No room for the top three in Freddy's New South Wales team

By ScottWoodward.me / Roar Guru

The top three New South Wales players in the NRL didn’t make Brad Fittler’s Blues team published in May.

These are players who will influence the result of a game, based on a presumptive analysis from my system.

Rank 2018 Influential Players Position
1 Johnathan Thurston 6 or 7
2 Cameron Smith 9
3 Michael Morgan 6 or 7
4 Jason Taumalolo 13
5 Tom Trbojevic 1
6 James Tedesco 1
7 Anthony Milford 6
8 Daly Cherry-Evans 7
9 Matt Moylan 6
10 Sam Burgess 13

The output only reveals three players from the state of New South Wales in the top ten – Tom Trbojevic, James Tedesco and Matt Moylan – and they were all absent from Freddy’s team published by the Daily Telegraph in May.

For reference, here is that team.

Brad Fitler’s NSW team
1. Josh Dugan, 2. Blake Ferguson, 3. Jack Bird, 4. Jarryd Hayne, 5. Latrell Mitchell, 6. James Maloney, 7. Mitchell Pearce, 8. James Tamou, 9. Robbie Farah, 10. Andrew Fifita, 11. Tyson Frizell, 12. Boyd Cordner, 13. Jake Trbojevic

Interchange: 14. Tyrone Peachey, 15. Wade Graham, 16. Paul Vaughan, 17. David Klemmer

The biggest surprise is Josh Dugan at the back in place of Tedesco, who is the incumbent Blues fullback and was arguably Laurie Daley’s most effective player in this year’s Origin series.

Tom Trbojevic missed Game 1 this year through injury, but he has a similar rating to Tedesco and has the added versatility of being able to play fullback, wing or centre.

Matt Moylan also had setbacks and his form for new club Cronulla will determine selection, but like Tedesco and Trbojevic, he is a match winner who creates points.

The thinking behind Fittler’s selection of Dugan was interesting, citing a strong kick return as the primary reason.

One of the key reasons St George Illawarra have disappointed fans in recent years was because they have been unable to create scoreboard pressure and the highly paid Dugan was at fault with below-par try assists, tries and linebreak assists while playing fullback.

There is no denying Dugan’s ability, but to play a key spine position, a passing game is essential, and the Dragons opted not to get into a bidding war when the Sharks wanted him.

There is no comparison when discussing Tom Trbojevic and James Tedesco against Dugan as a fullback. They are both prolific in creating opportunities that lead to points.

Dugan was outstanding in the Rugby League World Cup when coach Meninga shifted him from his Origin and sometimes club position of right centre to play left centre inside Valentine Holmes. He showed he has a passing game with five try assists, but that form is diluted somewhat against weak opposition.

(AAP Image/Lukas Coch)

Veteran prop James Tamou was another surprise in the Fittler 17 with recent Kangaroos Reagan Campbell-Gillard, Jordan McLean and starter Aaron Woods overlooked.

Also, the exciting Latrell Mitchell comes in for Brett Morris, who has since retired from representative rugby league. Mitchell has struggled in defence for the Roosters when playing on the wing and is expected to have opposition from Kangaroo Josh Mansour and Josh Addo-Carr, who posted 23 tries this year for the Storm.

As usual, the halves pairing will attract most interest and Fittler agreed with Daley and Peter Sterling in selecting Mitchell Pearce and James Maloney.

New members of the Fittler inner circle are Andrew Johns, Danny Buderus and Greg Alexander. This is good for Pearce as Johns was a specialist coach at the Roosters and, like Buderus, was a key influencer in him moving to the Knights.

Also, Alexander has replaced Peter Sterling as selection advisor to the coach and if we are to believe what the Panthers are saying, young halfback sensation Nathan Cleary is not ready for the cauldron of Origin.

Many considered Dragon Paul Vaughan unlucky to miss out on selection this year and he makes Fittler’s bench along with Panther utility Tyrone Peachey. Also, the controversial Robbie Farah is the hooker in place of Nathan Peats.

Farah was one of the form players in the RLWC when he moved to halfback for Lebanon and was brilliant in leading them around with young half Mitch Moses, who also will come under Blues consideration.

Obviously, form in the early rounds will have a major impact on the team for Game 1 at the MCG on June 6, and we can expect a fundamentally different line up to the one selected by Freddy last May after a couple of cuppas with Brandy and the boys.

Maroon coach Kevin Walter would hope that he doesn’t make too many changes.

The Crowd Says:

2017-12-10T00:11:52+00:00

Steve

Guest


I agree with Dugan at fullback but Hayne,Pearce,Tamou,Fifita all overrated Farah has proven over the years not up to origin anymore,Mitchell not yet maybe in a couple more years,and Peachey shouldn't even be in the conversation he just not good enough ever.I am a staunch Dragon's supporter but i think Vaughan was great at the beginning of last season but fell away lots from the middle to end of season and showed he was a bit soft so he wouldn't be up to this class either.

2017-12-10T00:00:32+00:00

Steve

Guest


If that's the team Fittler is wanting well you might as well give the trophy to Queensland now.

AUTHOR

2017-12-08T04:47:17+00:00

ScottWoodward.me

Roar Guru


Alex Thanx mate

2017-12-08T00:04:41+00:00

Albo

Guest


I think that the NSW brains trust have Cleary & Moylan earmarked as the key halves combination in their hopes of a Blues dynasty coming up . Whether they use them in 2018 or give them another year to further develop we will see in 6 months time. I think Cleary is ready now, and if Moylan can avoid the Cronulla distractions, I think he should go in as well. Whilst Moylan would have put Gus' nose out of joint leaving the Panthers, Fittler, Brandy & Gus all know how good a player he is, if he is fit and happy. I think it would be a backwards step reverting back to Pearce & Maloney again when you a trying to build a new Blues dynasty that Fittler keeps talking about.

2017-12-07T06:22:00+00:00

Alex L

Roar Rookie


Hi Scott, Happy to; coaching is a results based business where winning games is pretty much the only way to ensure another contract, media is an eyeballs based business that's really about getting people watching, clicking, and commenting. So a person in a media role has different motives to a coach when asked to list a team, and, I think importantly, has much less personally riding on their decisions. It doesn't count against Brad Fittler as a commentator and columnist to make some unusual decisions in a team list if they make for an interesting discussion point that engages the viewer, as a coach though making an unusual choice is a much riskier venture.

AUTHOR

2017-12-07T00:34:38+00:00

ScottWoodward.me

Roar Guru


Bleak, Yep everyone changes their mind and I am sure Freddy has and will from last May. Teddy was a "gimme"! He and Tom T are the 2 best players in NSW and he can only play 1. I agree he does not have Tom's passing game but he is by far the best tackler breaker of any fullback in the NRL with a massive 8.2 per game. Note Dugan is 5.8 and Tom is 4.1. His try assist figure of 0.4 is very respectable and has improved. FYI, Laurie did not have anyone penciled in and was very open minded who would run out for game 1. History says he got it right as NSW smashed Qld at Suncorp. Despite the non pass from Hayne in G2 and the poor discipline from the Maloney and Graham, my feeling is that Tom T would have got them home had he played.

AUTHOR

2017-12-07T00:22:36+00:00

ScottWoodward.me

Roar Guru


Hi Alex Can u expand on your point plz, I missed it?

AUTHOR

2017-12-07T00:21:07+00:00

ScottWoodward.me

Roar Guru


William Yep JT is out which is why he rates #1 in the NRL next year as he will be able to play for the Cows during origin and partner Te marie Martin, a massive boost.

2017-12-06T23:44:56+00:00

BleakCity

Roar Rookie


In fairness to Fittler he picked this team early season (May?) whereas these rankings (2018?) I can only assume were done at the end of the year? As you stated, Tom was unavailable (and he still has a lot of errors in his game) and Moylan (not sure how he ranks so highly) has had a year to forget (or explain) on a number of levels. Whilst I would have gone with Tedesco it was not a gimme selection pre game 1 (and really he didn't come close to matching that performance in the other games). He is also not a renowned passer either. Tamou just has not picked up his game this year but if he was a Qldr would certainly have been picked for game 1 based on past service. The rest of the selections were either in the team selected or picked by a vast majority of "experts" in their sides so not really many surprises there. Besides form can be fleeting. RCG got better as the year went on (Latrell & Tyrone didn't) and who would have thought Michael Morgan wouldn't turn up in the RLWC final. I just hope he hasn't penciled in 80% of his side in preseason like Laurie does. I also hope he is objective and we don't end up with the Penrith/Easts/Newy blues team.

2017-12-06T15:25:06+00:00

Alex L

Roar Rookie


The role of a commentator / panellist is at times that of a provocateur, I think that needs to be considered a bit with any team someone in that position lists.

2017-12-06T12:40:12+00:00

Edward Kelly

Roar Guru


Nope Scott, it takes out what I call, the "NSW Pearce factor" that has been crippling NSW for years, where the retired experts pick the team in the media weeks before the first game which is completely devoid of any current form. Supercoach weighs up the positives and the negatives and tell you who is in form at the crucial time.

AUTHOR

2017-12-06T10:26:22+00:00

ScottWoodward.me

Roar Guru


Edward That would not work Ed. Supercoach is a rating system, but it does not rate key spine players, especially the general, properly.

2017-12-06T09:08:35+00:00

William Dalton Davis

Roar Rookie


Hasn't Thurston retired from rep footy as well? Or has he put his hand up for one more run around if needed?

2017-12-06T08:08:30+00:00

Jacob

Guest


Moylan and Maloney played in the halves G3 2016, why not another crack like that?

2017-12-06T07:59:57+00:00

terrence

Guest


This system has put "food on (your) plate since 2000''? Which brand is your favourite, Chum or Pal?

2017-12-06T07:27:05+00:00

Maroon Blood

Guest


There is a fair bet that Slater will join his mate Cronk in representative retirement and, as you say, Inglis coming back to top form from his knee injury is certainly not a certainty. Boyd, Oates, Chambers, Gagai and Holmes would make up my backline for next year. The Cooper/JT-less halves is where the selectors are going to have some serious thinking to do and will certainly depend massively on the early season form of Ben Hunt/Ash Taylor/DCE to see who partners either Munster or Morgan in the halves. Both the M's are ball running type #6's, not creative players, so need proper #7 as a foil. On the forwards front, a successful return by Matt Scott would be absolutely massive for Qld's chances as there is daylight between him and players like Napa, Wallace and Glasby and precious little else on the horizon for the prop dept at the Maroons. Is it June yet??

2017-12-06T07:11:58+00:00

Edward Kelly

Roar Guru


I would just pick the best NSW supercoach players. That way you get the form players. Also gets rid of the politics and club loyalties from Fittler and Brandy.

AUTHOR

2017-12-06T07:10:26+00:00

ScottWoodward.me

Roar Guru


SOUVALIS, Your 3 guys all rate very highly.

2017-12-06T06:43:21+00:00

thomas c

Guest


I'd assume they'd go with someone they'd blooded, but form could come into it. If morgan gets halfback, you'd probably put munster (or mbye) on the bench. very similar player, offering the same injury cover. A relatively junior halfback might bring DCE into consideration. The halves and forwards questions are interesting, but this year was something of a warning in terms of the dangers of injury. And we've not seen if scott and Inglis will be the players they were. they'll have barely been seen on a paddock in about a year and a half.

2017-12-06T06:38:26+00:00

souvalis

Guest


In regards to your influential list,I’d change your bottom 3,based on this years form to 1. Luke Keary,who scares me(as an opposing teams fan) every time he touches it and runs to Latrelles wing...2. Gareth Widdop,who had a sensational year considering who was partnered with..and 3. Sean Johnson who is the pulse of that side..when he disappears so do his sides chances,which unfortunately happened too often this past season..at least equal to Cherry anyway...

More Comments on The Roar

Read more at The Roar