The Lions are on the long road back to roaring again

Howdy Roarers. The home-and-away season is done and dusted, and I have had the idea in my head for a little while now that I’d like to sit down at the end of the year and review every club.

AFL list management series
17 – Gold Coast Suns
16 – Carlton Blues
15 – North Melbourne Kangaroos
14 – Fremantle Dockers
13 – Collingwood Magpies
12 – Hawthorn Hawks
11 – St Kilda Saints
10 – Western Bulldogs
9 – Melbourne Demons
8 – Essendon Bombers
7 – Port Adelaide Power
6 – West Coast Eagles
5 – Sydney Swans
4 – GWS Giants
3 – Geelong Cats

Originally the plan was to do a more traditional season review, but the more I thought about it the more I realised what I really wanted to talk about was the future.

For that reason, we’re going to talk mostly about list management, and what kind of moves each club will make in free agency, the trade period and at the draft.

I called up my close personal friend Gilly McLachlan (I call him Gilly), and he was happy to make sure there’s a pre-finals bye again this year so we’ll have time to review all ten clubs who didn’t qualify before the finals begin.

One last thing before we get underway – I’m a shameless self-promoter, so if you’ve not done so already make sure you also check out my twelve quick takes from Round 23, published last night.

Alright, let’s get started with the Brisbane Lions.

2017 in short

It’s a bit odd that the Lions won the wooden spoon this year, as they managed to avoid it in 2015 and 2016 when they probably shouldn’t have, and now in 2017 have copped it when they probably ought to have avoided it again.

They were quite a poor team in the first half of the year, only scoring one win before the bye – and that was by less than a goal, over Gold Coast in Round 1.

However Chris Fagan began to see the fruits of his labour after the bye, and it resulted in the Lions winning four games in the latter half of the year, including one over an eventual finalist, Essendon.

Their season ended with a disappointing big-margin loss to North Melbourne on Saturday, but regardless, there are plenty of positives to take from their improved form in the latter half of 2017.

If you’re keen on a more detailed summary of the Lions’ season, check out Stirling Coates’ 2017 season review.

Coach

Chris Fagan may have been in his ‘rookie’ season as a senior coach but, having an extensive tenure at Hawthorn prior to his accepting the role, is in some ways one of the AFL’s most experienced coaches.

Under his tutelage, the Lions have played an attacking style of footy that bodes well for the future. While they conceded plenty of points this year, they scored plenty too.

When the time comes in the future for the Lions to rise up the ladder, the current crop of youth will feel very comfortable playing attacking football.

Despite the Lions finishing last on the table, Fagan’s first year was about as great a success as could be reasonably hoped for, and he looks able to be a long-term servant of the club.

Captain

Dayne Beams took over leadership of the playing group at the start of the year and no doubt played a key role in the Lions’ ultimately positive year.

On a personal note, he played by far his best season for the Lions so far, with his form in the latter half of the year in particular reminiscent of his elite 2012 season at Collingwood.

The 27-year-old will likely remain the Lions’ skipper for the foreseeable future.

(Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)

List management

There are two ways we’re going to look at every club’s list – by age, and by contract status. We’ll start with age.

There’s some clear age stratification on Brisbane’s list. At the top we have a few talented veterans in Stefan Martin (30), Dayne Zorko, Mitch Robinson (both 28), Dayne Beams and Tom Rockliff (both 27) who form the mature leadership core of the team.

At the opposite end, we can see the next generation coming through. It starts at around Sam Mayes (23), continues through Lewis Taylor, Tom Cutler, Nick Robertson, Daniel McStay (all 22), Darcy Gardiner (21), Harris Andrews, Rhys Mathieson, Ben Keays, Cedric Cox, Josh Schache (all 20) and Eric Hipwood (19), before we arrive at the very youngest of cubs, like Jarrod Berry, Hugh McCluggage (also both 19) and Alex Witherden (18).

However, there’s a big gap between Tom Rockliff and Sam Mayes on the list, and most of the players in between are of little consequence or well out of touch with the best 22.

What we’re seeing there is the impact of the lost generation of Lions – guys like Elliot Yeo and Sam Docherty should have been the maturing stars in this section of the list.

What’s clear is that the Lions have a very strong young generation coming through – there are 15 players mentioned above who have shown enough to suggest they can be above average or better when they mature.

(AAP Image/Glenn Hunt)

Most promising is that they’ve already got most of a future spine sorted. Eric Hipwood can become one of the absolute top-shelf superstars of the game, and meshes well with Josh Schache – and they can build their backline around Harris Andrews.

The other young Lion I’m particularly taken with is first-year half-back Alex Witherden. He didn’t make his debut until the latter half of the season, but has looked like a 100-game veteran ever since.

There may be some rough years ahead when the veterans move on and the younger players are still a while off coming into their prime, however, if they stick fat there’s no reason the five-years-from-now Brisbane Lions shouldn’t be a team that others fear.

Brisbane Lions players by age
Stefan Martin – 30yr 9mth
Dayne Zorko – 28yr 6mth
Mitch Robinson – 28yr 2mth
Rohan Bewick – 27yr 10mth
Matt Eagles (R) – 27yr 6mth
Dayne Beams – 27yr 6mth
Tom Rockliff – 27yr 6mth
Daniel Rich – 27yr 2mth
Allen Christensen – 26yr 3mth
Tom Bell – 26yr 2mth
Ryan Bastinac – 26yr 2mth
Ryan Harwood – 26yr
Claye Beams – 25yr 11mth
Jack Frost – 25yr 6mth
Ryan Lester – 25yr
Josh Walker – 24yr 9mth
Blake Grewar (R) – 24yr 6mth
Jonathan Freeman – 23yr 4mth
Sam Mayes – 23yr 3mth
Oscar McInerney (R) – 23yr 1mth
Michael Close – 23yr
Marco Paparone – 22yr 11mth
Lewis Taylor – 22yr 6mth
Tom Cutler – 22yr 6mth
Jarrad Jansen – 22yr 3mth
Nick Robertson – 22yr 2mth
Daniel McStay – 22yr 2mth
Archie Smith – 22yr 1mth
Darcy Gardiner – 21yr 11mth
Jake Barrett (R) – 21yr 9mth
Josh Clayton – 21yr 7mth
Liam Dawson – 21yr 7mth
Matthew Hammelmann (R) – 21yr 5mth
Cian Hanley (R) – 21yr 5mth
Harris Andrews – 20yr 8mth
Rhys Mathieson – 20yr 7mth
Ben Keays – 20yr 6mth
Sam Skinner – 20yr 1mth
Cedric Cox – 20yr
Josh Schache – 20yr
Eric Hipwood – 19yr 11mth
Reuben William (R) – 19yr 7mth
Jarrod Berry – 19yr 6mth
Hugh McCluggage – 19yr 5mth
Jacob Allison – 19yr 4mth
Corey Lyons – 19yr 2mth
Mitchell Hinge (R) – 19yr 2mth
Alex Witherden – 18yr 11mth

Looking at the Lions in terms of contract status, it almost feels a bit weird saying it given the events of past years, but they have very few worries in this area.

The only player of any real consequence that is out of contract at the end of this year is Tom Rockliff. We’ll talk about him a bit later.

Looking ahead to 2018, the two key signatures to lock up will be Hugh McCluggage and Alex Witherden.

Get those two to put pen to paper, and it is smooth sailing ahead.

Brisbane Lions players by contract status
2021
Harris Andrews
Daniel Rich

2020
Cedric Cox
Eric Hipwood
Dayne Zorko

2019
Ryan Bastinac
Dayne Beams
Jarrod Berry
Tom Cutler
Liam Dawson
Jack Frost
Darcy Gardiner
Ben Keays
Stefan Martin
Rhys Mathieson
Sam Mayes
Daniel McStay
Marco Paparone
Nick Robertson
Josh Schache
Sam Skinner
Lewis Taylor

2018
Jacob Allison
Tom Bell
Rohan Bewick
Allen Christensen
Ryan Lester
Corey Lyons
Hugh McCluggage
Mitch Robinson
Archie Smith
Josh Walker
Alex Witherden

Out of contract
Claye Beams
Josh Clayton
Michael Close
Jake Barrett (R)
Matt Eagles (R)
Jonathan Freeman
Matthew Hammelmann (R)
Cian Hanley (R)
Ryan Harwood
Mitchell Hinge (R)
Jarrad Jansen
Oscar McInerney (R)
Tom Rockliff
Reuben William (R)

(Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)

Delistings and retirements

No Brisbane Lions players have announced their retirements as yet, and none are expected to. There haven’t been any confirmed delistings as yet either, but expect that to come soon.

Probably just about all the players who are out of contract bar Rockliff would be potential delistings, though at least some will be kept for depth, and many of the rookie-listers, in particular, will be given longer to develop.

Free agency

Claye Beams (unrestricted)
Ryan Harwood (unrestricted)
Tom Rockliff (restricted)

The Lions would no doubt be happy to let Beams or Harwood go if there is another club out there than wants them, but that seems unlikely at best.

Where things really get interesting is former captain – and current vice-captain – Tom Rockliff, who strongly considered a move to a new club last year.

I suspect that largely fell through because there wasn’t a club out there willing to spend the trade capital need to acquire him.

Now that he is a free agent, that might prove to be a different story, and the fact he is yet to re-sign suggests he is very much testing the market.

Both Port Adelaide and Adelaide have been rumoured to be interested in his services, but there’s yet to be any talk strongly tying him to one particular destination.

Rockliff has said he will make the best decision for his family, which likely means that he’ll happily move to a new club if they can give him a good financial offer.

From the Lions’ perspective, it’s not the worst idea to let him go and personally, I suspect they’d prefer that result. While he’s a valuable part of that older leadership core, it would not collapse in his absence.

Rockliff’s departure would most likely net the Lions either an end-of-first-round or second-round compensation pick, which is essentially the same thing given they finished last – certainly a valuable piece.

(Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)

The Lions likely won’t consider making any free agency signings of their own, as doing so would reduce the value of the compensation pick awarded for Rockliff’s departure.

However, should Rockliff stay, it would be worth them considering their options here.

Jackson Trengove could be someone to make a play for as he would provide a mature body in defence, and the Lions don’t really have a senior leader in that part of the ground.

Along the same line of thought, it would be worth getting in contact with Jarrad McVeigh should the Sydney Swans, as expected, not offer him a new contract.

The 2012 premiership co-captain could give the defenders and the list as a whole the benefit of his experience first as a player and then in 2019 and beyond as an assistant coach.

Trade period

At this stage, it looks like the Lions will get through October without having to trade any players away from the club, which must surely be a pleasant prospect for Brisbane fans.

In terms of players coming in, the main one they’ve been linked to is Adelaide’s Charlie Cameron, and there’s been a bit of back and forth in the media between Chris Fagan and Don Pyke about him.

Cameron is contracted to the Crows until the end of 2018, and Pyke has publicly stated that the Crows will hold him to that contract.

Despite that, it does seem quite likely that he’ll request a trade, and the Crows wouldn’t be the first team to talk a big game only to break down and make a deal.

Cameron would be a great addition to the Lions’ young generation. At 23 years old he’s at the upper end of that age bracket and could spend many years as a speedy goal-kicking winger for Brisbane.

If a deal does go ahead, I’d expect the Lions will have to give up a draft pick somewhere in the teens to secure him. They could have as many as three, so it’s a price they’ll be happy to pay.

(AAP Image/Ben Macmahon)

The other player the Lions have been linked to is GWS’ Jacob Hopper, but he seems more likely to go to Victoria than to Queensland.

Draft

First three rounds: 1, Port Adelaide’s first-round pick, 19, 37.

Depending on how free agency and trading goes, the Lions could hold as many as four picks inside the first twenty, and so seem set for another strong year at the draft.

Chris Fagan says he wants a hybrid midfielder with the prized No.1 selection – Cam Rayner would be the leading contender, but the Lions will also do their homework on Luke Davies-Uniacke and a bolter in Paddy Dow.

At some point the Lions will have to match a bid on Academy prospect Connor Ballenden. He’s a 199cm key position prospect who will most likely slot into their lineup as the third tall in support of Hipwood and Schache.

The Lions don’t have any specific list needs they need to address, so they can afford to just take whoever they think the best prospect on the board is with their remaining picks.

(Photo by Robert Prezioso/AFL Media/Getty Images)

Outlook

The Lions may have finished last this year, but I’ll be surprised if we spot them there again in the foreseeable future.

While the veteran core of Martin, Zorko, Robinson and Beams remain, there’s a chance that their good form can dovetail with the rise of the young guns, and drive the Lions swiftly up the ladder.

That might happen in say the next two or three years. After that, I would expect a leveling-out process to occur when those players retire, as the younger brigade may not quite be ready to step into their shoes.

When they do come of age though, watch out. If they play their cards right, the Brisbane Lions can be premiership contenders around say the mid-2020s.