The mess that was the Super Rugby regular season is over and now, the finals begin. Much to the disdain of our New Zealand counterparts, the Brumbies have the home ground advantage against the Hurricanes in the first quarter-final of the 2017 season.
Despite finishing the regular season with a far better record (26 points clear of the Brumbies on the table) the Hurricanes have to travel to Canberra with a squad littered with international talent. They’ll be looking to build off their most recent victory over the Crusaders, a side which had been unbeaten this season.
While the defending Super Rugby champions travel over the Tasman, things may seem a little gloomy for the last team left flying the Australian flag.
The Brumbies, who lost to the Chiefs in Waikato on the weekend, have recorded only six wins this season, none of which were against New Zealand teams. It is only because of the widely criticised Super Rugby format that the Brumbies are still in the competition.
Teams
Beauden Barrett returns to the Hurricanes starting side after missing the game against the Crusaders due to a viral infection. With his brother Jordie at outside-centre after a successful game at fullback for the All Blacks and barnstorming winger Julian Savea in the side, the Brumbies’ defence will be tested by the livewire backline.
Another major boost for the side is that All Blacks hooker and Hurricanes skipper Dan Coles has declared himself fit to play. The inspirational leader will come off the bench after a calf injury and concussion symptoms kept him out of action since Round 4.
Several key players from the Brumbies, including Sam Carter, Tevita Kuridrani, Joe Powell and Allan Alaalatoa, will return to the starting side after enjoying a week off.
(AAP Image/SNPA, Ross Setford)
More significant is the inclusion of Christian Lealiifano in the squad, with the Wallaby named on the bench for the Brumbies. Lealiifano was diagnosed with leukaemia last year and has made an impressive return to rugby, training for the last three months and playing for the Brumbies in Singapore in June.
History
While the Hurricanes have enjoyed an excellent season coming off the back of their first ever Super Rugby championship, there is interesting history between the two teams.
In April this year, they thrashed the Brumbies 56-21, scoring six second half tries in what was an attacking rugby clinic.
Coincidentally, the most recent victory the Brumbies have had against a New Zealand side was against the Hurricanes in the first round of the 2016 season. They beat their opponents 52-10 and infamously labelled the side as unfit after the game, the same side that went on to win the competition.
The Brumbies’ core group of players know what to expect in Super Rugby finals.
They are Australia’s most successful club and have produced some memorable finals performances in recent years, the most noteworthy being their 2013 semi-final effort in Pretoria against the Bulls. The Brumbies ground out a 23-26 win and set up a grand final fixture against the Chiefs, which they would ultimately lose.
In the 2015 Super Rugby semi-finals, the Hurricanes beat the Brumbies 29-9, and in the 1997 semi-finals, they downed the Hurricanes 33-20.
Attack meets defence
The Hurricanes arguably have the most dangerous attacking team in the competition. Their star-studded back line, headlined by halves duo TJ Perenara and Beauden Barrett, will continue their dominant attacking play.
Exceptional skills, teamwork and individual brilliance have resulted in the team scoring 89 tries and making 218 clean line breaks this season.
The Brumbies, on the other hand, started the season as the best defensive team in the competition. While this title has come under dispute in recent weeks, their performance against the Chiefs will sure up any doubters about their defensive prowess.
The Brumbies have an 86 per cent tackle success rate in 2017, and more impressively, a 94 per cent scrum success rate.
It has long been known that set piece is where the Brumbies’ strength truly lies, and they will undoubtedly try to capitalise on this against the Hurricanes, who have conceded 140 penalties this season.
(AAP Image/SNPA, Ross Setford)
Prediction
The Hurricanes travel to Canberra on a wave of confidence, gained by a great season and a strong performance against the Crusaders. The passion and determination that is evident whenever they take the field is something all Australian sides should strive for.
The defending champions will look to replicate their performance against the Brumbies earlier in the season, when they convincingly ran their opposition into the ground.
That being said, the Brumbies have the experience, rest and a home ground advantage. A vocal home crowd must count for something, especially in the finals.
With the added inspiration of Lealiifano joining the team after ten months, the Brumbies should be fired up. Don’t expect them to roll over easily and record Australian rugby’s 26th defeat against a New Zealand side this year.
As an Australian rugby fan, I must cling to something, and these slight advantages seem like a good beacon of hope.
Brumbies 27-18
Rugby Tragic
Roar Rookie
And I believe he is no Ben Smith at fullback either, on defence or attack.... but he is only 20 .... I reckon he will learn and will be an All Black for 10 years or more...
The Neutral View From Sweden
Roar Guru
How much experience does Jordie Barrett have at outside centre? I really rate him as a fullback, he has looked dangerous. He is pretty versatile and can play pretty much at any back position bar scrumhalf. On attack, he is lethal wherever he plays, and last week he did alright as outside center against the Saders. But he is no Jonathan Davies on defense, that is for sure.
jonnyacidseed
Roar Rookie
Geez Timbo, The writer is very aware of the fact the Canes have the firepower and will most likely bash the Brumbies, but lets not just absolutely write them off. I mean, where is the fun and sportsmanship in that?
Markus
Guest
How much experience does Jordie Barrett have at outside centre? I really rate him as a fullback, he has looked dangerous. As a Brumbies fan though, I am hoping his appearance at outside centre is more akin to that of Christian Cullen.
robert
Guest
canes by plenty With the added inspiration of Lealiifano joining the team after ten months.....you can say the same about Coles That being said, the Brumbies have the experience, rest and a home ground advantage.......experience, the canes are last years champs and have played in the last two finals....rest, is that a good thing against harden match players who just bet the saders and drew with the lions.....home ground advantage, numbed out by the fact that the ref is a kiwi, the same one the canes had last week!
gary
Guest
Rhys I'd back the hurricanes with even 15% possession!
Tim Reynolds
Guest
Some authors let their partiality get in the way of objective analysis. If I want to read an article that lauds the Brumbies and picks them to win, I'll go to the Brumbies' website. People have mentioned the potency of the Hurricanes backline, and fair enough you've got 6 ABs in the run on side and one to come on later, but there are also 3 ABs in the forwards with Coles to come on at some stage. An AB laden Crusaders pack was not able to overwhelm the Hurricanes last week so what chance have the Brumbies? The only thing in the Brumbies favour is that miracles do happen, as the Boks found against the Japanese. But if you're relying on miracles you're in trouble.
Rhys Bosley
Guest
If the Brumbies can hold the Canes to below about 20% possession, they might nullify that back line enough to get the win. Good luck.
FrancisF
Roar Pro
As sports people, we try to give the underdogs a bigger cheer and hopefully they can upstage the expected winner. Although the Brumbies have home ground advantage, but its record over the Super Rugby season against teams across the Tasman can only be described as " Poor to Very Poor." Yes I would want Brumbies to win for a variety of reasons, one of which is, at least there is a little light shining through the current darkness in Australian rugby , but I will be hard pressed to expect a Brumbies's win... "to hope", yes. RIght now, we may need some small miracle from the sky or some voodoo intervention to get the Brumbies to cross the line. The Hurricanes on paper look strong... but then, anything can happen on the day. So, say a little prayer for the Brumbies.
Timbo (L)
Roar Guru
I hope it is close but with the firepower of 2 Barrett's and 2 Savia's and Brad Shields your money has to be with the Canes.
Muzzo
Guest
In the past, the Canes have had a little trouble with Brumbies in Canberra, but I do think, that this time around, they will be the team to beat. With the return of Dane Coles, who will be coming off the wood, & the way the Canes have been finishing their games, of late, the team as a whole, just has too much class. I'm sure, fellow roarer, Diggercane,will attest to this. Go the Canes, as if it is only by just the one point, a win is a win, but I'm sure it will be by far more.
zubrick
Guest
i cant see the brumbies defending against the canes all black backs for eighty minutes these guys are superfit and sharp after the lions series if the brumbies can starve them of quick clean ball for the entire match the result may be close cant see it happening tho....canes backs will shred us in the last quarter and win convincingly
Cooper Morrison
Guest
Brumbies by 42
puff
Guest
Even with the pies, home crowd advantage, plus a cold Canberra twilight, the winning formula will still be desire. This inner ability has been non-existent in most OZ, SR teams to date and this late in the season I would be amazed if the Brumbies could silence the detractors. The Canes look the business and have that edge, which I find absent in our OZ teams. The Canes by 15+.
woodart
Guest
the fans should turn out whatever the weather, force fans do.
Ballymore Brumby
Roar Pro
Can the Brumbies win? Of course. And hopefully plenty of people turn out tonight, as its going to be pretty bitter weather wise lol Will there be a lot of unhappy bookies tomorrow morning? Probably not though.
Kashmir Pete
Roar Guru
Game on! If the Brumbies stay close (eg can keep Hurricanes down to a couple of tries) Cheika should think about swapping Grey and Larkham's roles (or at least bring ACT defence coach into Wallabies). Seriously KP
nmpcart
Guest
Good to see Dane Coles and Christian back, no matter what team you support - great players and it was quite concerning Coles being out for so long with concussion symptoms, and for CLL a really positive recovery story. Hopefully it will be a good game by both sides - the Brumbies surprised me last week how competitive they were against the Chiefs but the Hurricanes minus Beauden were still so good against the Crusaders.
Canetragic
Guest
Canes by plenty
Riccardo
Guest
Appreciate the enthusiasm. Admire your confidence. Here's a number for you: 27