Can the Parramatta Eels keep their error rate down low enough to give themselves a chance of beating the Storm in Melbourne in the first week of the finals?
There will be plenty of other factors at play as well, of course, but none will matter if the Eels make too many mistakes.
Drop the ball too much and Melbourne will have them for what would be an early dinner, given it’s a 4:10pm kick-off at AAMI Park on Saturday.
The thing is though, Parramatta know they have to take some risks to be in with a chance of beating the odds-on premiership favourites.
Canberra had the right attitude when they went to Melbourne in the final round, but they couldn’t execute their gameplan remotely well enough and ended up losing 32-6.
The Raiders moved the ball quickly to get it out wide, to test the rival centres and wingers in defence. Sometimes they shifted back inside before it got that far wide. All the while they were on the lookout to offload.
The tactics were designed to try to move the defence around and stop the Storm from getting numbers in the tackle, but for that to work you just can’t give the ball up as often as Canberra did.
Half as often would have been bad enough.
Canberra had 15 offloads to Melbourne’s six, but they also had 14 errors to the Storm’s five. The Raiders completed at 71 per cent and the Storm 86. An average-at-best defensive team like the Raiders can’t afford to turn the ball over that often, particularly against a team as disciplined and relentless as the Storm. That story ends the same way every time.
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Parramatta coach Brad Arthur will come up with a specific plan, designed to weaken the Storm’s recognised strengths. He won’t, as many coaches have done, play the percentages in the hope that his opponents are off their game and his team can grind out a narrow win.
You have to at least try to force Melbourne out of their comfort zone. Your defence has to be terrific, but to actually win the game you have to be prepared to take options in attack that have some element of risk about them.
I’m not talking about crazy stuff, but swift passing of the ball even when the defence is moving up on you, sending it back inside when the opposition isn’t expecting it, cutting players out with long balls.
The best way to beat Melbourne with your attack is from a distance. Working your guts out to just occasionally get down inside their 20-metre area and then hoping the close proximity to the try-line will work in your favour with however many tackles you’ve got left is never enough.
The Storm, with their defence set, will stop you in the red zone way more often than is any good for your chances of winning. So you must be sharp, be prepared to mix things up a bit, and there will be times when you simply have to be brave – and that is just to put yourself in the contest.
The Eels have got the players to make things happen, in Mitchell Moses, Corey Norman, Semi Radradra, Michael Jennings and Nathan Brown. But then you’ve got to keep the mistakes to a bare minimum – probably so few that you can count them on one hand.
I don’t know if the Eels can do that on the road against the runaway minor premiers, but if they do we could be in for one hell of a contest.
If they cough it up too much they’ll pay the price that every team pays under those circumstances against Melbourne, but one thing for sure is that Parramatta will go down there with the aim of making something happen rather than waiting for something to happen.
And that will make this clash fascinating to watch – at least for as long as the Eels can stay in it.
jasper
Guest
lol, this talk can be of any team in the top eight that is the underdog on the day, it is called finals and it is generally knockout, if your in front on the score board because you won and extra game or 2 during the season then lookout. Saying this Eels have the hardest job out all all the underdog teams in this round of the finals ...
bbt
Guest
Plus Vunivalu was sin binned for 10 minutes.
Peter Phelps
Guest
Take risks and they don't come off and Melbourne will punish you. I agree that conservative play won't beat them but just ad hoc play without a plan is likely to come unstuck.
Peter Phelps
Guest
I doubt that the Eels are good enough to beat a fully fit Melbourne STorm. I know they won earlier in the year but the Storm had 6 rep players out that day to the Eels 0 and they struggled for long periods in that game. Against a fully fit Melbourne, playing good footy with great momentum and another Smithy record to celebrate, the Eels have no chance.
Oingo Boingo
Guest
You have to admit Jimmy , for such a small piece of bait, the bite ratio was very good . Bellamy a Lizard , I thought that was common knowledge .
Tom G
Guest
...and maybe the two wingers and forward pack.. conversely if the Eels lose Norman they're pretty much shot
Tony
Guest
To be fair he has that look about him.
Matt
Guest
Was only three seasons back, so may not be too out of place to diagnose Short Memory Syndrome. Panthers not given a snowball's chance in hell of taking down the Rooster Minor Premiers in game one 2014 - but we all know what happened. Not an expert, nor man or woman on the street thought any different before the game. Only the Panther faithful gave them a chance, and half a chance at that. Not to say people here don't know their stuff, because they surely do if they think the Storm should take out anyone in their way. I would just like to remind the way Super Teams can strangely unravel through September. Minor Premiers Dragons of 2009 spring to mind. Unbeatable most of the season, but when the weather turned hot, they just couldn't stand the kitchen. Not to say this will happen to the Storm, but let's also not go as far as saying, that it won't.
Patrick Logan
Roar Rookie
What? Doesn't Lord Cameron Smith hold most of the records including 356 games as ref?
Worlds Biggest
Guest
Add to some courage in attack the Eels discipline will need to be excellent, they can not give away cheap penalties. They must be very controlled in everything they do. If they can manage that and stay in the fight then who know's. Storm should be too strong but would love to see the Eels go toe to toe with them.
Jason Frost
Guest
If they take out any one of slater/ smith/ cronk/ munster. Parra wil win...
no one in particular
Roar Guru
The Storm are like a slow cooker. It looks like nothing is happening for a long time and then. all of a sudden. you're done
BleakCity
Roar Rookie
Probably correct about attacking Melb's right side though Jennings & Moses (mostly) play on the other side. They certainly won't be trying to bust them up the middle with their small pack v storm.
Wild Eagle
Guest
Nothing in the world is more boring than a conspiracy theory. To those boring lot who are consumed by them, facts which support these wild theories are the only time they will ever be of any interest to an intelligent person.
The Fatman
Guest
Storm will not lose in Cameron's big game. They will all play out of their skin for him.
FrozenNorth
Guest
I'd relentlessly kick to touch, on the 4th and 5th tackle even. Just mess with their heads.
Jimmmy
Guest
I agree Greg. You just will not beat Melbourne in a grinding type game. Set for set is their forte. Offload , offload , offload. Think pass. Never , ever , ever take the two points ( unless tied and its in the last minute);. You will not beat Melbourne without risk so their is always a chance you can lose by thirty . It's either that or play conservatively and guarantee you lose by 10.
Jimmmy
Guest
Oingo , Oingo, Oingo, next you will be telling me Bellamy is a lizard !
bbt
Guest
Last Eels vs Storm game, the Eels belted us in the first 20 minutes. After Storm got themselves together, it was a close contest. Kicking to Semi allowing him to run free was pretty dumb. Gutherson played well, so he will be missed. It will be a cracker of a game, I forecast.
Richard POWELL
Roar Rookie
How about we all agree to enjoy the next month, eliminate narrow minded comments like this one and concentrate on the positives. Great article Chris.