One of the surprises of the Melbourne Cup, now less than a week away, is that Godolphin might not have had a runner until we received confirmation of Hartnell’s entry on Monday.
The global operation did send down a few Cup runners from trainer Charlie Appleby, in Francis of Assisi – who won last year’s Queen Elizabeth Stakes – and Qewy, the Geelong Cup winner, Melbourne Cup fourth-place getter, and Sandown Cup winner from last year.
Francis Of Assisi suffered an injury, enough to rule him out of the spring entirely. Since then, Godolphin decided to change course with Qwey.
He was guaranteed a Cup start, and was all set to go into the Geelong Cup before Appleby decided against it. They thought about the Moonee Valley Cup, but then shifted him to today’s Bendigo Cup, just six days from the big one.
The operation surprised many by coming out to say that Qewy might not even start in the Melbourne Cup unless he performs very well in the Bendigo Cup today. They might just send him to the Sandown Cup instead.
Something’s up with Qewy, and his Melbourne Cup is in the balance.
Appleby’s travelling foreman, Chris Connett, has been talking up the horse while the operation shuffles him around.
“It’s all guns blazing for Bendigo and we’ll see where we stand after that,” Connett said. “Hopefully he goes and wins nicely at Bendigo and then that opens the door for Melbourne. If he doesn’t, then that might close the door.
“It’s nice to see him carrying some condition. We’re very positive that he’s fit and will do himself justice there at Bendigo.
“He’s bouncing. He’s just been getting better and better each day.”
These positive comments are enough to make you think he can carry 59kgs in the Bendigo Cup and win. He’s an accomplished stayer, and relished Australian tracks when he found the form of his life.
His form back home certainly wasn’t good post-Australian trip, and you’d have to believe something has been or wasn’t quite right with the horse since he’s been here. Godolphin aren’t saying that – Appleby himself said they “couldn’t be happier”, so we’ll find out today what it all means and if he just loves Australian tracks.
He lines up in a field of seven, and will likely lead and make it a staying test. There are at least two other hot chances in the race who will put it to him.
One of those is Foundry, the Group 1 Metropolitan (2400m) winner who is currently 29th in the Melbourne Cup Order Of Entry. It’s remarkable that a recent Group 1 winner isn’t quite there yet but he was a lightweight in a fairly weak Metrop, and needs to win here to receive a weight penalty to climb high enough to make the field.
The problem is that he was fairly disappointing last start, beaten by a mile in the Herbert Power Stakes, when not all went right for him. The vets didn’t find any problems post-event, so if you can forgive a bad day when he just didn’t want to be there, Foundry’s a live chance here.
The other hot chance is Kiwia, the Darren Weir-trained, light-raced stayer who has been making his way through the grades well. He was frankly excellent in the Group 3 Coongy Cup (2000m) when he defeated Samovare after being last on the turn and did it tough out wide. Money has come and he might even be the favourite for the race by the time gates crash open.
If he brings that form against these more proven horses he’ll a) go into Melbourne Cup calculations for 2018, and b) ruin the chances of Qewy and Foundry for 2017 as well.
The others in the race don’t look up to the top three. Both Meet And Agree and Big Memory are capable horses – the former is having his first attempt at 2400m, while Big Memory is a country cups horse that hadn’t shown much until last start, where he ran a decent fourth in the Moe Cup, finishing late.
Khartoum broke his maiden at this track two starts ago, and was then fourth at Caulfield over 2400m. I couldn’t have him on that. Skulduggery has had two goes at this distance without a result and if that changes here I’d be amazed.
Plenty hinges on the performance of both Qewy and Foundry today, with the Bendigo Cup run at 4pm, local time.
kv joef
Roar Guru
terrific race. anytime they get under 2:28 for the 2400m things are good and for them to track record in such great style added further merit. he can put a horse together that Appleby fellow :-) .
Tristan Rayner
Editor
He and Kiwia were good weren't they, cleared out from the rest. A friend thinks Kiwia could get to Group 1 level if Weir keeps bringing him along. Big call, but trusted advisor on these matters!
Tristan Rayner
Editor
(Hope he starts! They're not hugely committal...)
Tristan Rayner
Editor
Well done - he's about 1/4 that price now!
Nathan Absalom
Roar Guru
Top tip again! I took Qewy this morning at $81 to win the Cup with a power up, don't think I'll see that price again. Unfortunately Max Dynamite seemed to have shortened since Frankie Dettori was announced as riding Almandin....
Diamond Jackie
Roar Rookie
I think we will all find that the Metrop Form (as usual) will only show which horses have little to no chance in the MC.
kv joef
Roar Guru
Have been very impressed with the Weir horse, Kiwia. Big Memory was good at Moe. So we might see a race that shows us where Qewy is at? Like you've hinted Tristan, maybe there is a few weak links in the amour.
Haradasun
Guest
Don't think he was set for MC last year. Was brilliant 1st up this prep winning over 1400m and in my view has been progressively screwed down for a MC challenge. Forgive last run when skittled and his form reads great. He has run 2nd to Humidor and Bonneval in sharper races and if you took the view it was a cup stayer tuning up for the race then that formline reads pretty well. I reckon they have set him for this all along as he has proven he can run the trip (on class alone too). Interesting he will be on the fresh side for the cup too. But honestly I think that's part of the plan for him. Lots of chances as always but definitely think he has a shot.
Tristan Rayner
Editor
Good luck on both - I'm concerned about ol' Max Dynamite, he's done nothing back home. Four runs in two years! And 2015 was such an odd race as well... but respect Willie Mullins, of course. Let's see about Qewy! 'Aussie' Qewy was huge.
Tristan Rayner
Editor
I'm writing my Cup preview at the moment. I hear what you're saying - it all depends on what Qewy does today for all concerned. Just on Hartnell, Humidor this year maps like Hartnell did last year. Great form (better form?), classy, unsure about getting the 3200m. Hartnell did it last year off class alone in my view, but isn't going as well and this time his preparation is worse, and he carries more weight, even if he gets relief from Almandin. The speed in the big race - which is by no means clear - might tell us if these guys will be able to unleash a sprint rather than being forced to sustain a very long sprint home which doesn't suit.
Tristan Rayner
Editor
Weird race that Metrop, especially if Foundry doesn't go on with it. Chocante was third and is back in NZ after bombing out later! (I had a few bob on him early as a wet track hope)
no one in particular
Roar Guru
Foundry came through a weak Metrop, but all the staying races are weak this year. 1st, 2nd and 4th in the MV Cup all came through the Metrop, with Big Duke winning post Metrop also.
Haradasun
Guest
Qewy Ran on for 4th in the MC last year and jumps 1.5kgs in weight to 53kgs. Hartnell meets him level at the weights from last year and was 2 lengths ahead of him. Just on this equation not sure how he is going to improve his position on last year's performance? Also Almandin jumps 4kgs from last year. I know no one has carried 57.5kgs to win since adam was a boy, but I really don't think Hartnell is as 'out of form' as has been reported by everyone. You have to give him some chance seeing as though he finished 3rd in 2016 and is very well weighted against Almandin. However if you are prepared to concede that Harntell isn't a winning chance based on the weights, then the same has to apply to Qewy as they meet each other level at the weights from last year. I like Kiwia for this today. Too much weight for Qewy
Nathan Absalom
Roar Guru
Another excellent summary of one the Country Cups. I'm already on Qewy and Max Dynamite for the Cup, as I reckon a lot of horses that race well on their first trip to Australia tend to do well when they come out and race again. Think Red Cadeux, Dunaden, Americain and Persian Punch. So yeah, Kiwia is an impressive horse, but I'm keen on Qewy today as well.