It is a night for nostalgia and celebration, with a sprinkle of finals football potential thrown in for good measure. A huge crowd is expected, and a giant TV audience assured. Peculiarities abound, and here’s the forecast.
Tonight is the last time Hawthorn’s Luke Hodge will wear the brown and gold on the field. After multiple premierships and more than 300 games of football, the departure of Hodge is part of the evolution of the Hawthorn list, and the transition from a phenomenally successful era to one characterised by a set of new challenges.
The Western Bulldogs are also, perhaps, farewelling storied veterans. Captain Robert Murphy, who cruelly missed out on last year’s premiership from a playing perspective, leaves the game with a complicated legacy. Fellow journeyman Matthew Boyd, the accumulating midfielder reborn as a mid-sized defender at the tail end of his career, will also finish up at the end of this year.
(AAP Image/Julian Smith)
We say end of the year because there is a faint chance the Western Bulldogs can jag the eight seed this weekend. Should the Dogs lose, they would need all of Essendon, West Coast and St Kilda to lose by fairly large margins – ok ridiculously large margins, like 30 goals – then the Dogs could make it in. If they Dogs win though, then they either require losses across the board regardless of margin, or for their win to be so much larger than teams they are looking to overtake that they will do it.
Either case is a long shot, and although these Dogs specialise in long shots this is like shooting an apple clean off someone’s head with an elastic band fired from your fingers: physically possible but good luck.
Both teams are using tonight’s game to unveil a 2016 draftee, with the Western Bulldogs handing a debut to Patrick Lipinski and Hawthorn to Harry Morrison. The Hawks made an additional change, with Liam Shiels returning from a hip complaint – Ricky Henderson and Ryan Burton make way with injuries. The Western Bulldogs made two additional changes, with Matthew Boyd coming in for his potential farewell game along with Tom Campbell; Travis Cloke, Jake Stringer and Tory Dickson out of the team.
As one keen Western Bulldogs supporter noted on Twitter, the changes mean the entirety of the forward group many pundits – including myself – looked to as being a path for the Dogs to get better in 2017 is sitting on the pine. It’s a neat encapsulation of the struggles of the team following their premiership in 2016.
There’s not a whole heap to analyse in this game, given the stakes are so low and both sides, by their selections, seem to be treating the fixture with a little more levity than usual.
We don’t have a 2017 game to break down, either. Tonight is the first time the Hawks and Dogs face off this season, and it’s the last game of the season.
Last time they met, the Hawks were the aging champion and the Dogs the plucky newcomer. Hawthorn had been pipped at the line by Geelong in a qualifying final, where Footscray had disembowelled the West Coast Eagles in an elimination final the night prior. On that night, the Dogs won the contested possession count by a truly mind blowing 50 possessions, which dulled the ability for the Hawks to get the ball on the outside – the crutch they were leaning on to guard against their unsteady legs. There was a clear identity, on both sides, and we know who won the day.
(AAP Image/Julian Smith)
Tonight, well, what are these two teams? The Dogs have devolved to a jumbled mess forward of the ball, unable to capitalise on their young and productive midfield unit. The Hawks are half way through a list transition, and have switched up their tactics midstream after a poor start to the year.
Neither coach will be keen to try anything too outlandish given the respect that will be rightly afforded to the quartet of retiring veterans. Nor will they be keen to reveal anything they may be whiteboarding ahead of their 2018 campaigns.
So what are we left with? A game that we can enjoy for what it is: a low stakes encounter, between two teams looking to send off two storied figures in their clubs and continue their respective journeys back to contention – which vary in length.
As to the victor, it’s hard to look at the Western Bulldogs forward line and think it will be able to produce a competitive score. For all their issues, Hawthorn have been able to put up 90 points a game over the past two months, including three score in three figures. By contrast, the Dogs’ scoring has slowed to a trickle against all but the worst of the worst this season has offered up.
Footscray had posted six straight positive inside 50 differentials – indeed, the Dogs have the best inside 50 differential of any team between Round 16 and Round 21 at +16 – but outscored their opponents by just 1.8 points per week. It’s incredible. On this alone the Hawks should feel confident of victory.
That’s the way I’m leaning. For a bit of fun, let’s play a game to work out the margin. Over the course of their careers, Josh Gibson (also retiring but not playing) and Hodge have played in 143 and 179 wins respectively, compared to Boyd and Murphy at 146 and 140. 143 + 179 = 322; 146 + 140 = 286; 322 – 286 = 36.
Hawthorn will win tonight, by 36 points. That’s my Friday night forecast, what’s yours?
Aransan
Guest
Too high? He will lose a lot of trade value if he stays at the Dogs and has another season like this one. Perhaps all he needs is a change to get back to where he was and that would be a win-win situation.
Mark
Guest
Stringer 6-8? AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Raimond
Roar Guru
The Bulldogs have gone back into their kennel as far as scoring is concerned, so I'd lean toward the Hawks on that factor alone. Hawthorn by 28.
BigAl
Guest
This bizarre/unpredictable 2017 season never ceases to amaze !! Here we are, last regular round of the season and Friday Night Football is a match between two sides that won't be playing finals footy !
I ate pies
Guest
No matter what happens tonight the channel 7 coverage will be nauseous.
Mango Jack
Roar Guru
It's going to be a pretty emotional in the both dressing rooms tonight. Personally, I'd love to see Hodge singing "We're the mighty team" one last time. He's up there with Lethal and Tuck as a Hawk legend. Can't believe this will be the last time we see that distinctive kicking style.
MG
Roar Rookie
Shock, horror ... it might just be fair.
Mattyb
Guest
Lol,Aransan,I sound the opposite because I'm being honest and I'm not a Sheriff. I think the dogs might look to trade but it depends on value. I wouldn't trade Stringer because of his upside but he needs to pull his finger out,he was AA two years ago. If I was going to make a drastic trade I'd look at Libba,but I still wouldn't do that. I think we need a ruckman and then put our big forward investment on the forward line in Boyd,but like you said a cheap developing forward would be a good idea. I think our biggest strength last year is now our biggest weekness,to many onballers and we then therefore don't have enough natural forwards. To many players to similar,so your logic I agree with. Totally agree that some of our players are developing into good C graders and that's it,I'd struggle to honestly rate some of our big players a C. I think we might trade Webb but I doubt he's worth much. Could probably get value for Dunkley,maybe Smith,we have plenty of those types. Daniel would be a brave option and he'd have value. Williams would be a silly option as he'd be not worth much on the open market. Roughead might be worth something,a jack of all trades,master of none,but he is at least big.Wallis would probably be worth something and a good trade,we have plenty of hims to. On Stringer,if he doesn't start playing to his potential his value will drop,he needs more support though but I think he's secretly a bit soft,plays the tough man but doesn't commit 100% when he needs to. Super explosive when it suits him.
Birdman
Guest
In Melbs for Hodgey's last. I don't have words to describe how much this guy means to Hawks fans. In the rarified pantheon of gold and brown greats. Expecting a contest, hoping for a win. Also pleased to be seeing off Murphy and Boyd who are two champs from my (everyones?) second team. Go Hawks!
Aransan
Guest
Matty, you are beginning to sound like a Carlton supporter commenting on the Dogs. Trade Stringer for a pick in the range 6-8, recruit key position players and especially look at big players about 20-22y.o. who can be obtained cheaply through the draft or rookie draft -- look at the way Hartley and Stewart were recruited by Essendon. Clubs are too impatient to develop big players and there are some bargains around, they may only develop into B-grade but at the moment I would only rate a couple of your bigger players as C-grade.
Mattyb
Guest
I can't see the Dogs winning this and Ryan's margin is about right. The dogs are playing terrible,the gameplans completely shot,the skill level is just awful. Also the dogs forward line has no forwards,just excess onballers plonked on the forward line. The dogs have struggled to score this year and I see this getting a whole lot worse tonight. Both teams have some terrific players retiring so it will be good to see some of them leave with a victory,whichever side it is.
Mattyb
Guest
Gibbo,quality post. Probably more suited to something like Facebook though.
Seano
Roar Rookie
I hope they play Bob one out in the goal square! Old school cool for an old school player!
Aransan
Guest
If the Dogs win by 30 points more than St.Kilda's winning margin then they will make the eight if both Essendon and the Eagles lose. The odds aren't ridiculous.
Brian
Guest
If the Dogs can get up by 278 points they can then focus on putting their % ahead of Essendon's. My feeling is WB will win. When Clarko said in his presser that Hodge's career won't hinge on this game I think he is also saying we care very little about winning it. Not sure the Dogs are much different dropping Dickson can surely only be a message. Still the little bit of what should get the Dops accross by a small margin.
jacques of Lilydale
Guest
Well done Ryan, an economist's interpretation of a winning scenario. Interesting to see how the Hawks will fire without their up and coming star Burton running off the half back line. Henderson has also been handy and he's missing as well. Luke Hodge is irreplaceable, so for me the biggest issue Hawthorn has going forward is on field leadership. Not sure Roughy has the nous or persona for that. It will be a major re-set night for the Hawks as Luke Hodge departs the scene.
Gibbo
Guest
Hard fir teg umpires tonight. Which fairytale do they manufacture and expand for their 2 pet clubs?
Mick_Lions
Roar Pro
Love how you concoct a winning margin based on games played by 4 players! Are you on to something Ryan?