Prior to this year, three teams in the AFL era have had multiple weeks off during their finals campaign. It ended badly for all of them.
Back in 1990, the finals system of the day meant minor premiers Essendon rested during the opening week of finals. After the qualifying final between Collingwood and West Coast was a draw, there was a replay – extending the Bombers’ stint on the sidelines another week.
This led to the bizarre scenario of the Bombers running out for their first final on September 23.
On that day the Bombers were flogged by a Collingwood side who had just played consecutive finals matches – and the same Magpies would go on to beat them again in the grand final. Kevin Sheedy still talks about his side’s lost momentum that year.
The other two teams to rest twice obviously did so last year, after the AFL introduced the pre-finals bye weekend.
We know what happened. Qualifying final winners Geelong and the GWS Giants had played just one game of footy in the three weeks leading up to their preliminary finals. A sluggish Cats were beaten by the Swans.
The Giants, though more competitive, fell to a history-making Western Bulldogs side which won the flag from seventh.
Ahead of this week’s preliminary finals, the impact of the bye is sure to again be a talking point. There will be arguments for and against. Clubs will publicly play down its impact and insist it can’t be used as an excuse.
But know this – if a repeat of 2016 occurs and both Adelaide and Richmond fail to advance to the grand final, the post-Round 23 bye cannot stand.
(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
Having a single week off is almost always an advantage. In finals during the AFL era, teams after a week off playing against a team who did play the week before have a 73 per cent win record.
Modern training methods may have made the benefit even more pronounced – between 2007 and 2014, every home preliminary finalist won through to the grand final.
But resting twice in the space of three weeks is a different equation.
You can’t replicate a game of finals football on the training track. Even if you could get close, the intensity of finals football is on another level. The stakes are higher. If you’re not on from the first bounce, you will be exposed.
Asking a team to play a side that’s had two consecutive weeks of such football as preparation and dressing it up as a reward seems highly disingenuous.
At best, the bye waters down the advantage of winning the qualifying final. At worst, it actually hands the advantage to the other side.
The record of teams who have been in that situation to date backs up the latter.
AFL boss Gillon McLachlan is a fan of keeping the bye. He says it allows teams finishing fifth through eighth to give it a decent crack rather than just make up the numbers.
“I actually think before the bye, statistically, nobody really ever came from outside the top four,” he told 3AW. “We were almost running a default top-four. So if you can now win from five to eight, I’m okay with that, as long as the higher you go up the ladder, the more advantage in the top eight.”
(AAP Image/Julian Smith)
That’s all noble, however this isn’t about getting the exact perfect balance between giving players rest before finals and distributing advantage with absolute fairness. If it were, you’d keep the bye and then go straight to a 1v8, 2v7 style knockout format (commercially, with fewer games, this is a non-starter).
What it’s really about is having the least problematic, commercially attractive finals series – and the fear at this point should be the post-Round 23 bye interferes with that.
Fremantle coach Ross Lyon, in a commentary role last season, said it was “indisputable” the Cats’ slow preliminary final start against the Swans was linked to their lack of playing time in the lead-up.
“It’s now a potential negative that if you have the week off, win the first final, it’s one game in 27 days. It’s a concern,” Lyon said.
Hawthorn’s Alastair Clarkson is also off it.
This year, it’s the turn of Adelaide and Richmond. The Crows will play just their second match in 26 days on Friday. The Tigers will play their second in 27 days on Saturday.
Both will start as favourites, both are hosting interstate teams.
If both don’t get through, the bye has got to go.
Leonard
Guest
Besides, if soccer wishes to become more mainstream, it needs to adapt on the lines of 'When in Rome, do as the Romans do'. 'Finals' is what we do, and the (now much maligned) NSL did Finals for most of its 40 year existence. (And isn't it what most top-tier sports competitions do?)
Milo
Roar Rookie
Why is the fact relevant: "Under this system, minor premiers have won 6 of 17. This would suggest that the double bye doesn’t have a huge influence..." None of the minor premiers under this current final eight system had double byes - or am I missing something?
Dalgety Carrington
Roar Guru
Massive difference in conditioning between then and now though.
Raimond
Roar Guru
NOTE: Other teams won the minor premiership/premiership double during the Final 5 system, without going undefeated. The 2000-2016 figures are overall.
Raimond
Roar Guru
Under the Final 5, minor premiers won 7 of 19 premierships in straight sets. Under this system, minor premiers have won 6 of 17. This would suggest that the double bye doesn't have a huge influence on who eventually wins the flag, although there are obviously many factors in this.
TC123
Guest
And the Lions who made the final didn't play a single NZ side until the semi final which happened to be played in South Africa. The worst competition format in world sport in my opinion
truetigerfan
Guest
That's right.
Dalgety Carrington
Roar Guru
There's almost certainly an issue with form caused by the bye. I'm not sure how you could prepare for it adequately, given there are 22 blokes you're trying to get to play cohesively as a team. As for the physical fatigue side of things, it is questionable just how much more rested you'd be than blokes who have had a bye two weeks before.
Dalgety Carrington
Roar Guru
When I looked at it last year using 7 regular seasons worth of data (09-15), the bye seemed to have had a pronounced effect on results, when one team had a bye the week before and the other didn’t. What I found was that the normal winning percentage for home teams (sans bye differential) was around 56% and away teams at 43% or so. The home teams winning percentage would jump to 72%, while (more relevant in this case) the away teams winning percentage jumps to around 61% if the other team had the bye the week before and they didn’t. Finals are a bit of a different kettle of fish particularly with the higher energy-sapping nature of it. Abandoning the stats for a second, the benefits of resting from the bye seems to carry on for a few weeks and also reduce the advantage of the week off for the QF winners.
Dalgety Carrington
Roar Guru
When I looked at it last year using 7 regular seasons worth of data (09-15), the bye seemed to have had a pronounced effect on results, when one team had a bye the week before and the other didn't. What I found was that the normal winning percentage for home teams (sans bye differential) was around 56% and away teams at 43% or so. The home teams winning percentage would jump to 72% , while (more relevant in this case) the away teams winning percentage jumps to around 61% if the other team had the bye the week before and they didn't. Finals are a bit of a different kettle of fish particularly with the higher energy sapping nature of it. Abandoning the stats for a second, the benefits of resting from the bye seems to carry on for a few weeks and also reduce advantage of the week off for the QF winners.
Mango Jack
Roar Guru
Agree, PD, as with most rule/schedule changes it takes some time for teams to adapt, and the better clubs will do it faster.
Slane
Guest
If you finish in tge top 4 you get the benefit of playing against a dud team in your first game. That seems like a pretty significant advantage to me.
Dalgety Carrington
Roar Guru
No not a dead issue, it'll just go under the radar. The double bye doesn't pre-determine the game's outcome, it's just likely to have an undue influence.
JD
Guest
I remember that game. I'm pretty sure Brisbane got closer than anyone to Carlton in that finals series event though they finised eigth. Carlton flogged everyone else.
Razzle Dazzle
Guest
Its a joke this pre finals bye. If a side is nearing the end of the season and cannot lose their spot of course they're still going to rest players still! It wouldn't make a difference in having a bye or not. The bookies had a big sookie sookie lala about it because they couldn't make a betting market on it! Gil only bothered to ask sponsors about having it and of course they like it because it gives them an extra week of marketing their products on punters!
Dalgety Carrington
Roar Guru
So no Bulldogs premiership then?
Dalgety Carrington
Roar Guru
Most of the reason for the pre-finals bye is to eliminate any need for coaches to prepare for the finals by resting players en masse. So, to meet that objective, the second bye would best be place within the last few rounds. Certainly agree that having it across just one round is a lot less messy and fairer in general.
Pumping Dougie
Roar Guru
Keep the pre-finals bye. It's great for footy. Coaches just need to adapt. Coaches just need to get smarter at preparing their teams for the prelim finals. Last year was the first time we had teams given a rest 2 out of 3 weeks - surely the coaches just need some experience in managing this, just as clubs have all improved over time at learning to travel and still perform. Science would say that an extra week's rest indisputably has to be a physical advantage to the resting teams. It's not as if they're coming off cold from a pre-season. They've already played 23 games over 26 weeks. So the issue - if there is an issue - is 'between the ears'. Surely that is just a matter of good preparation. Coaches and their support team need to improve how they psychologically prepare the players to be ready to go, so that they can take full advantage of the extra week's recovery.
Mango Jack
Roar Guru
Yes they do, but it's pretty contentious. Come A-L finals time there are usually several articles in this forum by fans wanting it scrapped. Regardless, it's here to stay as it brings big money and exposure. Just as finals do for the AFL and NRL.
MG
Roar Rookie
I have no problem with clubs playing their 2nd XXIIs in round 23. If your team is from or travelling to Perth it is fair strategy to reduce travel for their best players. Most top 4 teams won't risk it because they will want to have continuity in the team and 5 - 8 will probably lose in week 2 of finals anyway.