Adelaide vs Western Bulldogs: Friday Night Forecast

Who’d have thought a month ago that these two teams would be a combined 3-5 in their past four games? Both the Crows and Dogs have a chance to work back into some form, and keep the doubters at bay for another week.

It’s situation critical for the Western Bulldogs, who have won one of their last four outings. Their winning margin was one point, against the lowly ‘Roos, who are contending for the title of worst team in football this year.

They followed that win up with a close loss to the Eagles – which should have been a larger loss were it not for a fightback in the last quarter – who fielded a very green and structurally weird team.

The Dogs are the talk of the league. Their issues are numerous, and have built up as the season has progressed.

It all coalesces forward of the ball, where the Dogs have seemingly run out of answers. Footscray rank 14th for points scored (83.1 per game) and have an Offensive Efficiency Rating of -8.1 – meaning they’re well below par.

Despite averaging 11.4 marks inside 50 per game (just about average), the Dogs are converting just 46.7 per cent of their shots into goals – second worst in the league. Shot quality is a problem.

The Dogs are able to generate few scoring opportunities in the “hot zone” around the goal mouth, instead taking shots from further out or on more acute angles. They also fire a lot of shots up under pressure, driven by a lack of fast breaking inside 50 entries.

Personnel wise, they’re yet to really settle on a consistent forward set up, with Jake Stringer and Liam Picken the only regulars due to injury, form, and a desire to spin the magnets.

(AAP Image/Julian Smith)

It’s an issue that begins further up the ground. Last season the Dogs were ferocious in the clinches, particularly when they didn’t have the ball, making it difficult for teams to build any continuity in transition.

Their swarming mass of players, made possible by a zone defence that put emphasis on stacking dangerous areas on the ground with lots of Dogs’ players, was suffocating.

As a result, Footscray earned a clearance differential of +5.7 per game, and an adjusted contested possession differential (contested possessions less contested marks and free kicks) of +11.7; ranked first and second in the competition.

This year, the pressure valve has been lifted, and the Dogs numbers have fallen away significantly: -3.8 in clearances (ranked 13th) and +1.6 in adjusted contested possession differential (11th).

It came home to roost against the Eagles, who outscored the Dogs by 44 points from stoppages last weekend. That would be far and away the largest margin in the clinches the Luke Beveridge Dogs would have given up.

With eight games to go, time is almost up for the Dogs to tighten up their forward 50 and sharpen up through the middle. The Crows afford them an opportunity to do so, given Adelaide’s tendency to leave the ground a bit more open to create their attack and counterattacking lanes.

That’s about the end of the positivity in this for the Dogs. Adelaide are out of form, but given the relative strength of the two named teams it is almost impossible to tip against the home team this evening.

The Dogs have made four changes, continuing their recent spate of discontinuity. Out go Robert Murphy (who had just returned to the team last week), Shane Biggs and Tom Campbell through injury, while Tory Dickson has been dropped.

In their stead return Matthew Boyd – who breaks the games played record for a former rookie-lister (291) tonight – Tom Liberatore, Fletcher Roberts and Clay Smith.

Adelaide have also made three changes, with Kyle Hartigan out with a mid range hamstring injury, Jono Beech dropped and Hugh Greenwood given some time on the pine after a strong couple of weeks post debut.

In their place come the utility’s utility Andy Otten (who’ll presumably take Hartigan’s place down back), Charlie Cameron from injury, and Scott Thompson on form.

Thompson is playing his first game of the year, and means the Crows have an extra inside midfielder than they would usually pack based on their selections to date.

That could be a direct response to the Dogs’ path to victory: stuffing up the middle of the ground and making it really hard for the Crows to get their transition game going.

On recent form, there’s no way the Dogs’ forward line can be trusted to stop the fleet of rebounding defenders and wingmen that the Crows trust to give them drive; their defence looks to start a man short against a high powered Adelaide forward line.

(AAP Image/Tracey Nearmy)

So it becomes a game centred on controlling the middle of the field – particularly the centre square and around stoppages. Adelaide record about a goal a game extra in scores from stoppages than their opponents, where the Dogs are around a goal a game worse off than their opponents.

The Dogs have only selected Jordan Roughead to play in the ruck, meaning he’ll spend most of his time against one of the more physically dominant big men in the game Sam Jacobs. Roberts could spend some time chopping out, but that would leave the Dogs’ back half woefully undersized.

However, having the one ruckman may work to the Dogs’ advantage at ground level, particularly if the team’s midfield can get back to something approaching its swarming best. Beveridge hasn’t been afraid to try the tactical ruck concession tactic either.

Tonight is the first time the Crows have hosted the Dogs at Adelaide Oval – the two teams have rarely faced each other more than once a year in recent years.

The ledger is pretty evenly split too, with both teams winning three of the past six since the Crows moved to their new home, the implication of this being of course that Adelaide have won on the Dogs’ home deck.

Interestingly, the last few games have been high scoring, headlined by the Crows’ 109 to 102 victory over the Dogs in the 2015 elimination final.

It would take something unforeseen for a similar outcome to emerge tonight. Even though Adelaide finds itself out of form, the Dogs are in an even deeper rut, and the Crows loom as stronger in each facet of the game. It’s not a kind match up, and Adelaide should take full toll.

The ‘Scrays don’t get blown out almost ever, and I expect they’ll be able to limit the Crows’ scoring to some degree by gumming up the middle of the ground. So, it’s an Adelaide win by around five goals – a 90 to 60 kind of score line.

That’s my Friday Night Forecast, what’s yours?