Could a Thailand loss be the Socceroos' dream scenario?

By Football_Wunderkind / Roar Pro

Australia should defeat Thailand on Tuesday night but the important question to ask is “how much?”.

Of course, ‘how many’ goals do they need to score is a pressing question also, because currently Australia is two goals behind Saudi Arabia – who are on the same number of points.

Don’t get me wrong, I adore the Socceroos immensely and wish to see them qualify for the World Cup by thrashing Thailand on Tuesday night but how much money could the FFA make if things don’t go our way?

If Australia qualify directly for Russia, the FFA stands to receive $12 million from FIFA, with $10 million of that being prize money and the remainder is to be used for preparation.

$10 million is a lot of money and not be sniffed at but how much more money could the FFA collect if Australia finishes third and misses out on direct qualification?

Back in 2005 when Australia played Uruguay at Stadium Australia there were conservative estimates of $12 – $15 million dollars earned.

Part 1 of Australia’s qualifying ‘Moneyball’ play-off run would see Australia pitted against historic rivals Korea. Korea are currently second in their group but play away to Uzbekistan, who will be desperate to win to secure their own qualification.

Facing Korea is a very real prospect and would sell out Stadium Australia of the MCG in hours. I prefer a Stadium Australia match as it was the venue for the 2015 Asian Cup final and a rematch there would be prefect.

There would be $15 million generated for that game and after we defeat a goal-shy Korean side we move on to face the fourth best team in North/Central America.

Part 2, in the FFA bean counters dreams, would see us pitted against Team USA. Currently third but equal on points with fourth-placed Honduras and only three games to play, the Yankees are stuttering bigly.

Again it is a real possibility that the USA finish fourth and that would set up a massive final play-off for World Cup qualification. Play this one at the MCG and cram in 95,000 people and you would generate more than $15 million.

Conservative estimates put a successful Socceroos indirect World Cup qualification run via Korea and then the USA at around $45 million. This is money that could be used to turbo boost grass roots football in Australia and help grow the game for years to come.

The biggest part of me wishes that Australia had secured qualification already but they deserve to be in this precarious position after some of their recent uninspiring performances. A smaller part of me still desires the unbearable tension that was created in 2005 when we faced Uruguay at Stadium Australia.

I leave it to the readers. Given the choice, do you take the $10 million for direct qualification, or would you like to see four more high-pressure Socceroos matches and a possible collect of $45 million?

The Crowd Says:

2017-09-04T18:00:36+00:00

Glynn

Guest


Those playoff rounds are in reality incredibly unlikely. Firstly, South Korea are still favourites to knick second place, as are Australia. The United States, while playing fairly sloppy at the moment, have a far easier run home than their opponents for the third place. Either way Australia would benefit more from direct qualification.

2017-09-04T03:42:15+00:00

Griffo

Roar Guru


JB - I think it's well established that Ange likes to mix things up to keep everyone, even his own players, on their proverbial toes. I would agree with you although you would have to also look at how Chile played and compare to Japan setup. Also some players not fit enough may have weighed in. But true enough we can't look at the Chile game in the past and go 'See! we are good' if we don't put in similar performances against different opposition, with different players, under different conditions (short camp pre WCQ vs long camp for a tournament) - play for the now, plan for the future, don't relive the past. A lot of variables...

2017-09-04T03:37:05+00:00

Griffo

Roar Guru


The memory may be leaking others opinions of Asian qualifying vs once-in-four-years meaningful tie but I thought Foz was for Asian qualifying originally. If he truely believes this one-in-four is psychologically beneficial then he's off his proverbial goal line a bit too far :lol:

2017-09-04T03:33:55+00:00

Griffo

Roar Guru


For sure, for all the cost of accomodation and flight etc. these extra legs would entail over any potential windfall (or lack thereof if not WC qualification)... ...yeah I don't think so ;-)

2017-09-04T03:27:14+00:00

Another Paul

Guest


I have to disagree, there is plenty of room for error. All we need is Japan not to lose and us to win by any score that's the best case scenario. worst case qualifying scenario we lose 1 - nil and saudi lose 4 - nil and we overtake Saudi on goal diff. There are plenty of qualifying scenarios in between.

2017-09-04T02:57:34+00:00

Pauly

Guest


Why did I read this rubbish?

2017-09-04T02:32:49+00:00

chris

Guest


KS Im looking forward to watching the Matildas playing in front of a sell out crowd. The atmosphere will be great and well done FFA for scheduling the game on a fit for purpose ground.

2017-09-04T01:46:02+00:00

valhalla

Guest


and soccerinas get their knickers in knot wondering why folks from across the sporting codes comment here good lawd

2017-09-04T01:04:22+00:00

Stevo

Roar Rookie


Read Ange's book "Changing the Game." Full blown self belief on display but also a 'healthy' dose of stubbornness. The trouble is that Ange wants to play a modern style requiring deft touch on the ball and intricate movement - but with second division players. It's OK in club football where you can work with players week in week out and develop the style and team cohesion, but when you have a squad that comes together occasionally you surely have to tailor the team formation and strategy to suit the cattle that you have. Surely! And why not start Jamie Maclaren as a true striker and then replace with Juric in the second half, and why have Brad Smith start more games for the national team that he's started for this club side. Absolutely baffling stuff.

2017-09-04T00:46:18+00:00

Ken Spacey

Guest


Australia needs to qualify as quickly and directly as possible. The mega blockbuster at the MCG actually plays into the hands of the Melbourne Events Mafia as I call them. Football does not matter in the day by day sense but we'll drag it out once or wice a year and the MCG can host another big event and all the CBD hotel and and entertainment barons can make some quick bucks. You also have to spend a fortune to keep the team active and fly them around for more months and put Mooy's first year in EPL under duress. Huddersfield getting through first year is critical for our cred too. Besides the money at the MCG will in part go to keeping it as an oval sport venue while Stadium Australia is in theory (NSW govt waivering?) becoming a true rectangular sport venue which is a massive win for football and co and a massive screw you to the AFL expansionists. Regardless of who's running the show you can't spruik sponsorship, TV deals as a non finalist. If Vic govt cares so much why have we played one HAL final and this vital WCQ at a 30,000 seat venue? Congrats to Matildas selling out Penrith, very timely.

2017-09-04T00:26:50+00:00

Grobbelaar

Roar Guru


In the current WC qualification series, we have averaged 1.55 goals per game and conceded 1.1 goals per game. If the latter had been 0.9 goals per game, we virtually would have qualified by now, these are the margins we are talking about. Depending on what happens in the Saudi v Japan game, Australian scoring 2 goals against Thailand may well be enough.

2017-09-04T00:21:43+00:00

Tony

Guest


The best thing would be for Ange to get fired after not qualifying for this WC. This is the Damn easiest route to WC, Australia will ever have in last 5 decades. Yet Ange is making a hash of it. Why? Because he is adamant on playing the tactics tiky-taka style and comparing this socceroos outfit to that of Barcelona or Spanish national side. This is absurd and is clearly the reason we been getting these type of results. Loosing to Minnows in Asia and not even competing with Mid ranking tiers nations. Only nations in Top 5 such as Italy or Germany may able to implement this kind of tactics 3-4-3 from the book onto the pitch. Yet Ange seem like he is HAPPY to sacrifice the result and where Australia go in terms of progress. He is using Socceroos as a platform to try and show that somehow he is aware of the new tactics and someone who can coach a team into playing these system. Sadly I just feel Ange is using socceroos as a platform to try and prove to future employers or clubs who are interested in him to prove that on his CV, he coach Socceroos these new tactics and that he can show how he does it. This is really baffling to say the least.

2017-09-03T23:58:22+00:00

j,binnie

Guest


Nick - To the statisticians in our 'group" your analysis makes interesting ,if not disturbing, reading. Scoring goals is most definitely not one of the Socceroo's strong points with a miserable 1.4 goals scored per game in the last 13 matches so I suppose you are correct when you question their ability to score 4 or 5, even against the group's "whipping boys" Hope they re-act way outside their "norm" for all our sakes. Cheers jb.

2017-09-03T23:46:56+00:00

j,binnie

Guest


Strange to read so many comments re. our "good" performance against Chile and yet not one comment on the make up of the starting line up on that night. To aid the memory is was Ryan,McGowan,Sainsbury ,Milligan,Behich,Luongo Irvine and Troisi, Kruse Cahill and Juric, The 3 substitutes used were Leckie for Cahill,Wight for Sainsbury and McLaren for Juric. One has only to look at the names in that match and compare it with the run-on team against Japan to ask the question,whatever happened to the old adage,"never change a winning team". While the Chile " selection" did not "win" most on this site seem to agree the performance was far superior to that displayed against Japan. So much for continuity. Cheers jb.

2017-09-03T10:11:23+00:00

chris

Guest


Why would Fitzsimons be interviewing a football coach? Any wonder msm is going the way of the dinosaur.

2017-09-03T10:09:01+00:00

chris

Guest


Cheers Cal - had a listen. Foz does make the point of getting back to cut throat qualifiers etc. I'll take direct qualification thanks : )

2017-09-03T09:33:00+00:00

Caltex TEN & SBS support Australian Football

Guest


Lucy Zelic, for the men's national coach. :)

2017-09-03T08:29:32+00:00

Nick Symonds

Guest


Explainer: Socceroos WC qualifying state of play ahead of Thailand clash http://theworldgame.sbs.com.au/article/2017/09/03/explainer-socceroos-wc-qualifying-state-play-ahead-thailand-clash Japan captain out of Saudi Arabia match https://theworldgame.sbs.com.au/article/2017/09/03/japan-captain-out-saudi-arabia-match

2017-09-03T08:15:50+00:00

Nick Symonds

Guest


Craig Foster for national coach?

2017-09-03T07:31:13+00:00

Caltex TEN & SBS support Australian Football

Guest


Nemeses - good call, thanks for reminding us all---MacLaren and Sainsbury's chance was just about the best chance of either team.

More Comments on The Roar

Read more at The Roar