It’s been a rough year for the Super Rugby, there’s very little argument about that. But with the competition’s last weekend before us, it shapes as a strong round to finish the season on.
What’s more, at least half a dozen of them are bloody hard picks and could easily go either way.
And while the conference winners won’t change, the finals seeding of those four winners certainly can, as can the seedings for the four wildcard teams.
By my count, five of the nine games in this round can have some kind of bearing on the playoffs, which isn’t bad considering the general commentary around the competition this season.
Last round (Round 16b): Digger and Brett 3; everyone else 2
Brett
So, not unlike the form of the Australian sides this year, the form of the Australian tipping this Super Rugby season has also, to put it bluntly, sucked.
But this is the week I make up ground, and I can think of no better and no more ironic way of doing it than by doing it on the back of Australian teams!
But not the Reds. If they’ve managed to get the snowplough into Dunedin without too much trouble, they’re going to face an all new kind of cold under the roof against the Highlanders.
But the Rebels can play with emotion this week, with Mitch Inman to bid adieu, and Sean McMahon a likely sayonara. They’ll be desperate to finish the season on some semblance of a high, and the Jaguares are notoriously inconsistent.
Kings-Cheetahs is well worth setting the alarm for, and I intend on doing just that. The Blues will have little trouble with the disappointing but still mighty Moondogs. And the Chiefs will probably have similarly little trouble with a Brumbies side I’m led to believe will see a few names resting – but I’m committed!
This revival of mine will be driven in three equal parts of desperation, patriotism, and more desperation, and so I’m sticking with the visitors.
Hurricanes by a lot less than plenty, but gee, this will be a cracking game. I’ll be rushing home from club rugby commentary duty for that one.
The Waratahs were genuinely terrible last weekend, and the Force are riding the wave of anger, momentum, and Hodgo’s farewell. Plus, they’re playing better rugby. That wasn’t one of the aforementioned bloody hard picks, for the record.
The Stormers will be comfortably too good for the Bulls, who I remain angry at after predicting back in February they would top Africa 1. And the Lions will be probably just as comfortably too good for the Sharks, which might just remind people that they’ll take some beating come finals time.
Tips: Highlanders, Rebels, Kings, Blues, Brumbies, Hurricanes, Force, Stormers, Lions.
(AAP Image/Dean Lewins)
Digger
“‘Canes by plenty.
“Highlanders will run rampant in what will be an entertaining game in Dunedin, while I have to back the Jaguares as surely they have too much of something for the Rebels. Surely. The Kings cannot be ignored at home, that should be a fun match to watch.
“The Blues pick themselves, as do the Chiefs in Hamilton. Roarer Piru will be disappointed that I am picking the Force over the Waratahs but Piru, the ‘Tahs have been flat out awful. Should be heaps of niggle though, I like that.
“Anyway, I do give the Sharks a chance against the Lions but how can you pick them? Their form is so unbelievably up and down that the Lions are my tip. The Stormers surely over the Bulls, which means, probably not.”
Tips: Highlanders, Jaguares, Kings, Blues, Chiefs, Hurricanes, Force, Stormers, Lions.
Harry Jones
“Nobes and I are deadlocked in a struggle to the death, with Diggercane lurking like a larger, more robust Barrett brother. Brett is also lurking… deceptively far from the winner’s circle. Farther than far.
“But enough of that. Maybe we are more like a team. A band of brothers. Us versus the mighty Crowd. A version of southern hemisphere Lions.
“OK. This is crucial. I have to get it right. Nobes is a fierce competitor. He’s the Gus Creevy of The Roar.
“The Highlanders will score early and often against the Reds, who will struggle to score at all. The Rebels will lose to the mercurial Jaguares, who may be happy to be away from home.
“The Kings will continue their winning ways against the Cheetahs. Can the Kings finish 10th on the log? Will they be the highest ranked team ever to be relegated from any professional league?
“The Blues will run rampant against the Sunwolves, who were steamrolled in South Africa on successive weekends. The Chiefs will take care of the fading Brumbies. The Hurricanes will play smarter than before and nip the not-so-mighty-any-more Crusaders.
“The Force and the Waratahs will play a rough derby. I think there will be ill blood. I have no idea who will win. I’ll stall on that. The Lions will have a very difficult match against the Sharks in Durban, but I think they will win.
“The Stormers will beat the Bulls using forward dominance and their lethal back three. Did everyone see the tries manufactured by Leyds and Kolbe last week? Magic.
“OK. I’ll pick the damn Tahs. Because the coolest girl on The Roar, Dani, likes them…”
Tips: Highlanders, Jaguares, Kings, Blues, Chiefs, Hurricanes, Waratahs, Lions, Stormers.
(AAP Image/Tracey Nearmy)
Nobes
“Uff!! It is very difficult to tip games when teams are playing for nothing. SANZAAR must rethink this. What will interest people to show up at stadiums or get up at 6:00am to watch an irrelevant game that will not serve any purpose for the competition?
“This next round has some of those games, just like the last round, and my fierce competitors are putting everything on the line to prevent me from reaching the top in solitude. Regardless, here we go with some irrelevant tips for Round 17.
“What will prevent the Highlanders from beating the Reds? If Jaguares play like they did against the Tahs, they will have no problems with the Rebels. As well as Harry, I became a Kings fan and I wish them a good fairway against the also departing Cheetahs.
“Why the Blues have to go to Tokyo to run over the Sunwolves at this point of the tournament beats me. The Brumbies will feel a taste of what the playoff will be like when they lose against the Chiefs.
“Will the Force win what could be their last game in Super Rugby against the Waratahs? I have no idea. Matching man to man the Waratahs should win, but after the lack of attitude displayed on the field against Jaguares makes this call very difficult. Waratahs.
“Lions will show why they are the best team in South Africa and overcome a difficult game against the Sharks. Stormers will gear towards the playoff with a good win over the Bulls.
“Finally, the game of the week! Uff! ‘Canes against the Crusaders. Hurricanes because they are playing at home.
Tips: Highlanders, Jaguares, Kings, Blues, Chiefs, Hurricanes, Waratahs, Stormers, Lions.
Get your tips in now – The Crowd’s tips will be revealed before kick-off in the first game of the weekend.
The Sure Thing
The one thing we’re all absolutely certain will happen over the course of this weekend. Well, pretty certain…
Digger
“There will plenty of blood in Perth, someone will dive in Melbourne, expect a fairly rugged encounter in Wellington as a number of All Blacks look to work their frustration out after the Lions series and a crowd of 50 or so in Pretoria.
“The Kings and Cheetahs will likely play out the most entertaining game on the weekend, too.”
Harry
“Rugby developed through the grassroots of the Eastern Cape, penetrated the soccer stronghold in black Africa, embraced the diversity of styles that could be a blueprint for true transformation in South Africa, a world rugby juggernaut, survived cuts and ridicule and pay disputes, led by an unheralded coach after their president was disgraced, and it worked.
“The Kings are eight places clear of the bottom, and only two log points below a basically international Test team from Argentina, who were supposed to leave them in the dust. But for sure, the Kings are out.
“The Sunwolves have 20 fewer log points, five fewer wins, no traction on crowd attendance, and no clear plan to become competitive. But for sure, they are in.”
Nobes
“This is the most difficult tipping round of all 17.”
Brett
Yet more Monday over-reaction about crowds in Melbourne and Perth. They haven’t been great anywhere in Australia this season, so let’s all save ourselves the angst and give the keyboards the morning off…
Got a sure thing yourself? Let us know in the comments below, and enjoy your rugby this weekend…
MitchO
Guest
Timbo I think the three years is ticking on Peter Grant. He may get back in green and gold yet.
Timbo (L)
Roar Guru
Mitch, I like your line of thinking and I recon all 5(4) SR sides are on the lookout for a supervillain at #10. They are like rocking horse faeces in Australia
MitchO
Guest
MK is another one of those good Fijiian league wingers but i reckon that style is more suited to NRL than rugby. I'd rather a more agile type. Rona seems a lot more agile. MK did a good job as a finisher last week but defence wins big games in any ball sport.
MitchO
Guest
Me too. I will be lurking. Not adding to the crowd stats though coz my mate is os and he has good seats.
piru
Roar Rookie
I don't know a lot about Korobeite I'll be honest, but from what I've seen, what Rona gives away on attack he more than makes up in defence,
piru
Roar Rookie
G'day mate, I'm personally not getting my hopes up, but they are still there. Focussed on a big last game of the year for the moment, and if it turns out to be our last ever... well. I was there at the beginning and at the end
MitchO
Guest
Yeah Piru. Just for fun I compared the NRL tries scored per game played (without factoring in anything intelligent like comparing team lists) and Rona and Korobeiti were really close. MK was a shade better but not much in it. Rona would make a pretty effective block busting style winger. And for mine Bill Meakes was a big clawback for Aussie rugby. Bill exercised the out in his Gloucester contract. Came back. Fulfilled his dream of playing Super Rugby. Surely Gloucester is looking pretty good again if they cut the Force. He'd look a lot better playing outside a creative flyhalf. I am a surprisingly big Peter Grant supporter but Peter does what Peter does. He is no evil genius like Cooper wants to be.
MitchO
Guest
Hi Timbo. My concern with Gus and Stander in particular is that they follow guys like Morahan and even Mitch Inman and head overseas for a payday whilst they are still the valuable side of 30. Heck it does not even have to be for a cash payday. If you are good enough to compete wouldn't you like to move to the south of France for a couple of years? By all accounts John Welbourne had a great time and he was there at the pinnacle of the eye gouging squirrel gripping era. Actually DHP did go to France when he was young and said he loved it. And Fardy went to Japan and matured. And Skelton is going to develop into the lock that our Aussie based coaches could not get him to do. Surely all you had to do was pick him up every morning and take him for an 8 to 10k run. No weights no nutrition no fancy stuff - just a run. Then another one...
piru
Roar Rookie
Yep and now that we're attracting players back from the NRL (Rona, Peni) they want to cut it off again
Brett McKay
Expert
Just under an hour to go in the voting, and it's interesting to see the Hurricanes are preferred to the Crusaders by just 12 votes from well over 250 responses. Close game!
RahRah
Roar Rookie
This is not about what's best for Australian rugby, it's about what's best for the cartel!
ThugbyFan
Roar Guru
Hannes, that's the same argument we are using here in Australia. I look at the Force pack and think "how many of those blokes would have gone to Europe or NRL if there wasn't that SR spot with the Force for them"? Talk about cut your nose off to spite your face. Hopeless thinking.
ThugbyFan
Roar Guru
G'day Piru, after watching the diabolical game last week (Tahs vs Jaguares) I just cannot see the Tahs forward pack of "skinny kids" standing up to A.Coleman et al. Its quite possible the Tahs will go back with their butts spanked. The funniest part of the week was as a Tahs member I receive an Email from the coaching hierarchy giving the Rundown of the past game. Not once did they use the word defence, all we saw was "Oh Los Jaguares got the jump early on us so we were always chasing the game". Talk about "heads in the sand and ostriches". As for the axe hanging over your head I wish you the best mate. For mine NO Australian team should get the chop; for the ARU may as well book 30-40 plane seats to Europe for the player exodus. For what its worth, financial struggles is not the issue nor number of players in various comps within the area. If they were the issues then the Brumbies would be merged with NSW and we look at 2018 with 4 teams, all with large areas and player stocks down to club rugby and juniors. However if the Force do get shafted, then may the Tahs inherit their 2nd rowers and RHP. Its killing the Tahs having powder puffs in the 2nd and back row. Tahs will go nowhere in 2018 unless they get some big blokes with mongrel in them. Plus as many Roar bloggers contend, its a guaranteed step to the WB. :)
piru
Roar Rookie
Coleman, Cummins, Ioane, Shepherd, Stanisforth, Cross the list goes on. Players who would have pulled up stumps and left the country or left rugby altogether This is the thing people don't get - NSW and QLD have a horrible history of talent identification. Losing a team won't concentrate the best players in less teams. It will mean the best players are ignored and go overseas because somebody's mate got the gig ahead of them
Crazy Horse
Roar Pro
Exactly! The same can be said for many of those who got their break through the Force. Hodgson, Pocock, O'Connor, the Hayley-Pettys, Godwin, Hardwick etc, etc, etc. Even Carlo Tizzano just selected for the Australian Schoolboys who no one would have heard of without the RugbyWA Academy which only exists because of the Force.
Muzzo
Guest
As you Chook, but the Force at home, will be difficult, especially the way the Force are playing. Geeeez it would be a crying shame, if the ARU cut these fella's, as what I've witnessed, in the west, as far as the game goes, is sheer growth. It would be madness & stupidity, to do so. Cheers.
Baylion
Roar Rookie
The Lions have been preparing to play the Kiwis in the play-offs throughout the season. They tightened up their defence (conceded only 16 tries in their last 11 games), played a more balanced game, played a more deliberate and controlled game with no helter skelter stuff, cut out the brain farts. They are as prepared as they can be but time will tell if they are prepared enough. I think they are
Fox
Roar Guru
I think the Lions will get found out against Kiwi sides mainly because they haven't played one this season and look what happened to the Bulls last year in the same situation with home game advantage - they got totally skinned Lions are a much better side but they haven't played a side that plays at the pace coupled with the skill levels of the kiwi sides and I think it will show in the finals. Last season the Lions had the benefit of facing Kiwi sides in the normal season before the finals - although they got a bit skinned in Wgtn by the Canes at the end. Wonder which one they would rather play in the quarters at home? Not the Highlanders I wouldn't think with their kicking chase game which can unsettled any side - even the British and Irish Lions
Brett McKay
Expert
Yep, because tipping against a team playing away in a tight game in one game automatically means you've wiped all previous form from that season... :roll:
Brett McKay
Expert
Now, that WOULD be something...