regards for your analytic mind. I agree with your summing up of past and present and drawing a sensible conclusion.

2017-06-16T02:02:58+00:00

Giri Subramanian

Roar Guru


You provided stats and I did the same. You did not prove the contrary either. Just by saying teams batting first have won more games than teams batting second in 2017 does not count as rebuttal. My initial post was simply stating that chasing has become easier recently due to short boundaries and flat pitches all around the world. I provided stats to prove my point. Not sure what you are talking about. There is no reason to give evidence on anything anyone who has been watching cricket for last 20-25 years will understand the shift and how teams are increasingly looking to chase rather than set targets. India being one of the prime example. In the 90's you would see win the toss, bat first theory being most popular, not anymore. I am not talking just about this one tournament, most of the teams with strong batting line up are going that route.

2017-06-15T15:23:41+00:00

ViratKohli

Roar Rookie


good on ya baba. I was just pointing out a change in the headline - nothing but confirming your unique observation which a 4 year old could make.

2017-06-15T15:20:29+00:00

ViratKohli

Roar Rookie


It is you who were trying to contradict me in my initial post - Dont know why and after there was no evidence to support your rebuttal you conveniently backed off.

2017-06-15T03:38:40+00:00

Kersi Meher-Homji

Guest


Roarers, My stats are relevant only for the 2017 Champions Trophy. As it was an interesting observation I wanted to share with you all. I try to mention something not observed by others and start a discussion, never for a minute suggesting that what I say is conclusive. So easy to report on a match many have seen live or on TV. Or criticize the selectors when their favourite team loses. All the best 'ViratKohli' for your batting and captaincy today and for suggesting to us the recipe for success!

2017-06-15T03:34:29+00:00

Giri Subramanian

Roar Guru


I am not trying to prove anything, My response was just to your post where you had similar stats for 2017. I am not the author and I am not trying to prove it is the recipe for success. I am merely stating that pitches are flat and more matches are being won by teams batting second, that was not the case in the previous decades.

2017-06-15T03:19:49+00:00

ViratKohli

Roar Rookie


Nothing in your stats to prove that the recipe for success is to chase.

2017-06-15T02:40:33+00:00

Giri Subramanian

Roar Guru


Just saying that it has become easier to chase around the world. The stats you provide is fine as batting first is bound to win more games. In the England India series, India scored 380 odd batting first, England came so close to chasing that down. You wouldn't see that happening in the 90's or early 2000's. Teams are more comfortable chasing and the percentages are closer than ever. Lets do a compare of the last 3 decades: The 1990's Total ODI's played - 933 455 games won by teams batting first 436 games won by teams batting second A decade where team batting first dominated. Not by much but they won more games. The decade of 2000's (2000-2009) Total ODI's - 1405 688 games won by team fielding first 655 game won by teams batting first The shift started to appear in this decade as pitches started to become flatter around the world and the scores started to get bigger. The final Decade - 2010's (It is not yet over) Total ODi's till date - 952 Teams Batting first 432 Games Teams Batting second 475 games The gap is widening. With teams like England now joining the power hitting brigade this number through this decade is going to widen. You can see how there has been a shift in different decades. The gap has started to widen. The 2017 still has 6 months to go and you can see that the numbers aren't that far apart. Things can quickly change by the end of the year.

2017-06-15T01:59:51+00:00

ViratKohli

Roar Rookie


Since Jan 2017 Team Batting first won - 38 ODI's Team Batting second won - 31 ODIs I rest my case.

2017-06-15T00:05:11+00:00

Giri Subramanian

Roar Guru


Pitches have become increasingly flat all over the world and chasing scores have become easy. It is not restricted to English grounds. Teams trying to set targets are under more pressure these days than the teams chasing them. Trend is surely shifting. Obviously there are certain teams like SA and Pakistan who prefer batting first as they are not very good chasers.

2017-06-14T23:49:07+00:00

ViratKohli

Roar Rookie


probably the headline should read - recipe for success in Champions Trophy. Tough to generalize on all ODI's with sample only restricted to UK grounds.

2017-06-14T23:29:31+00:00

Kersi Meher-Homji

Guest


Last night Pakistan won the toss, sent England in to bat and thrashed them by 8 wickets with 77 balls remaining. This revises my stats of yesterday; team sending opponents in to bat have won 77.8% matches in the current Champions Trophy. Stats worked out by CricInfo, as pointed out by Al yesterday in Roar, the figures are 47% for wins recorded by teams fielding first. So 2017 Champions Trophy's results are more eye-catching.

2017-06-14T14:45:06+00:00

Savage

Roar Rookie


wow! looks like another upset around the corner.this really has been tournament of upsets.now,i wont be surprised if bangladesh beat india tomorrow

2017-06-14T11:56:07+00:00

Rellum

Roar Guru


England is suddenly in a bit of trouble. Pakistan a chance now of progressing. A small chance.

2017-06-14T06:20:54+00:00

matth

Guest


But if Australia had beaten Bangladessh they would have had two points each and NRR would have been very relevant. So the rain took a point from Australia and gave it to Bangladesh. It did the opposite to NZ.

2017-06-14T05:55:54+00:00

vaibhav

Guest


just coz aus lost , u guys are not giving updates of other matches, so unprofessional for a sports website

2017-06-14T05:21:21+00:00

Kersi Meher-Homji

Guest


Thank you Al for your research.

2017-06-14T05:07:51+00:00

Ritesh Misra

Roar Guru


Kersi, i do not think so we can conclude on the basis of this tournament. as it is played amidst the unpredictable English weather. Hence chasing has advantages as one can plan according to the changing D/L equations. In contrast, batting 1st one has to plan a target for 50 overs and pace the innings accordingly. Hence is overs get reduced the batting side loses out as they may have targetted 100 in last ten. In such circumstances as at present bowling 1st is a better option.

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