Where will your side finish in 2018? (Part Two)

With the 2018 season approaching and one of the closest finishes in recent memory anticipated, yesterday I began my preview of the upcoming year, offering my thoughts on the likely bottom four sides in 2018.

Today I reveal the sides I believe will just miss out on a finals berth this year.

12th – Newcastle Knights
To all the dreamers who believe that Newcastle will make the finals in 2018 I have one message: wake up. Nathan Brown has certainly purchased wisely during the offseason, with signings such as Tautau Moga, Aidan Guerra, Jacob Lilyman and Chris Heighington adding vital depth, while the arrivals of Mitchell Pearce and Kalyn Ponga should provide Newcastle with strike power in attack.

Nevertheless, this is still a side that has won three straight wooden spoons. While the Knights should avoid adding to this tally in 2018, a finals appearance would be stunning given the miraculous turnaround necessary in defence.

From 2015 to 2017 the Knights have averaged 16.5 points per game while conceding 28.6 points. By way of comparison, in the past three years the team that has finished the regular season in eighth place has averaged 19.6 points per game and 18.7 points conceded. This highlights that while Newcastle are not far off in attack, their weakness in defence is still a considerable hurdle they must overcome to qualify as a top eight side.

It remains to be seen how Newcastle’s largely new predicted spine of Ponga, Connor Watson, Pearce and Danny Levi will perform together. Their four positions are crucial to Newcastle’s attack, and while Watson and Pearce may have spent some time together, it still will take time before combinations click.

There appears to be a growing belief that Newcastle’s new recruits will return them to their first finals series since 2013. However, I am not so sure that their issues can be fixed so quickly.

(AAP Image/Darren Pateman)

11th – South Sydney Rabbitohs
After claiming a drought-breaking grand final victory in 2014, the Rabbitohs have quickly faded into mediocrity following back-to-back 12th place finishes in the past two years. Their poor recent form saw premiership-winning coach Michael Maguire sacked in favour of Anthony Seibold, who will be tasked with guiding the Rabbitohs towards their first top eight appearance since 2015.

South Sydney’s chances of success are boosted by the return of classy fullback Greg Inglis. It remains to be seen how the Australian and Queensland representative will bounce back from the devastating ACL injury he suffered in Round 1 last year. If he is able to rediscover his brilliance, the Rabbitohs will boast an impressive backline given the arrival of Newcastle Knight Dane Gagai. Yet Gagai will also need to improve given that he only managed two tries in 22 games last year.

The Rabbitohs forward pack is one of their major strengths, headlined by the departing Angus Crichton and inspirational Sam Burgess. However, the pressure is building on George Burgess in particular, who has struggled for consistency in recent years.

An area of contention at Redfern in 2018 is also the hooking position, with Seibold recently declaring his preference for an 80-minute hooker – a move which could spell the end of the career of Robbie Farah. Despite enormous potential, too many question marks hang over the Rabbitohs of 2018.

(AAP Image/Action Photographics, Colin Whelan)

10th – Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs
Will a new coach and spine be enough to spark Canterbury’s spluttering attack? In 2017 the Bulldogs struggled to post points, averaging just 15 points per game. As a result, despite making the finals in five of his six seasons at Canterbury, coach Des Hasler was moved on and replaced by Dean Pay.

In his first move towards sparking his side’s attack Pay has opted to shift Moses Mbye to fullback and William Hopoate to centre. Mbye experienced a disappointing 2017 season, managing just two tries and four try assists from 22 games, and the rise of Matt Frawley threatened to see the 24-year-old forced out of Belmore. Bulldogs fans will be hoping that a new spine, including new recruit Kieran Foran, can alleviate Canterbury’s attacking woes.

Pay has also assured fans that the Bulldogs of 2018 will be reignited – that the ‘dogs of war’ mentality absent in 2017 will be reborn again. If Pay is genuine in his desire to rediscover a Canterbury culture, the losses of Josh Reynolds and skipper James Graham are significant blows given the passion both players had for the Blue and White.

Former Tiger Aaron Woods has been recruited to make up for the noticeable absence of the inspirational Graham. Meanwhile, Reynolds has been replaced by Foran, a risky purchase given his past two seasons at Parramatta and New Zealand. Unfortunately Foran’s questionable signing does not convince me that the Bulldogs’ attacking problems will be quickly resolved.

(AAP Image/Dean Lewins)

9th – Manly Sea Eagles
The halves merry-go-round has been the major talking point of the 2018 off-season and threatens to derail the top eight hopes of Trent Barrett’s Sea Eagles. The release of five-eighth Blake Green to the New Zealand Warriors suggested that Manly would soon be announcing the signing of Mitchell Pearce in a move that would have certainly boosted their premiership credentials. Instead, Pearce opted to join the Newcastle Knights and the Sea Eagles were left without an obvious option for the five-eighth role.

While Daly Cherry-Evans is certainly capable of leading his side without an established halves partner, the greater concern would be the possibility of Cherry-Evans suffering a significant injury.

When combined with salary cap investigations, the Sea Eagles enter the 2018 season under a cloud of uncertainty. The departures of Brenton Lawrence and Nate Myles have left a considerable hole in Manly’s forward pack, though the recent signing of former Dragon Joel Thompson somewhat rectifies that issue.

In what shapes as a highly competitive year for spots inside the top eight, Barrett’s choice at five-eighth may well define Manly’s fate in 2018.

By the process of elimination you should now be able to figure out my predicted top eight for 2018. But where will the eight sides finish exactly? Keep an eye out for my next instalment to find out.

In the meantime, let me know in the comments below if you agree with my forecast so far.