The ultra-definitive NRL grand final stats preview, Part 2: Team comparison, key players and prediction

It’s here. The 2017 NRL grand final has arrived.

NRL Grand Final live scores and blog

Yesterday, we looked at the form lines of the North Queensland Cowboys and Melbourne Storm, as well as the history between the sides and how the refs are likely to impact the game.

Now, it’s time to see how the teams – and the players within each line-up – compare.

Let’s start by matching up each side’s offence with the opponent’s defence.

How they score and concede

Both these sides are playing away from home. To get as wide a sample as possible we’ll compare the Storm’s scoring and conceding record – by ten-minute segments – against all top eight sides this season and the Cowboys’ equivalent record against all top four sides this season.

Storm attack/Cowboys defence

Here is North Queensland’s big problem: it looks like the Storm will score early and they are great frontrunners. Further, all but the second ten minutes of the first half looks fertile for the men in purple.

The Storm have been in front at half-time in 19 games in 2017. They’ve won 17 of them. The Cowboys have been behind at half-time 11 times in 2017. They’ve lost seven of them.

The 51st to 60th minute-period is another big problem for the Cows, as is the last ten minutes. If these averages bear out, it is going to be really tough for the North Queenslanders.

Cowboys attack/Storm defence

This just doesn’t show the Cowboys scoring enough points. Only the period from the 11th to the 30th minute show promise. But it all looks pretty grim for Paul Green’s men.

Statistically predicted score: 21.5–16.1 Storm

Last week it was this stat in the Cowboys’ favour that got me to back them. The odds are not in their favour here.

Storm attack versus Cowboys defence

Team stats – average per game 2017

Cowboys attack versus Storm defence

Team stats – average per game 2017

From this, we can say that the Storm will:

• Make the best part of two more line breaks than the Cowboys, and two more tackle breaks.
• Score 1.1 more tries than the Cowboys.
• Make one more error and concede one extra penalty than the Cowboys.

North Queensland’s amazing ability for forcing drop-outs is countered by the Storm’s refusal to be forced, while both sides’ meterage is identical. Identical.

It’s this last point that could be the key. It tells us that maybe this game will come down to the better field position – Cooper Cronk’s kicking versus Michael Morgan’s. Maybe those two extra possessions will help the Cowboys too.

Player stats: Defence

Both these sides have so many great tacklers. While Cameron Smith will be the king defender on this paddock, the calibre of the tackling stayers on display here is worthy of the first Tuesday of November at Flemington. The worst missed tackler on the park will be Ethan Lowe, but his goal-kicking makes up for it.

For halves, Cameron Munster, Te Maire Martin and Morgan are hardly turnstiles in the missed tackle category. The only half whose surname doesn’t start with ‘M’ isn’t even listed among the worst tacklers, so good is Cooper Cronk’s defence.

When it comes to conceding penalties, only big Nelson Asofa-Solomona and Jake Granville rate a mention. But both only register a 2 on the Maloney Scale, barely enough to shake jelly.

(AAP Image/David Moir)

The errors are mostly in the back three, as you’d expect. However, in most cases, they are errors made at the right end of the field.

Note again that Cronk, although he handles the ball more than all but Cam Smith and Jake Granville, does not show his head in the most error-prone players. The bloke with footy’s most crooked snoz is all business.

Player stats: Attack

There is some superb tackle-breaking power on display in this match. The raw power of Jason Taumololo and the electric and rapier-like attack of Billy Slater may alone be worth the price of admission. And they both have plenty of support.

However, you’d have to say that the Storm backs are slightly more dangerous overall in this regard.

Look at those line breaks and tries from Suliasi Vunivalu and Josh Addo-Carr. Make no mistake, they are the key to the Melbourne attack. If the Cowboys are to win, those two must be controlled.

Taumololo cannot be allowed to run his average metres if the Storm want to win. Last week he made a massive 21 runs for 244 metres – truly match-winning stuff.

When it comes to try and line break assists, the contest between Cronk and Morgan is huge. However, Melbourne’s halfback has great support from Billy Slater and Cameron Munster, who rank above Morgan’s back-ups in Lachland Coote and Jake Granville.

Look at the offloads of Slater and Munster. Both better than Taumalolo for the Cows. Impressive.

(AAP Image/Julian Smith)

The danger men

Cam Munster: While the Storm’s big three get most of the attention, this kid has snuck under the radar a bit. However, he took to Origin this year like a duck to water. A very aggressive duck. A great defender, he’s likely to be gung-ho in attacking the Cows line.

Cameron Smith: While he made one of the best concession speeches of all time, you can betSmith hated losing last year’s grand final like kids hate Victorian period dramas on the ABC. He wants to win this so bad it hurts. And that’s very bad news for whoever is in his way.

Suliasi Vunivalu: Apparently the big Fijian has a bit of a mouth on him. I’ll tell you what else he has: great speed, great strength and great hands. Antonio Winterstein is facing his biggest challenge of these finals.

Michael Morgan: I had the privilege of interviewing Morgan after his Round 17 match over the Raiders. He’d just given a masterclass in guiding his side around the field, winning field position, forcing multiple drop-outs and scoring two tries himself. I asked him if he believed that he could take the Cowboys all the way in 2017 in the absence of Johnathan Thurston. He said yes. You’d better believe that he can.

Jason Taumololo. It surprised me a bit when he won the Dally M last year, but he has backed it up in 2017. In my interview with Morgan, I asked the Cowboys half, “How good is it playing behind Jason Taumololo?”

The answer? “So good. It’s the best. It’s just great,” to which I followed up, “Do you wish he was a Queenslander?”

“I’m just glad he’s not from NSW!”

Fair point. I’d rather try and tackle a car.

(AAP Image/Julian Smith)

Te Maire Martin: This bloke can get forgotten in this team. However, as the Roosters found out in the 24th minute last week, he knows the way to the try line given half a sniff.

Grand final experience

Grand final experience counts for lots. It helps a player settle into the game and to not get overawed by the occasion. Both of these sides have lots of experience in the final game of the year.

For the Storm, only five players – Felise Kafusi, Curtis Scott, Josh Addo-Carr, Nelson Asofa Solomona and Slade Griffin – have not played in a grand final.

The Cowboys have even fewer grand final debutants, with only four players – Te Maire Martin, Coen Hess, Corey Jensen and Shaun Fensom – having not played in a decider before tonight.

Who’s going to win and why

I’ll admit it: I want the Cowboys fairytale to come true. I’m even starting to believe it will.

While putting these stats together I searched for reasons they could do it. They’ll control possession. They’ll get the best field position. Jason Taumololo will go on a rampage.

However, North Queensland have taken advantage of the luck that has come their way. Their opponents have made crucial errors and had brain explosions. To their credit, the Cowboys have grabbed their opportunities with both hands.

But who in the Storm is going to make those crucial errors or have brain explosions? I guess Felise Kafusi, Nelson Asofa-Solomona or Josh Addo-Carr could have shockers, I guess. Maybe.

I just don’t see it, though. I see a Melbourne Storm side that isn’t just a superbly drilled and disciplined unit which plays low-risk footy and pounces on errors. They still do all that, but they’ve added to it some of the most exciting and adventurous attacking play I’ve seen.

They have been so clearly the best side in 2017, and they deserve to win this title.

While the Cowboys could jag a result here, the Storm should take this match, and the premiership.

Prediction: Storm 1-12