AFL free agency opens for 2017 on Friday, and while the year has seen the list of prospective free agents whittled down significantly, there are still some big names there, including former Brisbane Lions captain Tom Rockliff.
For the next few days I’m going to look at one player who might move clubs in detail per day. For those who have been following my list management series, I’ll be looking at Adelaide and Richmond after the trade period. For now, let’s talk Tom Rockliff.
Footy changes pretty quickly – a few years ago I would’ve said with confidence that Rockliff would be a Lion for life. The passion and loyalty he showed for the club in those days was second to none.
Now instead a bloke who once took a parting shot at players leaving the club on Twitter is set to walk out himself, with the word being that unless something changes dramatically soon, he’ll be playing at either Port Adelaide or Carlton next year.
Why has this happened? We can only speculate, but personally I suspect that Brisbane have played some if not most of the role in Rockliff’s decision to leave.
They’re aware that Rockliff leaving by free agency, netting them a top 20 compensation pick, is probably the best thing for the club, and that may well have led them to put in front of him a contract offer designed to prompt thoughts of more lucrative possibilities elsewhere.
Footy isn’t entirely a business, but it’s at least a little partially a business, and even a romantic loyalist knows how to read the writing on the wall – and when it’s a young man starting a family, a larger financial offer is the sensible decision rather than a greedy one.
It’s taken some time for likely destinations to emerge however. Port Adelaide were first mentioned a few months ago, Carlton only in the past few weeks.
Rockliff has gone through the classic cycle in the AFL of being underrated, to being overrated, to now being so often criticised as overrated that he’s become underrated again.
He’s a game-mashing inside midfielder who can win clearances and rack up possession like few others – and he’s not a bad pinch-hitter up forward, either. He is a limited player in some respects but what he’s good at, he’s very good at, and you know he’ll deliver with consistency and reliability.
(AAP Image/Joe Castro)
For this reason alone he’s a perfect fit at Carlton. They’re looking for mature midfielders who can protect the kids long enough for them to develop, and Rockliff offers this in spades.
He’ll be 28 when the next season starts so it’s reasonable to ask if he’s at all likely to play in Carlton’s next premiership. Conventional wisdom would say no, but conventional wisdom hasn’t gotten a flag right in at least two years.
However Rockliff isn’t just a logical fit for Carlton in an on-field sense – he’s also an acquisition that, despite his age, makes perfect sense for their overall list strategy.
When I reviewed Carlton’s list in August I said that the best move this offseason would be for the Blues to trade Bryce Gibbs and sign Tom Rockliff to replace a decent portion of his output. To toot my own horn a little, this was before news of Carlton having a genuine interest came out.
It’s simple logic – trading Bryce Gibbs will net the Blues draft picks, but because Rockliff is a free agent, signing him won’t cost them any. If the Blues can spin whatever they get for Gibbs into a trade for Devon Smith and Matthew Kennedy, then they’re effectively getting three quality players (two of them quite young) for one – it’s got my thumbs up.
As for Port Adelaide, they would certainly benefit from having Rockliff in the side but personally, I don’t believe he is the smart choice for them to recruit.
They’ve got some great contested ball winners already and while it’s always handy to add more depth in that area, they surely only have so much more room in the salary cap to spend, and have to do this on their top priorities.
For mine, their number one focus should be finding more players who can kick goals – and unless they plan to reinvent Rockliff as a high half forward, which isn’t the worst idea but not the best one either, this should probably rule him out.
On top of that, signing Rockliff – or Steven Motlop for that matter – will immediately cancel out any free agency compensation they might have otherwise received for the impending departure of Jackson Trengove.
That would only be worth a second-round pick at best but in a season where Port have already traded away their first-round pick, something, anything, is better than nothing.
Whether it’s a wise move or not it appears that Port certainly are putting in an offer to Rockliff, but they’re also reportedly targetting Motlop and Jack Watts, and I doubt they’ve got the salary cap space available to bring in all three.
(Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)
As for Rockliff’s perspective the decision likely comes down to two factors – the chances of onfield success, and the best choice for the future of his young family.
In nine seasons and 154 games Rockliff has never had the chance to play in a finals match, never even gotten close really, and so the chance to have some immediate success is something that will surely be tempting.
That is obviously more likely at Port Adelaide than it is at Carlton, given the respective finishes of both clubs last year, though if Rockliff can play out another four or five years he’s every chance of experiencing September footy at the Blues.
He has to be aware that Carlton are not recruiting him with the idea of him being a premiership player however, but as a mature player who can guide a developing young generation.
Port Adelaide on the other hand very much are looking at him as someone who could play a premiership side as soon as 2018.
As for what the best choice is for Rockliff on a financial level, this is something we can only speculate on without knowing the strength of the relevant offers. Carlton would certainly have the salary cap room available to make a larger offer than Port Adelaide, though that doesn’t necessarily mean they have.
Carlton may also have some appeal as being located in Rockliff’s native Victoria, which would presumably place Rockliff much closer to the rest of his family than Port Adelaide, a consideration which goes beyond the financial component of the deal.
My tip? Port Adelaide have many targets this year and surely cannot afford all of them, so they will have to work out an order of priority at some point. If Rockliff is not at the top of it, then he will most likely sign a deal with the Blues.
Expect that to land Brisbane either an end-of-first-round or second-round compensation draft pick. Given they finished on the bottom of the ladder, it makes no difference – they’ll have picks 18 and 19 either way.
Mattyb
Guest
That's exactly right Pedro,and I'm glad you understand what's going on,I think David does also.i certainly think the AFL needs to look into this like you've said. I can easily see Brisbane getting pick two,I can also see GC fiddling around with Motlop to get Geelong band one comp which they'll get back in a predetermined deal for Ablett. I can see Brisbane going into this draft with picks 1&2 and GC with two early picks and people are going to howl. With Lobbe,as I've explained in another article also, I think Port will do the Rockliff trade to get him off the books and help Brisbane in doing so in other ereas,dodgy ones.
Pedro The Fisherman
Roar Rookie
It will be about where Rockliff's salary sits in Port's salary cap. If it is top 5% then Brisbane will get Pick 2. If not then it will be Pick 18 (or thereabouts subject to other compensation picks). All up though, the AFL should look closely at the deal if Lobbe is dragged into it as that could be classified as draft tampering? Lobbe is a 2nds player at Port and therefore not worth his current contract value.
Mattyb
Guest
David,that's exactly how I see it playing out. The Rockliff,Lobbe,compensation pick are all going to heavily intertwined and both clubs are going to come out big time winners.Port and Brisbane have played this very well. I wouldn't be surprised if to get Lobbe to Brisbane,Port will sign Rockliff to a huge two year deal with a gentlemans agreement for what happens after that,possibly another two at a reduced rate.With the AFL maybe keen to help Brisbane out I can see them pushing for band one compo.
Pedro The Fisherman
Roar Rookie
There is a guy (I think) on here with an Arts degree majoring in nothing that thinks Carlton want to sell Gibbs and that he is worth 2 First Round Picks. Waiting .... Waiting ....
Macca
Guest
David C - the Lions would lose either 12, 18 or 19 to get Cameron you would expect.
David C
Guest
Port will let Lobbe go for almost nothing to compensate for the high salary that Brisbane will pay. Port in return will give Rocky a large contract to pump up the compensation pick to Brisbane. Win Win for both teams. Brisbane end up with picks 1, 12, 18 and 19 plus pick up Lobbe for a 5th rounder or thereabouts. Port get Lobbe's salary off the books and get Rocky for nothing.
Dalgety Carrington
Roar Guru
Interesting that Port could land Rockliff, Motlop and Watts. That's a fair bit of a senior playing pool who have had their characters questioned in recent times.
Macca
Guest
Pedro - so that promise not to converse with me lasted what, 23 minutes. "They are degrees not subjects you clown!" Stop embarrassing yourself, here is the definition of subject; "a branch of knowledge studied or taught in a school, college, or university" You can get a degree in economics, marketing and law but that doesn't mean the aren't subjects. I have one degree in which I studied all 3 subjects (I forgot I did 1 unit in 1 of them). Now can you try and last more than 23 minutes!
Pedro The Fisherman
Roar Rookie
Dear Sir/Madam It gets funnier. They are degrees not subjects you clown! How is that arts degree looking? Another 5 or 6 years and you will be qualified to mop my kitchen.
Macca
Guest
Pedro - You obviously don't know the meaning of the word slander, observing something is tiresome because you can't grasp a basic concept that has been explained to you numerous times isn't slander - it is stating the bleeding obvious. "As they say, you ain’t no lawyer son! " And I sincerely hope you stick to your word and stop conversing with me. PS - I actually studied 2 of the subjects you mentioned above at tertiary level.
Pedro The Fisherman
Roar Rookie
You are very funny Macca - not funny laugh ... Just funny / weird. Slander is what you did in your previous post but you are obviously not sharp enough to recogn ise it. As they say, you ain't no lawyer son! We can strike out Law, Economics and Marketing degrees for you in this one stream. Just add me to the long list of people that won't converse with you (there are a few in this stream as well). PS: Yes - we knew about both Charlie and Lever leaving before the finals.Whatever will we do with all of those first round picks? Perhaps we will use them to pick up players that will help us to slide down the table to 16th. Now where have I seen that strategy before? Bye for now - I can hear your mother calling!
Macca
Guest
Pedro – “”when the debate is lost, slander becomes the t 00 l of the loser,” Obviously you just realised you accidentally made my exact point in your previous post (” If they knock on your door and ask the price of your house then they (not you) will determine if a sale proceeds at your inflated price.” Adelaide determine if the sale goes ahead but Carlton set the price) but just can’t walk away gracefully. Anyway thanks for playing – better luck next time
Macca
Guest
Pedro - ""when the debate is lost, slander becomes the tool of the loser," Obviously you just realised you accidentally made my exact point in your previous post (" If they knock on your door and ask the price of your house then they (not you) will determine if a sale proceeds at your inflated price." Adelaide determine if the sale goes ahead but Carlton set the price) but just can't walk away gracefully. Anyway thanks for playing - better luck next time.
Pedro The Fisherman
Roar Rookie
Tiresome and Macca. Synonyms. Repetitive - that is another. Belligerent ... Yep. Having to have the last word despite not being able to comprehend. ... the list goes on.
Macca
Guest
Charlie Cameron has confirmed he wants to go to Brisbane - if Adelaide do want Gibbs they will have plenty of first round picks to offer.
Macca
Guest
Pedro - this is becoming tiresome due to your incapacity to understand a pretty simple concept. If we go back to the house scenario, you say "If they knock on your door and ask the price of your house then they (not you) will determine if a sale proceeds at your inflated price." Which is exactly what I have been saying, IF the sale goes ahead it will be "at your inflated price." I believe Gibbs will stay at Carlton, Carlton want him and he is contracted, IF Adelaide decide they want him they have to pay the "inflated price." If they don't pay the inflated price Carlton are happy because the keep a required player, if the do pay the inflated price Carlton are happy because they got an inflated price. Either way as I said way back at the start - " if Adelaide want him they will have to pay Carlton’s price, if not Adelaide miss out." And "the willing buyer willing seller" is economics not marketing - the fact you confuse the two explains a lot. PS there might be a big difference between 2nd and 16th but they have 1 thing in common - nobody plays to finish in either spot.
Pedro The Fisherman
Roar Rookie
Very funny Mucca You seem to be confused as to the differences between economics and marketing! Economics will tell you not to produce the product. Marketing will help you to sell it of you do. There is no demand from Adelaide for Gibbs - why would you be stating that there is? Adelaide has not commented on Gibbs or his availability but Carlton has. Perhaps they have created the product and are now trying to market it? Hmmm! People often buy things that they don't need (a want if you will) but the price has to be right to make that sale. If they knock on your door and ask the price of your house then they (not you) will determine if a sale proceeds at your inflated price. If the price set by Carlton for Gibbs is too high without reference to the market then Carlton will not be making a sale and they will be stuck with the product which now has a limited market value. PS: There may not be a huge difference between 2nd and 16th but I am pretty sure I know which outcome is preferred.
Macca
Guest
Pdero - to quote the great Ricky Bobby - "if you're not first, you're last". Adelaide's midfield wasn't good enough to win the premiership, they did "something right" but clearly not enough, as you yourself say "they will need to lift again next year", adding a player of Gibbs talents helps that. Gibbs may be "just another mid fielder" at Adelaide but clearly they need another midfielder. "You are aware that price is determined by supply and demand" again you are looking at this incorrectly. You should look at the economic theory that states "At the end of the day every sale needs a willing seller and a willing purchaser" - the blues aren't a willing seller so IF Adelaide want to get Gibbs they need to offer enough to make the become willing. The thing you don't seem to be comprehending is that I am not saying that Gibbs fair market value is 2 first round picks nor am I saying that Adelaide will/should pick Gibbs up - I am simply stating that should Adelaide decide that they need Gibbs to ensure they take the next step next year they will have to pay the blues price. Try thinking of it this way, if I put my house on the market I sell it at the market price, if someone knocks on my door unsolicited and says they want to buy my house I sell it at a premium.
Pedro The Fisherman
Roar Rookie
Hey Macca You are aware that the 2 best sides in the comp played in the GF last week and one of those sides was Adelaide? They must be doing something right? You are aware that at Adelaide Gibbs is just another midfielder. not the star midfielder that he is in the Carlton side? You are aware that price is determined by supply and demand. If the demand isn;t strong then neither is the price!
Macca
Guest
Pedro - Could you point to where I have said the Crows would have won the GF with Gibbs in the side? I have said the Crows might regret not having Gibbs if they lost the GF by a kick but that is a different thing. Gibbs has made it obvious where he wants to play - Carlton. I dare say he would be happy at the Crows as well but he isn't desperate to get out. "Adelaide hasn’t suggested that they are chasing him, and they patently don’t need him but would take him if the price was right." - That may well be (although the only way you could say they patently don't need him is if they had won the GF) but my point is that Adelaide are price takers, the blues set the price, if Adelaide want him they pay the price the blues want - that has nothing to do with what Gibbs is worth on the market, only what he is worth to the Blues. As for Cap space - the blues have plenty, Thomas' contract has finished, Gibbs and Murphy's contracts were heavily front ended so they aren't paying them a tonne ( and given the blues have front ended Gibbs contract it makes them less willing to let him go) and the salary cap just got bumped way up - no pressure to get rid of him at all. On the midfield battle last week, you are aware that it is possible for both teams midfield's to play well in the same game aren't you.