Could a Thailand loss be the Socceroos’ dream scenario?

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By Football_Wunderkind, Football_Wunderkind is a Roar Pro

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    Australia should defeat Thailand on Tuesday night but the important question to ask is “how much?”.

    Of course, ‘how many’ goals do they need to score is a pressing question also, because currently Australia is two goals behind Saudi Arabia – who are on the same number of points.

    Don’t get me wrong, I adore the Socceroos immensely and wish to see them qualify for the World Cup by thrashing Thailand on Tuesday night but how much money could the FFA make if things don’t go our way?

    If Australia qualify directly for Russia, the FFA stands to receive $12 million from FIFA, with $10 million of that being prize money and the remainder is to be used for preparation.

    $10 million is a lot of money and not be sniffed at but how much more money could the FFA collect if Australia finishes third and misses out on direct qualification?

    Back in 2005 when Australia played Uruguay at Stadium Australia there were conservative estimates of $12 – $15 million dollars earned.

    Part 1 of Australia’s qualifying ‘Moneyball’ play-off run would see Australia pitted against historic rivals Korea. Korea are currently second in their group but play away to Uzbekistan, who will be desperate to win to secure their own qualification.

    Facing Korea is a very real prospect and would sell out Stadium Australia of the MCG in hours. I prefer a Stadium Australia match as it was the venue for the 2015 Asian Cup final and a rematch there would be prefect.

    There would be $15 million generated for that game and after we defeat a goal-shy Korean side we move on to face the fourth best team in North/Central America.

    Part 2, in the FFA bean counters dreams, would see us pitted against Team USA. Currently third but equal on points with fourth-placed Honduras and only three games to play, the Yankees are stuttering bigly.

    Again it is a real possibility that the USA finish fourth and that would set up a massive final play-off for World Cup qualification. Play this one at the MCG and cram in 95,000 people and you would generate more than $15 million.

    Conservative estimates put a successful Socceroos indirect World Cup qualification run via Korea and then the USA at around $45 million. This is money that could be used to turbo boost grass roots football in Australia and help grow the game for years to come.

    The biggest part of me wishes that Australia had secured qualification already but they deserve to be in this precarious position after some of their recent uninspiring performances. A smaller part of me still desires the unbearable tension that was created in 2005 when we faced Uruguay at Stadium Australia.

    I leave it to the readers. Given the choice, do you take the $10 million for direct qualification, or would you like to see four more high-pressure Socceroos matches and a possible collect of $45 million?

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    The Crowd Says (48)

    • September 3rd 2017 @ 6:42am
      Waz said | September 3rd 2017 @ 6:42am | ! Report

      Talk about playing Russian Roulette with your qualification chances though lol. Getting to Russia the hard way would be financially attractive to the ffa as well as driving major media interest itself, but man – it’s a tough, risky road to take.

    • September 3rd 2017 @ 8:01am
      Caltex TEN & SBS support Australian Football said | September 3rd 2017 @ 8:01am | ! Report

      Of course, Stephen Lowy and David Gallop had plan this all along and instructed Ange Postecoglou, to stay with the back 3 concept to insure this scenario would happen. Roar readers—we have failed to see this well thought out conspiracy by the FFA. It’s all perfectly clear to me now…. Oh God, I feel so stupid!

      • Roar Guru

        September 4th 2017 @ 1:33pm
        Griffo said | September 4th 2017 @ 1:33pm | ! Report

        For sure, for all the cost of accomodation and flight etc. these extra legs would entail over any potential windfall (or lack thereof if not WC qualification)…

        …yeah I don’t think so 😉

    • September 3rd 2017 @ 8:16am
      holly said | September 3rd 2017 @ 8:16am | ! Report

      Good for the bean counters but would play havoc with the health of Socceroo supporters – let’s smash Thailand and be done with it !

    • September 3rd 2017 @ 9:32am
      anthony15 said | September 3rd 2017 @ 9:32am | ! Report

      The FFA would not disperse the funds correctly I can tell you now. Direct qualification should be a our goal.

      • September 3rd 2017 @ 11:41am
        Nick Symonds said | September 3rd 2017 @ 11:41am | ! Report

        “The FFA would not disperse the funds correctly I can tell you now.”

        Agreed.

    • September 3rd 2017 @ 9:45am
      chris said | September 3rd 2017 @ 9:45am | ! Report

      • Roar Guru

        September 3rd 2017 @ 10:51am
        Grobbelaar said | September 3rd 2017 @ 10:51am | ! Report

        Never a truer word spoken.

        • September 3rd 2017 @ 12:14pm
          Caltex TEN & SBS support Australian Football said | September 3rd 2017 @ 12:14pm | ! Report

          • Roar Rookie

            September 3rd 2017 @ 1:06pm
            Stevo said | September 3rd 2017 @ 1:06pm | ! Report

            Have had a listen and much of it makes sense about the way the team played etc etc… except where Fozz starts dreaming of not directly qualifying and then having to do it the hard way and all the advantages that would accrue when we made it to Russia. Lolz

            • September 3rd 2017 @ 1:17pm
              Caltex TEN & SBS support Australian Football said | September 3rd 2017 @ 1:17pm | ! Report

              Foz, is in on the FFA’$ money conspiracy 🙂

              • September 3rd 2017 @ 6:15pm
                Nick Symonds said | September 3rd 2017 @ 6:15pm | ! Report

                Craig Foster for national coach?

              • September 3rd 2017 @ 7:33pm
                Caltex TEN & SBS support Australian Football said | September 3rd 2017 @ 7:33pm | ! Report

                Lucy Zelic, for the men’s national coach. 🙂

            • Roar Guru

              September 4th 2017 @ 1:37pm
              Griffo said | September 4th 2017 @ 1:37pm | ! Report

              The memory may be leaking others opinions of Asian qualifying vs once-in-four-years meaningful tie but I thought Foz was for Asian qualifying originally.

              If he truely believes this one-in-four is psychologically beneficial then he’s off his proverbial goal line a bit too far 😆

          • September 3rd 2017 @ 8:09pm
            chris said | September 3rd 2017 @ 8:09pm | ! Report

            Cheers Cal – had a listen. Foz does make the point of getting back to cut throat qualifiers etc.
            I’ll take direct qualification thanks : )

    • September 3rd 2017 @ 11:39am
      Nick Symonds said | September 3rd 2017 @ 11:39am | ! Report

      In the last 3 matches against Thailand, Australia have had a 2-2 draw and two wins by 2-1.

      In the last 12 months Australia have played 13 matches scoring 18 times and conceding 19 with just 3 clean sheets and the Socceroos biggest winning margin was just 2-0 against UAE.

      The idea that Australia can just thrash Thailand by 5-6 goals is unlikely.

      It looks like the Socceroos will have to qualify the hard way.

      • September 3rd 2017 @ 12:12pm
        Caltex TEN & SBS support Australian Football said | September 3rd 2017 @ 12:12pm | ! Report

        Nick, we will hit 6 past the Thais on Tuesday night.

        • September 3rd 2017 @ 12:18pm
          Nick Symonds said | September 3rd 2017 @ 12:18pm | ! Report

          I hope so too and I like your optimism. But it won’t be a cake walk. Everything has to go perfectly and there’s no room for error.

          By the way, do you think Japan will go out and beat the Saudis 6-0 in their match?

          Wouldn’t that be a story.

          • September 3rd 2017 @ 12:39pm
            Caltex TEN & SBS support Australian Football said | September 3rd 2017 @ 12:39pm | ! Report

            It will be a cake walk—as the result against Japan, has fired a rocket up the Socceroos’ backsides. The Thais will face a much determined Australian outfit who have had a lot of bad press written about them—just the sort of motivation to fire them up for a repeat performance like they had against Chile. This will be a relentless grab for goals on Tuesday night. I expect no change to the system, with all of our top players coming in. The crowd will be electric and relentless and I feel the Thais will crack under all of that pressure after 20 mins into the game and it will be one way traffic after that.

            Japan, will play out a 0 – 0 draw, with players like Honda and Co. with a point to prove—to show their manager, they will be still needed for their WC appearance.

            • September 3rd 2017 @ 12:45pm
              Waz said | September 3rd 2017 @ 12:45pm | ! Report

              I hope you’re right …. but the bad press has been there for a year and it hasn’t worked yet. The Chile game was better than what preceded it but it was a game we were more likely to lose than win all the same …

              • September 3rd 2017 @ 1:08pm
                Caltex TEN & SBS support Australian Football said | September 3rd 2017 @ 1:08pm | ! Report

                Waz – this is the last roll of the dice for automatic qualification. Previously, the bad press was all on Ange’s 3 at the back system. This time all the recent bad press has been on them as a unit or squad. I can feel that, they will now feel like they have a point to prove individually and as a squad collectively, not just the starting XI—who ever plays on Tuesday night will be out there to prove a point to the whole of Australia—not just the Football community.

                I watched an interview this morning with Ange interviewed by Fitzsimons Ch 9. He asked Ange does he expect to be sacked if he loses against the Thais on Tuesday; well Ange gave him his answer in no certain terms.

                ABC Outsiders, were all questioning and critical of Ange’s ability to get us to the WC as well. I am confident we will get the 4+ goals needed to qualify on Tuesday night. And I am predicting a 6 nil hiding of the Thais.

              • September 3rd 2017 @ 1:20pm
                Waz said | September 3rd 2017 @ 1:20pm | ! Report

                I hope you’re right as I say. I’m not sure we’ll get through any other way (that’s not to knock our ability but it’s a hell of s journey to get through against some good teams).

              • September 3rd 2017 @ 8:11pm
                chris said | September 3rd 2017 @ 8:11pm | ! Report

                Why would Fitzsimons be interviewing a football coach? Any wonder msm is going the way of the dinosaur.

            • September 3rd 2017 @ 1:09pm
              platypusFC said | September 3rd 2017 @ 1:09pm | ! Report

              “It will be a cake walk—as the result against Japan, has fired a rocket up the Socceroos’ backsides”

              Hmm unfortunately (and frustratingly) how many times have both fans and pundits said this? How the bad press will reinvigorate the Socceroos, how the 3 back system will walk over the Asian opposition.

              How did we go in Bangkok? How did we go in Tehran? How did we go in Saitama?

              Obviously playing against your biggest regional rivals is not enough to fire up the players.

              “The crowd will be electric and relentless”

              Last few home games have been dour atmosphere. Not intimidating at all playing there compared to other stadiums.

              • September 3rd 2017 @ 2:35pm
                Caltex TEN & SBS support Australian Football said | September 3rd 2017 @ 2:35pm | ! Report

                And how did we perform against Chile? I rate this coming fixture above the importance of that Confederation Cup game. This game is going to be epic! The crowd will be in full voice. We have all to play for and the Thais have nothing to play for on foreign soil. I hope we get 70% of possession and run them ragged all over the park showing little respect and go for six goals—not taking our foot off the pedal after our third goal.

              • September 3rd 2017 @ 3:00pm
                Waz said | September 3rd 2017 @ 3:00pm | ! Report

                We weren’t that good against Chile though, we were just better than the dros that preceded it, and we still didn’t win. Watch it back and we really should have lost. A credible draw with the right intent yes, but not good enough for a win and certainly not consistent enough game to game.

                A back 3 is vulnerable to fast counter attacks down the flanks, the Thai’s will know this so are likely to sit deep and push hard down our vulnerable flanks. We could well score 4 and concede 3.

              • September 3rd 2017 @ 3:38pm
                Caltex TEN & SBS support Australian Football said | September 3rd 2017 @ 3:38pm | ! Report

                Chile, were the forth ranked nation in the world and we were 48th at that point in time and we fought hard and well and matched them in all departments. OK they may have had a few more shots on target. However, they didn’t take their chances. I’m pretty sure the Thais are ranked well below us (130 ?) so I don’t share your view that the Thais will punish us on the break at home. We will dominate and out play them in the air and on the floor—they will not get a goal and I would expect a clean sheet.

              • September 3rd 2017 @ 4:25pm
                Nemesis said | September 3rd 2017 @ 4:25pm | ! Report

                Totally disagree. Sainsbury had the chance to put AUS 0-2 up just before half time and he stuffed it up. Then MacLaren butchered a sitter from 1m out in the 2nd half.

                Australia should’ve won that match, or, at worst, it should’ve been a 3-3 draw. No way Chile should’ve won.

              • September 3rd 2017 @ 5:31pm
                Caltex TEN & SBS support Australian Football said | September 3rd 2017 @ 5:31pm | ! Report

                Nemeses – good call, thanks for reminding us all—MacLaren and Sainsbury’s chance was just about the best chance of either team.

              • September 4th 2017 @ 9:46am
                j,binnie said | September 4th 2017 @ 9:46am | ! Report

                Strange to read so many comments re. our “good” performance against Chile and yet not one comment on the make up of the starting line up on that night.
                To aid the memory is was Ryan,McGowan,Sainsbury ,Milligan,Behich,Luongo Irvine and Troisi, Kruse Cahill and Juric,
                The 3 substitutes used were Leckie for Cahill,Wight for Sainsbury and McLaren for Juric.
                One has only to look at the names in that match and compare it with the run-on team against Japan to ask the question,whatever happened to the old adage,”never change a winning team”.
                While the Chile ” selection” did not “win” most on this site seem to agree the performance was far superior to that displayed against Japan.
                So much for continuity. Cheers jb.

              • Roar Guru

                September 4th 2017 @ 1:42pm
                Griffo said | September 4th 2017 @ 1:42pm | ! Report

                JB – I think it’s well established that Ange likes to mix things up to keep everyone, even his own players, on their proverbial toes.

                I would agree with you although you would have to also look at how Chile played and compare to Japan setup.

                Also some players not fit enough may have weighed in.

                But true enough we can’t look at the Chile game in the past and go ‘See! we are good’ if we don’t put in similar performances against different opposition, with different players, under different conditions (short camp pre WCQ vs long camp for a tournament) – play for the now, plan for the future, don’t relive the past.

                A lot of variables…

            • September 3rd 2017 @ 1:21pm
              hauzenscher said | September 3rd 2017 @ 1:21pm | ! Report

              Biggest worry is how much Saudi Arabia FA have paid the referee…

              Honestly, the amount of soft penalties they have scored this qualifying round is more than suspicious.

          • September 4th 2017 @ 1:27pm
            Another Paul said | September 4th 2017 @ 1:27pm | ! Report

            I have to disagree, there is plenty of room for error. All we need is Japan not to lose and us to win by any score that’s the best case scenario. worst case qualifying scenario we lose 1 – nil and saudi lose 4 – nil and we overtake Saudi on goal diff. There are plenty of qualifying scenarios in between.

      • September 3rd 2017 @ 12:12pm
        R King said | September 3rd 2017 @ 12:12pm | ! Report

        I hope you are wrong Nick, but I’m thinking you may be right. Its is going to be a long night waiting to see what the Saudi’s do against Japan on Wednesday morning.

      • September 3rd 2017 @ 12:43pm
        Waz said | September 3rd 2017 @ 12:43pm | ! Report

        I think you might be right Nick, if the Roo’s underestimate Thailand we could draw or even lose. The best chance is if we can play out of our skins and get that small crowd revved up to roar them on – an early goal for us will do that, a goal against though risks turning the place in to a morgue. I’ll be watching on TV and I just hope it goes our way but I’ve seen the Thai’s up close this year – they’re big, string and skilful and – unlike the Socceroos- they won’t be hoping (relying?) on the weather to do them any favours; they’ll be up for this game and they’ll know they can write themselves in to Australian football history with a win.

        • September 3rd 2017 @ 2:39pm
          Nick Symonds said | September 3rd 2017 @ 2:39pm | ! Report

          “they won’t be hoping (relying?) on the weather to do them any favours”

          I just came in from outside and there was a distinctively warm northerly breeze that felt like it was blowing in off the desert. If there’s a big system behind it and the warm air from the north clashes with the cold air from the south then the weather could certainly be an issue.

          • September 3rd 2017 @ 3:03pm
            Waz said | September 3rd 2017 @ 3:03pm | ! Report

            If the grounds frozen and there’s snow falling the Thai’s may struggle. Anything even only a few degrees warmer than that then they will be fine. If we end up with extreme wet/windy weather it will suit a draw or low scoring game – not what we want.

      • September 4th 2017 @ 9:58am
        j,binnie said | September 4th 2017 @ 9:58am | ! Report

        Nick – To the statisticians in our ‘group” your analysis makes interesting ,if not disturbing, reading. Scoring goals is most definitely not one of the Socceroo’s strong points with a miserable 1.4 goals scored per game in the last 13 matches so I suppose you are correct when you question their ability to score 4 or 5, even against the group’s “whipping boys”
        Hope they re-act way outside their “norm” for all our sakes. Cheers jb.

        • Roar Guru

          September 4th 2017 @ 10:26am
          Grobbelaar said | September 4th 2017 @ 10:26am | ! Report

          In the current WC qualification series, we have averaged 1.55 goals per game and conceded 1.1 goals per game.

          If the latter had been 0.9 goals per game, we virtually would have qualified by now, these are the margins we are talking about.

          Depending on what happens in the Saudi v Japan game, Australian scoring 2 goals against Thailand may well be enough.

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